Prediction markets have been particularly volatile over the past couple of days as new information reshapes expectations on key political and financial events. On Polymarket, the most traded market remains the question of whether Donald Trump will be convicted in his New York trial. Over $50 million has been wagered, with the likelihood of a conviction surging past 75% before correcting back to around 68% following recent jury deliberations. This movement reflects uncertainty over how soon a verdict will be reached and whether the jury, despite strong prosecutorial arguments, will hesitate in convicting a former president.

PredictIt, still a major player in political forecasting, has seen heightened interest in the 2024 U.S. presidential election markets. One of the more surprising shifts has been in the Republican VP selection, where North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum’s contract jumped from just 5 cents to 14 cents in the past 48 hours. This spike suggests insider chatter or an influential endorsement may have shifted expectations. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Kamala Harris remaining Joe Biden’s running mate has climbed from 85% to 91%, dismissing speculation over a last-minute shake-up.

Metaculus, which relies more on aggregated expert forecasts, has seen a notable revision in the market predicting an official U.S. recession before the end of 2024. Just a week ago, it was sitting at 42%, but a sharp drop in new unemployment claims and a sustainability in consumer spending has pushed it down to 34%. Market watchers had been bracing for a downturn, but stronger-than-expected economic resilience is forcing forecasters to reassess.

The most intriguing market shift in the past two days has been on Polymarket’s “Will AI outperform top human players in StarCraft II by 2025?” This market had been hovering near 67%, but a major breakthrough in reinforcement learning research from DeepMind sent it surging past 80%. The rapid adaptation of AI in competitive gaming has mirrored advancements in real-world applications like finance and logistics, suggesting that human dominance in even the most complex simulated environments is eroding faster than experts originally anticipated.

One emerging trend to watch is the increasing divergence between expert-driven forecasting platforms like Metaculus and more open-bet markets like Polymarket. While Metaculus tends to adjust probabilities gradually based on new information and expert opinions, Polymarket reacts instantly to breaking news and investor sentiment. This difference was particularly pronounced in the recent Trump trial market, where Polymarket saw wild fluctuations based on daily court proceedings, whereas Metaculus forecasts shifted more cautiously. The question is whether these reactive price swings are noise or genuine signals that experts might underestimate.

As prediction markets grow in influence, the speed and scale at which they digest information is becoming more critical. Whether political outcomes, economic forecasts, or AI milestones, these platforms are proving to be valuable indicators of public sentiment and developing realities. The next few weeks, especially with major legal and political events in play, will likely bring further unexpected shifts that will test both the wisdom of the crowd and the reliability of expert analysis.

This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI