Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts


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The Balance of Payments (BoP) for 2Q2021/22:  Overall balance recorded a deficit of USD326 million; Current account deficit was slightly down to USD3.8 billion, as trade deficit went down to USD10.6 billion, mainly as oil exports went up to USD5 billion up from USD2.9 billion; Tourism recorded the highest revenues at USD3 billion, FDI recorded the same level of USD1.6, net portfolio investment recorded an outflow of USD6 billion.

Egypt’s Fuel Automatic Pricing Committee (FAPC) raised fuel prices for various octane grades by EGP0.25 per liter, while keeping the price of diesel and mazut for strategic industries fixed.

Agriculture Ministry added India as a new wheat import origin. Egypt is also in talks with Pakistan and Mexico to import wheat. 

Authorities will begin trials of the ACI digital customs tracker for air freight in mid-May. 

Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) could launch a sub-fund responsible for managing the sale of state-owned companies on the EGX under the government’s privatization program. 

The government studying Arab and international offers submitted by 6 companies to invest in the production of hydrogen and green ammonia in Egypt. 

Ten Gulf companies operating in different industrial sectors are studying investment opportunities in the Burj Al Arab region. 

The General Authority for Land and Dry Ports will issue the conditions booklet to bidders in its tender to establish and operate the Tenth of Ramadan dry port next month, at an estimated investment cost of EGP2bn.

Unemployment rates in Egypt decreased by 0.5 ppt in 2021, to 7.4. 

COMI 1Q22 net profit post minority recorded a robust EGP4,244 billion (+26% q/q, +48% y/y), on the back of 1) strong non-interest income driven by profit from selling financial instruments and forward FX deals revaluation, 2) provisions reversals, and 3) stable effective tax rate. The stock is trading at P/E 2022 of 6.2x and P/B 2022 of 1.1x. 

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) has withdrawn its bid to acquire a controlling stake in HRHO. MSCI inclusion should support stock performance. 

Banque Misr, Misr Insurance Holding, Misr Life Insurance and the National Investment Bank (NIB) has sold its 38.7% stake in Incolease for a total of EGP316.9 mn. Transaction implies a P/E of 10.0x and a P/B of 1.2x.

CIRA results for 1H21/22: Net profit recorded EGP283 mn for 1H21/22 (+23.3% YoY); Revenues recorded EGP944 mn in 1H21/22 (+24.4% YoY) backed by a rise in revenues from both the higher education and K-12 segments. CIRA is currently trading at a FY21/22 P/E of 18.5x and an EV/EBITDA of 9.5x.

Taaleem results for 1H21/22: Net profit saw an 8% y-o-y increase to EGP 139.5 mn; Revenues also rose more than 5% y-o-y to EGP 334.1 mn, despite a 48% drop in new admissions; NUB raised its average tuition revenue per student by more than 7% y-o-y to EGP 52.3k, reflecting an increase in the number of revenue days compared to the same period last year. 

AUTO will retire 8.5 mn shares treasury shares and reduce the paid-in capital; BoD agreed on establishing a company in Kenya under the name GB Auto Kenya, as well as an Egyptian company under the name of GB Automotive for Trading and Production. AUTO is currently trading at a FY22 P/E of 3.2x and an EV/EBITDA of 6.5x. 

 

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