The MPC will hold its meeting on Thursday 21 December to decide on policy rates. We expect the MPC to keep rates unchanged, as inflation outlook does not urge an immediate hike in policy rates. We believe the MPC might prefer to save a hike decision for another timing, related to a widely anticipated a downward movement on the currency front. This will most probably require a simultaneous rate hike due to upside inflation risks.

President El Sisi ratified the new Building Reconciliation Act. The amended law, which got the greenlight from the House last month, makes it easier for owners of unauthorized buildings built by October 15 of this year to legalize their properties in return for a reconciliation fee.


Nippon Steel acquisition of U.S. Steel for USD14.1 billion implies sizable upside for ESRS’s valuation. 

If we apply the same multiples to ESRS, and take into account a discount for Egypt's macro challenges then ESRS’s value will range between EGP182.40 – EGP304.46/share implying a significant upside potential for the stock compared to the current market price of EGP79.95/share and to our valuation of EGP97.02/share.

Nassef Sawiris-owned chemicals producer OCI Global has inked a binding agreement to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary Iowa Fertilizer Company (IFCo) to Koch Ag & Energy Solutions for USD3.6 billion. The sale marks the second exit by the Netherlands-based company in a few days time, OCI recently announced that it is offloading its entire 50% stake in Fertiglobe. Sale proceeds will help significantly reduce OCI’s debt, which stood at USD2.3 billion at the end of 3Q23. The transaction will also allow the company to deliver a capital return to shareholders and explore green projects. The sale is expected to close next year.

A number of oil players have paused Red Sea transits following intensified Houthi attacks on vessels passing through the waterway. Oil prices jumped on the news, with Brent Crude prices rising 1.8% to USD77.95/bbl.

Malaysian buyers are turning to Egypt for phosphate as Asia looks for new sources of fertilizer in response to China’s growing export restrictions, which the country introduced in 2021 to cool domestic prices. This should be good news for EFIC. 

Karm Solar is preparing to list its shares on EGX.

Steel rebars manufacturers started a new wave of price increases by a range of EGP2,000-2,500 per ton due to the fluctuations in raw materials prices this quarter. ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) raised rebar prices by EGP2,500/ton to EGP38,500 as of mid-December 2023, 7% higher than the EGP36,000/ton announced a month ago. On a different note, ESRS raised its flat steel prices by EGP7k this week. 

HELI received financial and technical offers from 3 companies to participate in 4 plots of land in Heliopolis, with a total area of up to 1,000 acres. The company expects to reach a financial agreement within two weeks if these companies show sufficient flexibility to the requests of the company’s board of directors.

Local appliance manufacturers are looking to hike prices after Al Ezz Dekheila Steel, the country’s sole maker of sheet metal, raised its own prices, according to local media.

The expat cars import initiative gathered USD171 mn since its extension in October with 59 thousand requests. The extensions end by 30th January 2024.

ETRS will finalize its acquisition of 99.9% of the National Transport and Overseas Services Company (NOSCO) in early 2024 due to delayed legal procedures. The acquisition was set to wrap up in 4Q23.