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Re17-NOTES.pdf
(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven
Retraice^1
On `current history', or what might be going on out there.
Air date: Monday, 7th Mar. 2022, 4:20 PM Eastern/US.
What's GOOT
The point of departure for the Retraice podcast was `intelligence', which we divided into the natural, artificial and strategic kinds.^2 The point of departure for Retraice, Inc. is the question `What's going on out there?' (What's GOOT).
An answer to What's GOOT is a hypothesis.
Current history
Specifically, such a hypothesis should be about `What's going to be in the history books?', i.e. `current history', roughly speaking. This is a heuristic.^3 It's a good starting point because it gauges what humans care about, i.e. `the care factor'.^4
Examples since late 2020: o covid--it started in early 2020, but since late 2020 it has continued to dominate politics and economies; o Jan 6th, 2021, the attack on the U.S. capital building; o Ukraine, the Feb. 24th, 2022 Russian invasion.
Compare `current history' to news. There is a ton of news being produced every day, but most of it won't end up in history books.
Hypotheses [and some predictions]
Hypotheses make predictions, but are not themselves predictions.
Here is our starting list (none of the below statements or [predictions] is well-formed or accepted by us; they're just to get things started):
1. Space: Humans are now technologically capable of living in space. Zubrin (2019).
Obviously, since Yuri Gagarin and the Vostok 1, humans have demonstrated this capability. But duration and distance make a big difference, and independence is the gold standard. So if a human lived his whole adult life aboard the International Space Station, as re-supplied by Earthlings, he would be an Earthling. If he did the same thing on Mars, but received no supplies from Earth, he'd be a Martian. If he somehow did it untethered to a single planet or moon, he'd be a Spaceman.
The hypothesis, then, is that human Martians and Spacemen are technologically possible today. This hypothesis is still problematic because, in a sense, nothing is `technologically possible' until it has been demonstrated. So we would have to further qualify it by adding something like, `given a significant reallocation of resources and a certain interval of time.' The point is, there is no longer a physical or technical barrier in the way; the barriers are economic and political.
Similar qualifications and asterisks will be necessary for all the below hypotheses; we'll leave most of them unsaid.
1.1. [prediction]: Humans will soon live on Mars. Zubrin (1996).
To make this a useful prediction, i.e. useful for the purpose of testing the hypothesis, we have to (at least) define `soon'.
1.2. Humans should prioritize space exploration at least to mitigate risk, at most to fulfill the potential of Earth-originating life. Hawking (2018) chpts. 7-8; Zubrin (2019) part 1.
1.3. The Fermi Paradox is an ominous warning about risks to life in general. For an overview, see Cirkovic (2008) p. 131 ff. For a contrary argument, see Ord (2020) p. 53 ff. and the notes on pages 309 ff.
2. Technology: Human technology risks are growing faster than their mitigation. Rees (2003) pp. 74-75; Bostrom (2019); Sanger (2018) p. 323; Sapolsky (2018) pp. 619-620.
I.e. technology generally, as used by terrorists and psychos and well-meaning fools, and thought of as the increase in individual leverage, is causing risk to out-pace mitigation.
2.1. AI: Machines are beginning to resemble intelligent creatures. Dyson (1997) pp. xii, 101, 181, 191-192, 194; Dyson (2015); Dyson (2020).
2.2. Hacking is disproportionately dangerous to civilizations. Perlroth (2020) p. 388 ff.; Sanger (2018) pp. 320-324; Kaplan (2016) pp. 276-277.
2.3. Runaway bio or nano tech is physically possible. Nouri & Chyba (2008); Phoenix & Treder (2008).
3. Death: Human lifespan is being prolonged by new technologies. Gawande (2014) pp. 32-36; Johnson (2014) pp. 140-142; Walter (2020) pp. 44-46; Durant & Durant (1968) p. 99.
3.1. A longevity `escape velocity' is physically possible. de Grey (2007) p. 330, and p. 362 for the history of the term.
4. China: The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely. Allison (2018); Pillsbury (2015); Spalding (2019); Kilcullen (2020); Lee (2018); Osnos (2020/01/06).
