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President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: Torn between Washington and Beijing. EU's uncertain trade future
In this podcast [min. 38 - English], Insightview discusses the impact on the EU-China relationship from the trade war triggered by the United States with Jens Eskelund. Jens Eskelund is President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China.
The discussion centres on the escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, as well as the strategic dilemmas faced by the European Union. Jens Eskelund stresses that Europe must prioritise its long-term interests rather than reacting to align with either Washington or Beijing.
Jens Eskelund highlights how China, despite suffering from significant overcapacity and economic challenges such as persistent producer price deflation, remains a global manufacturing powerhouse due to the success of its "Made in China 2025" strategy. Interestingly, Jens Eskelund also notes that Europe’s dependence on Chinese manufacturing is quietly increasing, despite Brussels' efforts to make the EU less dependent on China.
Jens Eskelund, who is also Chief Representative for A.P. Moller-Maersk in China, arrived in China in 1998. Jens lives with his family in Beijing. He holds a Master’s degree in Philosophy and studied at Aarhus University in Denmark and the University of Texas at Austin. He has also studied Chinese at Renmin University in Beijing. Before joining Maersk in Beijing in 2000, Jens Eskelund served as Commercial Attaché at the Danish Embassy in China.
The 15 key points from Jens Eskelund's statements in the podcast:
1. **The EU must prioritise its own interests**
Jens Eskelund stresses that the EU should focus on its strategic goals rather than reacting to pressure from the United States or China.
2. **China is better prepared for a trade war than in 2018**
China has achieved greater technological autonomy and is more resilient than it was during Trump's first term, although it will still face economic challenges.
3. **Mixed results from Made in China 2025**
The strategy turned China into the world's leading manufacturing power but also created extensive overcapacity and inefficiencies.
4. **The differentiated US tariff policy may fail**
Eskelund suggests that rerouted trade flows could render the current American tariff strategy ineffective, potentially forcing a full-scale trade war.
5. **Trade war damages global growth**
A US recession is likely a greater threat to global trade than tariffs themselves.
6. **Overcapacity and financing distortions in China**
Massive state-driven financing, particularly to state-owned enterprises, has led to inefficient resource allocation and chronic overcapacity.
7. **China is now acknowledging its structural problems**
The Chinese leadership is openly recognising economic distortions, though it remains overly focused on stimulating demand rather than adjusting production.
8. **Need to reform China's production model**
China must better balance manufacturing output with domestic consumption to avoid ongoing pressure to over-export.
9. **Benefits of globalisation are diminishing**
Economic and strategic costs now outweigh the advantages consumers gained from cheap Chinese goods.
10. **The US risks self-inflicted damage**
Jens Eskelund notes that the American administration is becoming aware that its economy could suffer from prolonged trade conflict.
11. **China's economy is under considerable strain**
Indicators such as declining fiscal revenue, rising debt, weak real estate markets, and stagnant wages show serious economic challenges for China in 2025.
12. **European companies are increasing sourcing from China**
Despite lower profitability, many European firms are increasing their reliance on China's supply chain due to deflation and competitive pricing in China.
13. **Trade war strengthens nationalist sentiment in China**
Public opinion in China increasingly sees the United States as an existential rival, bolstering support for the Communist Party.
14. **EU–China relations have become more complicated**
It is unlikely that the 2020 Comprehensive Agreement on Investment will be revived without major changes addressing structural concerns.
15. **Europe must pursue strategic autonomy**
Experience with the Trump administration has convinced Europe of the need to reduce dependence on both the US and China and rebuild its industrial capabilities.
The article linked to this podcast is here.
Music: Melodyloops, 'Pure Calmness – by MediaM
The discussion centres on the escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, as well as the strategic dilemmas faced by the European Union. Jens Eskelund stresses that Europe must prioritise its long-term interests rather than reacting to align with either Washington or Beijing.
Jens Eskelund highlights how China, despite suffering from significant overcapacity and economic challenges such as persistent producer price deflation, remains a global manufacturing powerhouse due to the success of its "Made in China 2025" strategy. Interestingly, Jens Eskelund also notes that Europe’s dependence on Chinese manufacturing is quietly increasing, despite Brussels' efforts to make the EU less dependent on China.
Jens Eskelund, who is also Chief Representative for A.P. Moller-Maersk in China, arrived in China in 1998. Jens lives with his family in Beijing. He holds a Master’s degree in Philosophy and studied at Aarhus University in Denmark and the University of Texas at Austin. He has also studied Chinese at Renmin University in Beijing. Before joining Maersk in Beijing in 2000, Jens Eskelund served as Commercial Attaché at the Danish Embassy in China.
