Insider: Short of War

Precision-Guided Predictions: Intelligence Risk in Prediction Markets


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In this episode, we read Peter Burns' article on the intelligence risk in prediction markets. We explore how high-liquidity platforms like Polymarket democratize signal intelligence, potentially allowing individuals with inside knowledge to leak state intent. Tune in to hear about real-world examples, from Venezuela to Israel, where prediction markets compromised operational security.

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Insider: Short of WarBy Irregular Warfare Initiative