4.1. The U.S. is declining. Orlov (2008); Putnam (2015); Chomsky (2017); Reid (2017) pp. 11, 212-218, p. 249 ff.
4.2. China is rising. Allison (2018); Mitter (2008); Pillsbury (2015).
4.3. [prediction]: Civilizational collapse (of the US and/or China and/or Russia) will happen within our lifetimes.
How long is `our lifetimes'? What if all three collapse due to a global collapse? This prediction needs lots of work.
5. Civil War: The U.S. seems vulnerable to a civil war this decade. Walter (2022).
`Seems' is crucial here. Even if it's not strictly vulnerable (given an objective definition of vulnerable^5 , the perception that it is vulnerable would have significant effects. And `this decade' is an arbitrary boundary. What if war broke out Jan. 1st, 2030, which is less than 8 years from now?
6. Environment: Humans are changing their earthly environment faster than they can adapt to it.
In a sense, this is strictly not true, since if we weren't adapting to it, we'd be dead. But credible, smart people are saying that this is the direction we're headed. Rees (2003) chpt. 8; Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008) chpt. 13; Ord (2020) pp. 102-119.
6.1. The Earth seems to be warming up significantly. Ord (2020) p. 103 and sources cited; Romm (2016) pp. 2-3; Pogue (2021) p. 9.
Again, the word `seems' means that there will be effects whether or not the warming is `significant'.
6.2. Humans are in the middle of an extinction event. Rees (2008) p. v; Rees (2003) p. 100 ff.; Ord (2020) p. 117 ff.
7. Betterment: Some things make the future better than the past.
The most obvious and uncontroversial is: reduction of violence. See Pinker (2011) chpts. 1-7 on the history of it and Sapolsky (2018)'s response to Pinker, pp. 615-620.
Two more obvious and uncontroversial things that make the future better than the past are: reduction of cruelty and reduction of suffering. Baumeister (1999) pp. 375-378.
Alternatively, for a definition of `progress' we might use "the increasing control of the environment by life." Durant & Durant (1968) p. 98.
Alternatively again, for a definition of `progress' we might say, increasing "the transmission of our mental, moral, technical, and aesthetic heritage as fully as possible to as many as possible", i.e. `education'. Durant & Durant (1968) p. 101.
On the complexity of what each of us considers `better', consider the concept of `caring'. See Frankfurt (1988) and Retraice (2020/11/10).
8. Intelligence: There are intelligence differences. Herrnstein & Murray (1996); Sternberg (2020); Deary (2001). Also, see Sapolsky (2018) p. 582 on IQ and death row, and Baumeister (1999) pp. 263-264 on self-control and crime.
9. Darkness: There is a pervasive darkness in humans, even amongst the good guys.
+ Salter (2003) pp. 10-14 on pervasiveness; + Pinker (2011) chpt. 8, especially pp. 490-492 and Baumeister (1999), e.g. pp. 68-69 and chpt. 8, on universality, i.e. `even amongst the good guys'; + Sapolsky (2018) pp. 602-603 and p. 611 on biological and environmental components of criminal behavior and (perceived) wrongdoing.
Obviously our definition of `darkness' and `good guys' makes all the difference. But consider:
+ Shirer (1959), e.g. pp. 231-232 and pp. 239-240, on the complacency of non-Nazi Germans; + O'Donnell (2004), e.g. pp. 54-55, on the brutality of wartime espionage; + Stephens-Davidowitz (2018) pp. 6-7 and pp. 121-122 on the ugliness of our Google searches; + Simler & Hanson (2018) pp. 5-14 on our ulterior motives, primarily selfishness; + Chomsky (1970) pp. 3-4 on `the backroom boys', i.e. chemists at Dow Chemical who made napalm a more and more vicious weapon, pleasing at least one American pilot. Chomsky is quoting a caption from a photo book about the Vietnam war, Griffiths (1971). + Sapolsky (2018) chpt. 13 on the biological underpinnings of moral behavior; + Baumeister (1999) p. 205 and Salter (2003) pp. 104-105 on the acquired nature of sadism.
