Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts


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The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by another 25 bps on Wednesday hinting to the end of its tightening cycle.

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Egypt’s sovereign credit rating for the first time since 2013, cutting it to B from B+ with a negative outlook.

Egypt’s net foreign reserves inched up to USD 34.55 bn in April from USD 34.45 bn in March.

IMF MENA Director: “There is strong collaboration between the Fund’s team and Egyptian authorities,” and “Egypt is serious about having a flexible exchange rate.”

Egypt generated a current account surplus for the first time since 2014 in 2Q FY22/23 due primarily to falling imports, with the following key developments:

  • Egypt’s trade deficit recorded its smallest deficit in 12 years in 2Q FY22/23, narrowing to USD 6.45 bn from USD 10.64 bn a year earlier. This was driven by a 20% decline in imports, which fell to USD 17.99 bn. Exports rose to USD 11.54 bn, down 3% y-o-y. 
  • Tourism revenues rose 9% y-o-y to USD 3.25 bn. 
  • Suez Canal receipts rose 17% y-o-y to USD 1.97 bn. 
  • Foreign direct investment climbed 52% y-o-y to USD 2.43 bn. 
  • Net portfolio outflows of USD 855.4 mn during the quarter.  
  • Remittances from Egyptians abroad fell 25% y-o-y to USD 5.56 bn.  

The Finance Ministry has penciled in oil prices of USD 90 per barrel for FY23/24 budget.

Egypt’s PMI rose to 47.3 in April from 46.7 in March, where non-oil private sector contracted at its slowest pace in six months as inflationary pressures normalize.

The government has raised the price of diesel by EGP 1.00 to EGP 8.25 per liter, leaving gasoline prices unchanged.

The government plans to raise spending on subsidies and social protection programs to offset the impact of inflation. The price of the subsidized bread loaf will remain unchanged and so will its weight.

The President on Wednesday inaugurated the opening session of the National Dialogue.

The EGX is looking into adding gold and aluminum to the list of commodities trading on the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange (EMX) during 2H23. 

ORHD AGM approved the sale of three land plots in El Gouna: a 24.6k sqm plot for EGP150.1 million, a 15.8k sqm plot for EGP196.3 million, and a 4.9k sqm plot for EGP43.5 million, rendering a total of EGP390.0 million for 45.3k sqm, implying a price of EGP8,600/sqm. This is equivalent to USD284/sqm which is higher than historical transactions (excluding a historical beachfront transaction) and is higher than the USD23/sqm price (which takes into account an 86.0% discount due to the size of the land plot) we use to value the residual land in El Gouna in our EGP15.32/share FV.

Aldar Properties seeks to remain a long-term investor in Egypt and aims to expand OCDI’s land bank in West Cairo, East Cairo, and the North Coast.

According to local media, real estate developers are considering having upcoming sales contracts linked to input costs.

The family office of the head of AIH (JAF Investment) has submitted a binding offer to acquire significant minority stakes in two of AIH’s subsidiaries. It has offered to purchase a 30% stake in SME finance firm UE Finance for EGP147 million and a 30% stake in Rawaj Consumer Finance for EGP30 million in two all-cash transactions.

AiBank revenues expanded by 61% in 2022, recording EGP1.8 billion. Net profit stood at EGP525.6 million in 2022.

EXPA is studying two offers to sell its administrative headquarters located in New Cairo at EGP820 million. Sources stated that if the sale of the building is completed, the buyer will be committed to lease it in favor of the bank.

SKPC 1Q23 net profit reached EGP520 million (+107% YoY, +5% QoQ).

The Cabinet approved draft bills giving the Oil Ministry the go-ahead to sign four oil exploration contracts in the Gulf of Suez and two oil and gas exploration contracts in the Eastern Mediter

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