Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts


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The cost of insuring Egypt's 5-year sovereign debt increased by more than 200 bps during the last two weeks, to record 15.6%, as well as the cost of insuring one-year debt rose to 11.2%, compared to 8.7% during the same period. 

The yield on Egypt’s dollar-denominated bonds, reached 18.7%, compared to 16.9% on August 8.

The USD/EGP settled in non-deliverable futures contracts for a year at 40.77 and 40.96, and for the 3 months contracts, it settled at 33.34-33.37.Companies will now be able to sell sukuk without acquiring a credit rating after the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) waived the requirement.

Egyptian General Authority for Supply Commodities is willingness to re-export Russian wheat from Egypt to neighboring countries if Moscow establishes a logistic distribution center in the economic zone of Suez Canal.

Investors interested in acquiring stakes in United Bank will begin due diligence by the end of September, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) said, denying a press report that claimed three banks had already begun the process.

CI Capital’s revenues almost doubled y-o-y to EGP 3.1 bn in 1H 2023 on the back of strong growth across all of its business lines. Net income after tax and minority interest rose 52% to EGP 517 mn during the six-month period, backed by 92% growth in revenues.

Jawaid Ahmed Mirza will join the CIB board as a non-executive member.

Cairo International Airport Company signed two MoUs yesterday with US companies to work on the construction of the fourth terminal at Cairo International Airport.

Philip Morris’ United Tobacco is eyeing a minority stake in EAST, according to local media. The size of the stake and the offer amount is not disclosed yet.

Emaar Properties is interested in investing in vacant government buildings in Egypt, and that it has submitted an official request to restructure government buildings in Cairo, whether through restoration or construction.

Hotel occupancy rates in Egypt have risen to near 100% during the summer of 2023.

Ministry of trade and industry are currently studying the possibility of locally assembling cars imported from Tatarstan.

Kima 4Q22/23 net profit after taxes dropped to EGP91 million (-82% QoQ, -47% YoY), lower than our estimated figure of EGP288 million by a considerable margin. On an annual basis, net profit of FY22/23 amounted to EGP1.196 billion compared to EGP651 million in FY21/22 (+84% YoY). Going forward, performance for Kima is tied to Urea global prices- Egypt index following the global supply cutbacks and emerging demand, QTD urea prices averaged USD417/ton compared to USD345/ton in 4Q22/23. Local currency weakness and interest rates will also play a key role in performance. EGCH is currently trading at FY23/24 EV/EBITDA of 2.79x and P/E of 12.28x.

Apache plans to invest USD1.4 billion on exploration and production in Egypt in 2024. The company is also interested in exploring for gas in the Mediterranean.

European natural gas prices jumped as much as 9.1% during trading yesterday as labor unrest at key Australian LNG terminals continue to cause concern about global gas supplies.

 

 

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