9.1. Good guys with darkness are yet good.
Examples require first defining `darkness' and `good'. But consider how many world leaders, reasonably credited with doing good things, also had/have dark sides. Can we really decide that a president (JFK, adultery), or an activist (MLK, adultery), or a politician (W. Bush, Iraq), or a general (Powell, Iraq), or a musician (Eminem, misogynist language), or a comedian (Chappelle, misogynist language), or an athlete (Armstrong, doping) who has done wrong is therefor a bad guy? But `not bad guy' is a poor definition of `good guy'. So what is the threshold of good things (as defined by which or how many people) a person must do to be considered `good'?
(Note: We're not unaware that this list is all men, and that `guy' can be read as referring only to men. Please consider that examples of women who have famously done good but also famously done bad are harder to construct, and that we use `guys' as a single-syllable synonym for `people' or `persons'.)
9.2. What makes the darkness so powerful is a general unwillingness to acknowledge it.
This hypothesis needs a lot of work, but consider:
o Pinker (2011) p. 492 and Simler & Hanson (2018) chpt. 5 on self-deception; o Salter (2003) chpt. 9 on `rose-colored glasses and trauma'; o Baumeister (1999) p. 379 on the stereotype of `pure evil'.
10. Wealth: The current trend toward concentration of wealth is making human life worse. Chomsky (2017) pp. ix-xi; Putnam (2015) p. 35. These sources focus on the U.S. For a global perspective on the past two decades, showing a slight decrease in concentration, see Shorrocks et al. (2019) p. 25 ff.
The hypothesis is obviously sensitive to definitions of `human life' and `better/worse'.
11. Wildcards: New technologies, new discoveries about reality, and deception regularly cause historic changes.
Considerations and candidates:
+ Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12 on history, technology and `fundamental forces'; + Bostrom (2011) on the dangers of certain kinds of (true) information; + Bostrom (2019) on `black ball' inventions; + Simler & Hanson (2018), e.g. p. 30, on the competitive basis of human deception and detection; + Grabo (2002) chpt. 7 on the difficulty of the problem of deception; + Vallee (1979) pp. 67-68 on science problems vs. counterespionage problems; + Keyhoe (1950), an early journalistic account of UFO sightings; + Lazar (2019), a seemingly credible scientist's account of a massive conspiracy; + Dolan (2000) and Dolan (2009), a seemingly competent historian's documentation of evidence consistent with a massive conspiracy; + Kelleher & Knapp (2005), a scientist's and journalist's seemingly credible account of bizarre observations and reports; + Johnson (2014), a history of the dramatic effects of new science and technologies; + Andrew (2018), a history of secrets kept; + Diamond (1997) p. 426 ff., arguing that uneven distribution of resources significantly affects human history, and Frank & Bernanke (2001) pp. 535-537 and Zubrin (2019) p. 303, arguing that what is a resource depends on available technology.
What's next?
Given what we know (or believe): * How should we test the hypotheses? * What can we do about them? * What should we do?
__
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Sanger, D. E. (2018). The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age. Broadway Books. ISBN: 978-0451497901. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780451497901 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780451497901 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780451497901
Sapolsky, R. M. (2018). Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst. Penguin Books. ISBN: 978-0143110910. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780143110910 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780143110910 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016056755
Shirer, W. L. (1959). The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany. Simon & Schuster, 50th anniv. ed. ISBN: 978-1451651683. Originally published 1959; this ed. 2011. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781451651683 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781451651683 https://lccn.loc.gov/60006729
Shorrocks, A., Davies, J., Lluberas, R., & Rohner, U. (2019). Global wealth report 2019. Credit Suisse Research Institute. Oct. 2019. https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html Retrieved 4 July, 2020.
Simler, K., & Hanson, R. (2018). The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780190495992. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190495992 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190495992 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004296
Spalding, R. (2019). Stealth War: How China Took Over While America's Elite Slept. Portfolio. ISBN: 978-0593084342. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780593084342 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780593084342 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780593084342
Stephens-Davidowitz, S. (2018). Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are. Dey Street Books. ISBN: 978-0062390868. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780062390868 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780062390868 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017297094
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Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Re1 (Retraice (2020/09/07)) outlines the scope, and Re1-Re13 cover the kinds.
