Episode 22: Q4 2025 REIT Earnings Recap — Groundhog Day… Until It Wasn’t
Guest: Greg Willett, Chief Economist, LeaseLock
Format: Quarterly LinkedIn Live

In this episode:

🔁 The Groundhog Day Themes

• Supply pressures easing in 2026
• Back-half rent growth expectations (counter-seasonal strength)
• Renewals driving blended rent growth
• Expense moderation — especially insurance
• Renter financial health stabilizing
• Bad debt largely back to pre-COVID norms

🔄 The Shift: Camden’s California Exit

• 92% of advocacy spend concentrated in California
• ~$2M annual advocacy costs
• $1.5–$2B capital redeployment
• 60% reinvestment into Sunbelt
• 40% potentially toward stock buybacks
• Analysts pressing on regulatory cost underwriting

💰 Capital Allocation Shift

• Stock buybacks increasingly favored over new development
• REITs more cautious on 2026 starts
• NAV discounts influencing strategy
• Development pipeline still active — but less aggressive

🌎 Market Breakdown

Bay Area / San Francisco

• No new supply
• Return-to-office momentum finally visible
• Rent growth leading nationally
• Still recovering from deep COVID-era losses

Los Angeles

• Core LA under pressure
• Southern California still investable — but more complex
• Institutional capital reassessing regulatory exposure

Atlanta & Dallas

• Green shoots emerging
• Class A leading recovery in Dallas
• Atlanta showing renewed momentum

Denver

• Supply + stalled job growth
• 20-year outperformance history — but currently lagging
• Demand underperforming expectations

Boston

• Policy risk emerging
• Analysts probing regulatory exposure

Washington D.C.

• Surprisingly muted discussion
• Little analyst follow-up despite activity

📈 2026 Outlook (Greg’s View)

• Not a breakout year
• Not a recession year
• A transition year
• Moving toward normalization
• Positioned for stronger 2027–2028 performance