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Portfolio Overextended & Oversold Positions

Weekly Roundup

Returns this week were brought to you by… …calmer rates, resilient earnings, and a handful of headline-grabbing corporate moves that kept risk appetite alive.

Stocks finished higher overall. The S&P 500 and Dow both notched weekly gains of about 1%, while the Nasdaq did a bit better and small caps popped at mid-week before cooling. The 10-year Treasury yield hugged the ~4% line and even dipped below it at times.

That matters because lower (or steady) long-term yields increase the present value of future profits. This tends to support higher equity valuations — especially for growth and tech. This is something that many “dumb money” investors do not understand right now.

There is almost always an inverse relationship between these two metrics.

This is the same reason why so many people seem to be so good at investing right now. Rates have been “coming down” since late 2023 (yes there have been ups and downs since but 2023 was peak).

Oil spent the week around the high-$50s to low-$60s per barrel. That’s a relatively low price for this cycle and generally eases costs for transportation, manufacturing, and consumers; it’s a headwind for energy producer earnings unless volumes or refining margins make up the difference.

Gold hovered near an extraordinary ~$4,100 – $4,300. Elevated gold usually signals investors are still buying insurance against policy surprises or geopolitical risk, even as stocks climb. The 3% selloff we saw this week is small relative to the 54% returns gold has had this year. Volatility cooled: the VIX slid back into the high-teens, a sign the market’s immediate fear level eased after the early-October wobble. Bitcoin held near the $110K area; more on why that mattered below.

Earnings helped to do a bit of the heavy lifting this week.

General Motors beat and raised guidance, showing that core auto profits can hold up even as the EV transition zigzags. GE Aerospace lifted its outlook again on strong jet-engine demand tied to robust global travel and aircraft production. Honeywell, Las Vegas Sands, and several chip-exposed names posted solid reports, helping industrials and tech lead. Defensive pockets like consumer staples and utilities lagged — classic price action when investors are leaning into growth and cyclicals.

Don’t forget what’s important here… the buyers. Are retail investors the ones pumping growth and selling defensives, or is institutional money selling defensives and buying growth?

To me? Looks like retail is the one selling defense and buying growth. This is a trend that has been going on for weeks now, and it is a clear signal to me that things big money is positioning itself for market drop.

Tracking retail vs institutional volume is hard, but somewhat doable. Two ways I do it: Robinhood offers looks at their investors volume and market moves pre/post market.

Tech stayed front and center for reasons both good and cautionary. Apple shares were helped by strong iPhone data and news it’s shipping AI servers from a new Texas facility. Nvidia and semi equipment names drew support from ongoing AI data-center spending. On the flip side, an AWS outage reminded everyone how concentrated the internet’s plumbing has become. America runs on Dunkin’ and the internet runs on AWS. It’s clear that when a major cloud region stumbles, downstream apps from trading to ride-hailing feel it. The takeaway isn’t “avoid the cloud”; it’s that reliability, multi-cloud setups, and redundancy remain investment priorities for enterprises.

Another note from me here. I think there are going to be investment opportunities generated from this news. Of course, there is the classic buy AMZN because it is clear how many things rely on it. The other take is that we should be looking at and buying cloud backup & data protection companies: RBRK and CLVT are great examples.

Autos and mobility mixed the near-term with the long-term. Tesla outlined aggressive production and software ambitions and reported record quarterly deliveries, but it also dealt with a safety recall and the air pocket that can follow expiring EV incentives. Rivian tightened its belt with layoffs and settled a legacy investor suit to clear the decks before its mass-market launch. Airlines like American beat expectations as travel demand stayed durable.

Deal-and-capital headlines cut across sectors. Kering sold its beauty unit to L’Oréal to refocus on fashion and shore up the balance sheet. JPMorgan prepared to accept Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for institutional loans.

This sounds like small news, but assuming all things go well, this could bode extremely well for anyone long BTC or ether.

Coinbase kept expanding with another acquisition, while data-center landlords such as Digital Realty raised guidance thanks to record AI-driven bookings. Pipeline giant Kinder Morgan outlined a large slate of gas projects tied to LNG exports and the power-hungry AI build-out—one more link between semiconductors and old-school energy infrastructure.

Kinder Morgan could become a great investment play. At a PE ratio of 21 it seems fairly valued, and a potentially massive player in the world of powering AI with many calling for “co-generation” being the first step between now and the nuclear power takeover.

Okay, quick summary…

Steady-to-softer yields are a tailwind for stocks. Cheaper oil cools inflation and helps most sectors’ costs & help to keep rates coming down. High gold says not everyone feels safe in the market.Calmer VIX means pullbacks can be shorter and more orderly—until a surprise hits.

Put together, this week looked like “risk-on with hedges,” powered by earnings and underpinned by the idea that further rate cuts are on the way. Overall, I remain skeptical and happy with the large amounts of cash we are keeping on hand.

Insider Trade Updates

We keep track of all of these trades on our Google sheet (available to paid subs), and then insider returns are quite astounding… (I have been removing quite a few of the penny stocks/ super risky investments to make the returns more normalized.)

The current insider buy/sell ratio is sitting at 0.21, which is relatively low. Over the past 5 years, I have seen the average go as high as 0.81 in May of 2022 (a strong buying signal), and as low as 0.17 (a sell/hold signal).

Buy The Dip Tracker

* None that I liked this week.

Whale Buys

* LAW — CS Disco, Inc.Director bought 24,831 @ $5.95 ($147.8K).

* THFF — First Financial CorporationDirector bought 2,295 @ $52.25 ($119.9K).

* FAX — Abrdn Asia-Pacific Income Fund IncDirector bought 534 @ $15.57 ($8.3K).

* IAF — Abrdn Australia Equity Fund IncDirector bought 910 @ $4.50 ($4.1K).

Officer Skin in the Game

* CSX — CSX CorporationPresident & CEO bought 55,000 @ $36.87 ($2.03M).

* CNS — Cohen & Steers, Inc.Executive Chairman bought 40,539 @ $70.21 ($2.85M).

* GRF — Eagle Capital Growth Fund, Inc.CFO/CCO/Secretary/Treasurer bought 9,850 @ $10.59 ($104.3K).

Interesting Trade Ideas & Berkshire Buys

I have received numerous emails from people requesting that I write more research articles on stocks and the state of the economy. I have previously stated that I prefer writing about the stocks I own and producing research only on stocks I buy. I think this approach is more genuine, and I feel that it is combative against many of the fake gurus who post multiple “stock picks” a week and then choose to only talk about the best ones.

The original name of this newsletter was “Simple Side Research.” I shifted away from the “research” name and writing style because it felt too “stock picky.” However, with my current portfolios existing and available to track, and the returns speaking for themselves, I feel comfortable going back to my old “research” version of writing.

I am not 100% certain how this will look over the next few months and weeks, but come 2026, I should have a good grip on how I want to do everything!

I will continue to write “Berkshire Buy” articles as I see fit. These companies are ones that I believe fit Buffett’s criteria for investing (not always perfectly), and are analyzed from that exact viewpoint.

Not all of these companies make it into my personal portfolios. Currently, I own OXY and NSSC in my Flagship Fund.

Portfolio Performance

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