^3 We're using the computer science meaning of heuristic, i.e. a simple but imperfect way of solving a hard problem. The psychology meaning, i.e. answering a hard question by unconsciously substituting it with an easier, related one, is slightly different. The difference is that we're consciously substituting the hard question with the easier one. Cf. Russell & Norvig (2020) p. 84, Kahneman (2011) p. 98.
^4 Retraice (2020/11/10). But history has some reliability problems (Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12) and a noise problem (Durant & Durant (1968) p. 97).
^5 Cf. Walter (2022) p. 198, "Civil wars are rare...."
View all episodes
By Retraice, Inc.(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven
Retraice^1
On `current history', or what might be going on out there.
Air date: Monday, 7th Mar. 2022, 4:20 PM Eastern/US.
What's GOOT
The point of departure for the Retraice podcast was `intelligence', which we divided into the natural, artificial and strategic kinds.^2 The point of departure for Retraice, Inc. is the question `What's going on out there?' (What's GOOT).
An answer to What's GOOT is a hypothesis.
Current history
Specifically, such a hypothesis should be about `What's going to be in the history books?', i.e. `current history', roughly speaking. This is a heuristic.^3 It's a good starting point because it gauges what humans care about, i.e. `the care factor'.^4
Examples since late 2020: o covid--it started in early 2020, but since late 2020 it has continued to dominate politics and economies; o Jan 6th, 2021, the attack on the U.S. capital building; o Ukraine, the Feb. 24th, 2022 Russian invasion.
Compare `current history' to news. There is a ton of news being produced every day, but most of it won't end up in history books.
Hypotheses [and some predictions]
Hypotheses make predictions, but are not themselves predictions.
Here is our starting list (none of the below statements or [predictions] is well-formed or accepted by us; they're just to get things started):
1. Space: Humans are now technologically capable of living in space. Zubrin (2019).
Obviously, since Yuri Gagarin and the Vostok 1, humans have demonstrated this capability. But duration and distance make a big difference, and independence is the gold standard. So if a human lived his whole adult life aboard the International Space Station, as re-supplied by Earthlings, he would be an Earthling. If he did the same thing on Mars, but received no supplies from Earth, he'd be a Martian. If he somehow did it untethered to a single planet or moon, he'd be a Spaceman.
The hypothesis, then, is that human Martians and Spacemen are technologically possible today. This hypothesis is still problematic because, in a sense, nothing is `technologically possible' until it has been demonstrated. So we would have to further qualify it by adding something like, `given a significant reallocation of resources and a certain interval of time.' The point is, there is no longer a physical or technical barrier in the way; the barriers are economic and political.
Similar qualifications and asterisks will be necessary for all the below hypotheses; we'll leave most of them unsaid.
1.1. [prediction]: Humans will soon live on Mars. Zubrin (1996).
To make this a useful prediction, i.e. useful for the purpose of testing the hypothesis, we have to (at least) define `soon'.
1.2. Humans should prioritize space exploration at least to mitigate risk, at most to fulfill the potential of Earth-originating life. Hawking (2018) chpts. 7-8; Zubrin (2019) part 1.
1.3. The Fermi Paradox is an ominous warning about risks to life in general. For an overview, see Cirkovic (2008) p. 131 ff. For a contrary argument, see Ord (2020) p. 53 ff. and the notes on pages 309 ff.
2. Technology: Human technology risks are growing faster than their mitigation. Rees (2003) pp. 74-75; Bostrom (2019); Sanger (2018) p. 323; Sapolsky (2018) pp. 619-620.
I.e. technology generally, as used by terrorists and psychos and well-meaning fools, and thought of as the increase in individual leverage, is causing risk to out-pace mitigation.
2.1. AI: Machines are beginning to resemble intelligent creatures. Dyson (1997) pp. xii, 101, 181, 191-192, 194; Dyson (2015); Dyson (2020).
2.2. Hacking is disproportionately dangerous to civilizations. Perlroth (2020) p. 388 ff.; Sanger (2018) pp. 320-324; Kaplan (2016) pp. 276-277.
