Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts


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Egypt’s Foreign Reserves inched up to USD34.81 billion in June, adding USD130 million MoM. Unofficial foreign currency reserves increased by USD708 million, reaching the highest level since February 2022 at USD9.58 billion.  

Egypt’s oil and gas exports fell more than 50% y-o-y in the first four months of 2023 to USD3.17 billion in January-April 2023. Natural gas prices have plunged and local production has also declined in recent months, partially compensated by rising imports from Israel.  

ESRS (FV: EGP54.60, OW) reported consolidated results for 1Q23 with attributable net income recording a negative EGP1.7 billion, due to a forex loss of EGP8.9 billion during the quarter. Consolidated revenues soared to EGP27.8 billion (+49% YoY, +19% QoQ). The surge in revenues was mainly price-driven. Total sales volume dropped to 1.2 million tons. GPM was at 30.5% for the quarter. ESRS is trading at EV/EBITDA of 2.0x.  

TAQA shares will begin trading on the EGX today at the nominal price of EGP0.50 per share. The IFA valued the company at EGP8.90/share using sum of the parts valuation for Taqa Gas, Taqa Power, and Taqa Petroleum. Our multiples-based valuation valued TAQA at EGP5.75/share, assuming P/E multiple of 12x and P/B multiple of 2.8x.  

SKPC will finalize the acquisition of Ethydco during 3Q23. 

EAST (FV: EGP24.72, OW) will be continuing its early retirement program that started in FY21/22 and cost EGP1.2 billion. The cost for FY23/24 is still undisclosed. 

Drive Finance (GBCO) has entered final negotiations with four private and state-owned banks to obtain credit facilities worth EGP1 billion.

The Sovereign Fund of Egypt will offer a 25-30% stake in real estate company El Mostakbal Urban Development to a strategic investor this year after adding the company to its pre-IPO fund. 

Vodafone Egypt is waiting for CBE's approval to double its current stake of c.10% in Basata Pay to 20%. 

Egypt's Sovereign Fund aims to acquire a pharmaceutical chain in the local market. 



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