The 15 key points from Jens Eskelund's statements in the podcast:
1. **The EU must prioritise its own interests**
Jens Eskelund stresses that the EU should focus on its strategic goals rather than reacting to pressure from the United States or China.
2. **China is better prepared for a trade war than in 2018**
China has achieved greater technological autonomy and is more resilient than it was during Trump's first term, although it will still face economic challenges.
3. **Mixed results from Made in China 2025**
The strategy turned China into the world's leading manufacturing power but also created extensive overcapacity and inefficiencies.
4. **The differentiated US tariff policy may fail**
Eskelund suggests that rerouted trade flows could render the current American tariff strategy ineffective, potentially forcing a full-scale trade war.
5. **Trade war damages global growth**
A US recession is likely a greater threat to global trade than tariffs themselves.
6. **Overcapacity and financing distortions in China**
Massive state-driven financing, particularly to state-owned enterprises, has led to inefficient resource allocation and chronic overcapacity.
7. **China is now acknowledging its structural problems**
The Chinese leadership is openly recognising economic distortions, though it remains overly focused on stimulating demand rather than adjusting production.
8. **Need to reform China's production model**
China must better balance manufacturing output with domestic consumption to avoid ongoing pressure to over-export.
9. **Benefits of globalisation are diminishing**
Economic and strategic costs now outweigh the advantages consumers gained from cheap Chinese goods.
10. **The US risks self-inflicted damage**
Jens Eskelund notes that the American administration is becoming aware that its economy could suffer from prolonged trade conflict.
11. **China's economy is under considerable strain**
Indicators such as declining fiscal revenue, rising debt, weak real estate markets, and stagnant wages show serious economic challenges for China in 2025.
12. **European companies are increasing sourcing from China**
Despite lower profitability, many European firms are increasing their reliance on China's supply chain due to deflation and competitive pricing in China.
13. **Trade war strengthens nationalist sentiment in China**
Public opinion in China increasingly sees the United States as an existential rival, bolstering support for the Communist Party.
14. **EU–China relations have become more complicated**
It is unlikely that the 2020 Comprehensive Agreement on Investment will be revived without major changes addressing structural concerns.
15. **Europe must pursue strategic autonomy**
Experience with the Trump administration has convinced Europe of the need to reduce dependence on both the US and China and rebuild its industrial capabilities.
The article linked to this podcast is here.
Music: Melodyloops, 'Pure Calmness – by MediaM
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By Carsten Bonde PedersenIn this podcast [min. 38 - English], Insightview discusses the impact on the EU-China relationship from the trade war triggered by the United States with Jens Eskelund. Jens Eskelund is President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China.
The discussion centres on the escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, as well as the strategic dilemmas faced by the European Union. Jens Eskelund stresses that Europe must prioritise its long-term interests rather than reacting to align with either Washington or Beijing.
Jens Eskelund highlights how China, despite suffering from significant overcapacity and economic challenges such as persistent producer price deflation, remains a global manufacturing powerhouse due to the success of its "Made in China 2025" strategy. Interestingly, Jens Eskelund also notes that Europe’s dependence on Chinese manufacturing is quietly increasing, despite Brussels' efforts to make the EU less dependent on China.
Jens Eskelund, who is also Chief Representative for A.P. Moller-Maersk in China, arrived in China in 1998. Jens lives with his family in Beijing. He holds a Master’s degree in Philosophy and studied at Aarhus University in Denmark and the University of Texas at Austin. He has also studied Chinese at Renmin University in Beijing. Before joining Maersk in Beijing in 2000, Jens Eskelund served as Commercial Attaché at the Danish Embassy in China.
The 15 key points from Jens Eskelund's statements in the podcast:
1. **The EU must prioritise its own interests**
Jens Eskelund stresses that the EU should focus on its strategic goals rather than reacting to pressure from the United States or China.
2. **China is better prepared for a trade war than in 2018**
China has achieved greater technological autonomy and is more resilient than it was during Trump's first term, although it will still face economic challenges.
3. **Mixed results from Made in China 2025**
The strategy turned China into the world's leading manufacturing power but also created extensive overcapacity and inefficiencies.
4. **The differentiated US tariff policy may fail**
Eskelund suggests that rerouted trade flows could render the current American tariff strategy ineffective, potentially forcing a full-scale trade war.
5. **Trade war damages global growth**
A US recession is likely a greater threat to global trade than tariffs themselves.
6. **Overcapacity and financing distortions in China**
Massive state-driven financing, particularly to state-owned enterprises, has led to inefficient resource allocation and chronic overcapacity.
7. **China is now acknowledging its structural problems**
The Chinese leadership is openly recognising economic distortions, though it remains overly focused on stimulating demand rather than adjusting production.