2.3. Runaway bio or nano tech is physically possible. Nouri & Chyba (2008); Phoenix & Treder (2008).
3. Death: Human lifespan is being prolonged by new technologies. Gawande (2014) pp. 32-36; Johnson (2014) pp. 140-142; Walter (2020) pp. 44-46; Durant & Durant (1968) p. 99.
3.1. A longevity `escape velocity' is physically possible. de Grey (2007) p. 330, and p. 362 for the history of the term.
4. China: The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely. Allison (2018); Pillsbury (2015); Spalding (2019); Kilcullen (2020); Lee (2018); Osnos (2020/01/06).
4.1. The U.S. is declining. Orlov (2008); Putnam (2015); Chomsky (2017); Reid (2017) pp. 11, 212-218, p. 249 ff.
4.2. China is rising. Allison (2018); Mitter (2008); Pillsbury (2015).
4.3. [prediction]: Civilizational collapse (of the US and/or China and/or Russia) will happen within our lifetimes.
How long is `our lifetimes'? What if all three collapse due to a global collapse? This prediction needs lots of work.
5. Civil War: The U.S. seems vulnerable to a civil war this decade. Walter (2022).
`Seems' is crucial here. Even if it's not strictly vulnerable (given an objective definition of vulnerable^5 , the perception that it is vulnerable would have significant effects. And `this decade' is an arbitrary boundary. What if war broke out Jan. 1st, 2030, which is less than 8 years from now?
6. Environment: Humans are changing their earthly environment faster than they can adapt to it.
In a sense, this is strictly not true, since if we weren't adapting to it, we'd be dead. But credible, smart people are saying that this is the direction we're headed. Rees (2003) chpt. 8; Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008) chpt. 13; Ord (2020) pp. 102-119.
6.1. The Earth seems to be warming up significantly. Ord (2020) p. 103 and sources cited; Romm (2016) pp. 2-3; Pogue (2021) p. 9.
Again, the word `seems' means that there will be effects whether or not the warming is `significant'.
6.2. Humans are in the middle of an extinction event. Rees (2008) p. v; Rees (2003) p. 100 ff.; Ord (2020) p. 117 ff.
7. Betterment: Some things make the future better than the past.
The most obvious and uncontroversial is: reduction of violence. See Pinker (2011) chpts. 1-7 on the history of it and Sapolsky (2018)'s response to Pinker, pp. 615-620.
Two more obvious and uncontroversial things that make the future better than the past are: reduction of cruelty and reduction of suffering. Baumeister (1999) pp. 375-378.
Alternatively, for a definition of `progress' we might use "the increasing control of the environment by life." Durant & Durant (1968) p. 98.
Alternatively again, for a definition of `progress' we might say, increasing "the transmission of our mental, moral, technical, and aesthetic heritage as fully as possible to as many as possible", i.e. `education'. Durant & Durant (1968) p. 101.
On the complexity of what each of us considers `better', consider the concept of `caring'. See Frankfurt (1988) and Retraice (2020/11/10).
8. Intelligence: There are intelligence differences. Herrnstein & Murray (1996); Sternberg (2020); Deary (2001). Also, see Sapolsky (2018) p. 582 on IQ and death row, and Baumeister (1999) pp. 263-264 on self-control and crime.
9. Darkness: There is a pervasive darkness in humans, even amongst the good guys.
+ Salter (2003) pp. 10-14 on pervasiveness; + Pinker (2011) chpt. 8, especially pp. 490-492 and Baumeister (1999), e.g. pp. 68-69 and chpt. 8, on universality, i.e. `even amongst the good guys'; + Sapolsky (2018) pp. 602-603 and p. 611 on biological and environmental components of criminal behavior and (perceived) wrongdoing.
