Host Grace Cowan is joined today by Dr. Allan Lichtman, renowned historian, author, commentator, professor of history at American University and co-creator of The Keys to the White House. Developed in collaboration with Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, this predictive model has accurately determined the outcomes of nine presidential elections since 1984. In this bracing discussion they touch upon possible scenarios pertaining to the upcoming elections. Dr. Lichtman also addresses his book, 13 Cracks: Repairing American Democracy After Trump, highlighting loopholes in the American political system which may threaten our democracy.

00:00 Introduction to Frogmore Stew

00:26 Understanding the Presidential Primaries

01:22 Introducing Dr. Allan Lichtman and his 13 Keys to the White House

01:56 The Origin Story of the 13 Keys

03:39 Explaining the 13 Keys

06:15 Discussing the Impact of Incumbency and Party Battles

07:44 The Role of Scandals and Foreign Policy in Elections

09:18 The Influence of Third Parties

11:53 The Importance of Governing Well

18:06 The Impact of Internal Party Battles

19:39 Threats to Democracy

22:05 Closing Remarks

Copyright 2025 Grace Cowan

• Allan Lichtman - YouTube
• Faculty Profile: Allan Lichtman | American University, Washington, DC
• Allan Lichtman - Wikipedia
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