8. **Need to reform China's production model**
China must better balance manufacturing output with domestic consumption to avoid ongoing pressure to over-export.
9. **Benefits of globalisation are diminishing**
Economic and strategic costs now outweigh the advantages consumers gained from cheap Chinese goods.
10. **The US risks self-inflicted damage**
Jens Eskelund notes that the American administration is becoming aware that its economy could suffer from prolonged trade conflict.
11. **China's economy is under considerable strain**
Indicators such as declining fiscal revenue, rising debt, weak real estate markets, and stagnant wages show serious economic challenges for China in 2025.
12. **European companies are increasing sourcing from China**
Despite lower profitability, many European firms are increasing their reliance on China's supply chain due to deflation and competitive pricing in China.
13. **Trade war strengthens nationalist sentiment in China**
Public opinion in China increasingly sees the United States as an existential rival, bolstering support for the Communist Party.
14. **EU–China relations have become more complicated**
It is unlikely that the 2020 Comprehensive Agreement on Investment will be revived without major changes addressing structural concerns.
15. **Europe must pursue strategic autonomy**
Experience with the Trump administration has convinced Europe of the need to reduce dependence on both the US and China and rebuild its industrial capabilities.
The article linked to this podcast is here.
Music: Melodyloops, 'Pure Calmness – by MediaM
The discussion centres on the escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, as well as the strategic dilemmas faced by the European Union. Jens Eskelund stresses that Europe must prioritise its long-term interests rather than reacting to align with either Washington or Beijing.
Jens Eskelund highlights how China, despite suffering from significant overcapacity and economic challenges such as persistent producer price deflation, remains a global manufacturing powerhouse due to the success of its "Made in China 2025" strategy. Interestingly, Jens Eskelund also notes that Europe’s dependence on Chinese manufacturing is quietly increasing, despite Brussels' efforts to make the EU less dependent on China.
Jens Eskelund, who is also Chief Representative for A.P. Moller-Maersk in China, arrived in China in 1998. Jens lives with his family in Beijing. He holds a Master’s degree in Philosophy and studied at Aarhus University in Denmark and the University of Texas at Austin. He has also studied Chinese at Renmin University in Beijing. Before joining Maersk in Beijing in 2000, Jens Eskelund served as Commercial Attaché at the Danish Embassy in China.
The 15 key points from Jens Eskelund's statements in the podcast:
1. **The EU must prioritise its own interests**
Jens Eskelund stresses that the EU should focus on its strategic goals rather than reacting to pressure from the United States or China.
2. **China is better prepared for a trade war than in 2018**
China has achieved greater technological autonomy and is more resilient than it was during Trump's first term, although it will still face economic challenges.
3. **Mixed results from Made in China 2025**
The strategy turned China into the world's leading manufacturing power but also created extensive overcapacity and inefficiencies.
4. **The differentiated US tariff policy may fail**
Eskelund suggests that rerouted trade flows could render the current American tariff strategy ineffective, potentially forcing a full-scale trade war.
5. **Trade war damages global growth**
A US recession is likely a greater threat to global trade than tariffs themselves.
6. **Overcapacity and financing distortions in China**
Massive state-driven financing, particularly to state-owned enterprises, has led to inefficient resource allocation and chronic overcapacity.
7. **China is now acknowledging its structural problems**
The Chinese leadership is openly recognising economic distortions, though it remains overly focused on stimulating demand rather than adjusting production.
8. **Need to reform China's production model**
China must better balance manufacturing output with domestic consumption to avoid ongoing pressure to over-export.
9. **Benefits of globalisation are diminishing**
Economic and strategic costs now outweigh the advantages consumers gained from cheap Chinese goods.
10. **The US risks self-inflicted damage**
Jens Eskelund notes that the American administration is becoming aware that its economy could suffer from prolonged trade conflict.
11. **China's economy is under considerable strain**
Indicators such as declining fiscal revenue, rising debt, weak real estate markets, and stagnant wages show serious economic challenges for China in 2025.
12. **European companies are increasing sourcing from China**
Despite lower profitability, many European firms are increasing their reliance on China's supply chain due to deflation and competitive pricing in China.
13. **Trade war strengthens nationalist sentiment in China**
Public opinion in China increasingly sees the United States as an existential rival, bolstering support for the Communist Party.
14. **EU–China relations have become more complicated**
It is unlikely that the 2020 Comprehensive Agreement on Investment will be revived without major changes addressing structural concerns.
15. **Europe must pursue strategic autonomy**
Experience with the Trump administration has convinced Europe of the need to reduce dependence on both the US and China and rebuild its industrial capabilities.
The article linked to this podcast is here.
Music: Melodyloops, 'Pure Calmness – by MediaM