Rabbit Hole Brief: Small Business

September CPI lands at 8:30am ET with headline inflation expected near 3.6% on energy while core cools, and yields start the day below last week's 24-year highs. Plus: big banks post a combined 1.75 billion in Q3 profits led by Goldman Sachs, existing home sales mark the slowest two months of the year, a franchise rollout lesson from Beyond Oil, a supplier price-hold tactic, and tomorrow's PPI, retail sales, and October 15 tax deadline.

NFIB optimism slips 0.8 points to 97.9 as uncertainty grows, the ten-year Treasury eases to about 5.20% as bond markets reopen, and JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo kick off bank earnings. Plus: a new SBA and Department of War capital path for defense suppliers, today's existing home sales, a Crunch Fitness franchise opening, a text-list tactic you own, and tomorrow's CPI preview.

Oil falls after the President announces a Russia-Ukraine energy truce that neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed, while Brent still holds above $100 after a violent weekend in the Gulf. Plus: Michigan consumer sentiment drops to 46.3 with current conditions at a record low, what Wednesday's CPI split between headline and core means for a possible December Fed hike, a co-branding lesson from franchising, and a budget-tier tactic that protects your main price.

Oil eases slightly after the President says the U.S. won't strike Iran before the midterms, though Brent still holds above $100. Plus: mortgage rates reach 7.40%, what next week's CPI report means for the Fed's December decision and your borrowing costs, and the week-ahead calendar for Main Street.

Brent crude tops $104 on shipping attacks and Gulf shutdowns, pushing the 30-year Treasury back toward 24-year highs. Plus: the Fed minutes point to one more hike this year, the October 15 tax and retirement deadlines are one week away, Red Robin's $115M franchise-led refinancing, and a 10-day early holiday pre-sale tactic to pull cash forward.

Brent crude climbs past $100 and the 30-year Treasury touches its highest level since 2002 — what that means for fuel, rent, and borrowing. Plus: today's Fed minutes and the December rate outlook, the merchant-cash-advance lien trap that can quietly kill a cheaper refinance, and a 30-day fuel and energy check you can run this week.

TD Bank's Eyes on Growth survey finds 99% of small businesses now use AI — and most say it's growing headcount, not cutting it. Plus: a $93.1M securitization shows lenders still back Main Street, tomorrow's Fed minutes could move December rate odds, and a six-step fraud checklist you can run this week.

Monday's briefing for small-business owners: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.28%, its highest since 2007, and what it means for your borrowing; the SBA's new October 1 lending rules — fee waivers for manufacturers, food supply chain, and rural businesses, plus tougher real-earnings tests for business buyers; September's weak jobs report and what NFIB's hiring data says about Main Street; and this week's practical tactic, a one-week customer review sprint.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years — and signaled higher for longer. Chip and Melody break down what it costs Main Street, why small-business growth expectations just hit a four-year low, the SBA's doubled loan limit, the tax deadlines hiding in mid-October, and one practical tactic: getting paid faster. Rabbit Hole Brief: Small Business is a weekday morning briefing for owners and operators.