U.S. stocks were down almost 5% in the first quarter. Then up 15% in the second. On paper, the first half of 2026 looks fine. But underneath those numbers, there is a concentration in semiconductor stocks that just had their best quarter in history, an AI spending wave that is running well ahead of the revenue it is producing, margin borrowing at all-time highs, and a consumer savings rate approaching low 2007 levels. 

In this episode of Financial Commute, Chief Executive Officer Jeff Sarti and Chief Investment Officer Meghan Pinchuk walk through what happened in Q2 2026, what the signals in the data are telling them, and how they are thinking about portfolio positioning when the market is this disconnected from the fundamentals.

Key Takeaways

• Semiconductor stocks had their best quarter ever, up over 80% in three months. Intel and Micron were up almost 200% for the quarter. That kind of move comes with a warning: this is also one of the most cyclical industries in the market, with a history of 45 to 80 percent drawdowns when the cycle turns. Semiconductors now make up roughly 20 percent of the S&P 500.
• The four hyperscalers are spending close to $1 trillion a year on AI data centers. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have shifted from cash-flow-generating machines to heavily capital-intensive spenders, now issuing significant debt to fund the buildout. The key question investors should be wondering: when does the spending translate into revenue?
• The AI spending boom has a structural problem the railroad and internet booms did not. Railway lines and fiber cables are durable assets still in use today. Computer chips depreciate rapidly. A data center built today may need its chips replaced in three to five years, raising real questions about the long-term economics of this build-out.
• Margin borrowing and leveraged ETFs are flashing speculative excess. Retail margin borrowing is at an all-time high. Leveraged single-stock ETFs, a product that barely existed five years ago, now represent over 400 of the 600-plus leveraged ETFs on the market with nearly $200 billion in the category. Increased borrowing is a sign of escalating speculation and previous peaks in margin borrowing (e.g., 2000 and 2007, and 2022) preceded market corrections.
• Gold pulled back about 7% in the first half after a massive multi-year run, but the thesis is unchanged. Rising interest rates created an opportunity cost for holding gold. But the underlying reasons to own it, a federal interest expense now approaching $1.3 trillion annually, ongoing dollar debasement, and structural deficits running nearly $2 trillion per year, have not changed.