Obviously our definition of `darkness' and `good guys' makes all the difference. But consider:
+ Shirer (1959), e.g. pp. 231-232 and pp. 239-240, on the complacency of non-Nazi Germans; + O'Donnell (2004), e.g. pp. 54-55, on the brutality of wartime espionage; + Stephens-Davidowitz (2018) pp. 6-7 and pp. 121-122 on the ugliness of our Google searches; + Simler & Hanson (2018) pp. 5-14 on our ulterior motives, primarily selfishness; + Chomsky (1970) pp. 3-4 on `the backroom boys', i.e. chemists at Dow Chemical who made napalm a more and more vicious weapon, pleasing at least one American pilot. Chomsky is quoting a caption from a photo book about the Vietnam war, Griffiths (1971). + Sapolsky (2018) chpt. 13 on the biological underpinnings of moral behavior; + Baumeister (1999) p. 205 and Salter (2003) pp. 104-105 on the acquired nature of sadism.
9.1. Good guys with darkness are yet good.
Examples require first defining `darkness' and `good'. But consider how many world leaders, reasonably credited with doing good things, also had/have dark sides. Can we really decide that a president (JFK, adultery), or an activist (MLK, adultery), or a politician (W. Bush, Iraq), or a general (Powell, Iraq), or a musician (Eminem, misogynist language), or a comedian (Chappelle, misogynist language), or an athlete (Armstrong, doping) who has done wrong is therefor a bad guy? But `not bad guy' is a poor definition of `good guy'. So what is the threshold of good things (as defined by which or how many people) a person must do to be considered `good'?
(Note: We're not unaware that this list is all men, and that `guy' can be read as referring only to men. Please consider that examples of women who have famously done good but also famously done bad are harder to construct, and that we use `guys' as a single-syllable synonym for `people' or `persons'.)
9.2. What makes the darkness so powerful is a general unwillingness to acknowledge it.
This hypothesis needs a lot of work, but consider:
o Pinker (2011) p. 492 and Simler & Hanson (2018) chpt. 5 on self-deception; o Salter (2003) chpt. 9 on `rose-colored glasses and trauma'; o Baumeister (1999) p. 379 on the stereotype of `pure evil'.
10. Wealth: The current trend toward concentration of wealth is making human life worse. Chomsky (2017) pp. ix-xi; Putnam (2015) p. 35. These sources focus on the U.S. For a global perspective on the past two decades, showing a slight decrease in concentration, see Shorrocks et al. (2019) p. 25 ff.
The hypothesis is obviously sensitive to definitions of `human life' and `better/worse'.
11. Wildcards: New technologies, new discoveries about reality, and deception regularly cause historic changes.
Considerations and candidates:
+ Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12 on history, technology and `fundamental forces'; + Bostrom (2011) on the dangers of certain kinds of (true) information; + Bostrom (2019) on `black ball' inventions; + Simler & Hanson (2018), e.g. p. 30, on the competitive basis of human deception and detection; + Grabo (2002) chpt. 7 on the difficulty of the problem of deception; + Vallee (1979) pp. 67-68 on science problems vs. counterespionage problems; + Keyhoe (1950), an early journalistic account of UFO sightings; + Lazar (2019), a seemingly credible scientist's account of a massive conspiracy; + Dolan (2000) and Dolan (2009), a seemingly competent historian's documentation of evidence consistent with a massive conspiracy; + Kelleher & Knapp (2005), a scientist's and journalist's seemingly credible account of bizarre observations and reports; + Johnson (2014), a history of the dramatic effects of new science and technologies; + Andrew (2018), a history of secrets kept; + Diamond (1997) p. 426 ff., arguing that uneven distribution of resources significantly affects human history, and Frank & Bernanke (2001) pp. 535-537 and Zubrin (2019) p. 303, arguing that what is a resource depends on available technology.
What's next?
Given what we know (or believe): * How should we test the hypotheses? * What can we do about them? * What should we do?
__
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Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Re1 (Retraice (2020/09/07)) outlines the scope, and Re1-Re13 cover the kinds.
^3 We're using the computer science meaning of heuristic, i.e. a simple but imperfect way of solving a hard problem. The psychology meaning, i.e. answering a hard question by unconsciously substituting it with an easier, related one, is slightly different. The difference is that we're consciously substituting the hard question with the easier one. Cf. Russell & Norvig (2020) p. 84, Kahneman (2011) p. 98.
^4 Retraice (2020/11/10). But history has some reliability problems (Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12) and a noise problem (Durant & Durant (1968) p. 97).
^5 Cf. Walter (2022) p. 198, "Civil wars are rare...."