Radar Podcast

We are four months into risk off and the AI trade is finally cracking. Google, Amazon and Intel got hit on CapEx. Apple made new highs. That tells you where the damage is. We cover why risk off is not a crash call, what the growth index is actually showing, how stagflation regimes tend to resolve, and why front running the system is the one rule we never break.

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This week we cover the semiconductor selloff and why it does not mean the AI build-out is over. We explain why inference matters more than training. We look at the rotation into defensives, dip buying in a risk-off regime, leveraged ETFs, crude and diesel, cybersecurity, and the Anthropic IPO.

Q&A is in the Discord. Free account at www.market-radar.com.Episode 237

Markets rolled over this week on CPI and PPI. Our inflation index is rising fast. Yields spiked toward 5% then snapped back in two days. We cover why the bond selloff was momentum, not growth. We go deep on the AI trade: CoreWeave, frontier labs versus inference, why benchmarks don't matter, and who wins long term. Plus the tech rotation, TLT, healthcare, and why we aren't buying this dip.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 236

Bitcoin is giving back its gains and we are still not positioned. We cover why the regime filter keeps us out and why chop is the bigger risk than a crash. We get into long end yields rising on risk premium, not growth, and the debasement trade that never held. Then the OpenAI miss, circular financing, frontier labs stalling, the Anthropic IPO, and why software is rebounding.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 235

We break down why the back end of the crude curve is still pricing an Iran premium while the front month fades, and why diesel is the energy market to watch. We explain what is actually driving the bond selloff and why rising yields are not telling you growth is booming. We close on Bitcoin, the regime, and the post midterm Iran risk.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 234

The 10 year yield continues to breakout and the Nasdaq is still near its highs. We walk through why rates and crude are not binding the economy yet, why yields may just be catching up to what stocks already priced in Q2, and what has to break before that changes.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 233

The Fed hiked into an energy shock this week and we think the bond market forced their hand. We break down why this move is oil driven, not growth driven, why the 5% ceiling on the 10 year does not hold in stagflation, and why risk assets stay capped until Iran gets resolved.Learn More: www.market-radar.com

Yields are ripping while growth flatlines, and that combination is restrictive, not bullish. We break down why rates above 4.75% stop helping banks, what the regime map says comes after stagflation, and why the bond market just blew out the buyback program. Plus: Bitcoin's failed breakout, the output gap problem, and why chop is the biggest risk right now.Learn More: www.market-radar.com

Bitcoin is squeezing shorts and we explain what we need to see before taking our leveraged long. We look at rates pressing the 4.75 ceiling into NFP, housing and homebuilders, and whether the consumer is actually cooked. We close on open source AI catching up to frontier models and what that means for software, inference, and labor.Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We cover the rotation out of AI hardware into software, the gold versus Bitcoin trade, what Bitcoin still needs before we buy it, and why the debasement trade is the wrong frame. Plus Warsh into Jackson Hole and the Druckenmiller fracture.Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 229