The CBE's MPC is scheduled to meet on Thursday, 26 December. We expect the CBE to prefer to hold rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting.  Even though the annual inflation reading dipped below 26% in November, some price hikes such as the recent telecom hikes are still passing through inflation readings. Besides, the recent gradual increase in USD rate – breaching the EGP50 border – accompanied by unfavorable geopolitics add another reason for the CBE to show some patience before easing, which looks more probable in 1Q2025.

Foreign and Arab investors are looking to shift EGP bns from short-term t-bills into Egypt’s three-year t-bonds, capitalizing on a sharp rise in yields.

The Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development, the new agency in charge of importing commodities, is currently holding talks with major Russian wheat exporters. A move that could help reduce the transaction costs of paying for grains.

The European Investment Bank issued EGP1 billion bonds in 3 tranches. 

The National Printing Company (NAPR) will make its EGX debut in 2H 2025.

Egyptians living abroad can now purchase up to two premium housing units using FX through a new government initiative.

The Industry Ministry is currently studying plans to establish a ready-built industrial complex of 450 factories in South Port Said Industrial Zone’s extension.

Egypt plans to sign separate agreements with Bahrain and the UAE in 1Q 2025 to reduce customs clearance times to a few hours.

We upgraded our FV for ALCN to EGP32.50/share, with an Overweight recommendation to factor in the latest market developments. The updated FV reflects:

• Weak local currency which positively impacts the company’s USD-denominated revenues.
• New contracts signed by the company that will enable ALCN will be able to increase the volumes of containers handled from 800 to 1,000 TEUs per month.
• Stable gross profitability on the back of USD-denominated revenues and EGP-denominated COGS. 
• We expect ALCN’s revenue to grow by a 5yr CAGR of 21% throughout our forecast period to reach EGP19.5 billion in FY28/29.
• We expect net profit to grow by a 5yr CAGR of 20% throughout our forecast period to reach EGP14.6 billion in FY28/29.
• We expect ALCN to continue being a dividend play with a payout ratio maintained at 85% throughout our forecast horizon.

ALCN is currently trading at FY24/25f P/E of 9.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.3x.

CCAP announced that, as of December 20, 2024, its subsidiary, ERC has successfully finalized its Senior and Subordinated debt Restructuring. Following the completion of this restructuring the net senior debt now stands at USD363 million, down from an initial amount of USD2.35 billion, which is expected to be fully repaid by December 2025. The subordinated debt currently stands at USD751 million, with an expected repayment completion by 2030. This progress in debt reduction positions ERC to begin distributing dividends to shareholders, with the first anticipated dividend payout expected in 2026.

COMI has announced that there would be a 2% fee when topping up the e-wallet with money from CIB cards.  

The Health Ministry launched the National One Health Plan (2024-27) and a health climate adaptation framework (2024-30), targeting shared health risks from zoonotic diseases, food and water safety, and climate-related challenges.

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