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Re20-NOTES.pdf
(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re20: The Deadline Problem
Retraice^1
Real deadlines make allocating resources hard.
Air date: Sunday, 16th Oct. 2022, 11:25 PM Eastern/US.
Do or die
They do not preach that their God will rouse them a little before the nuts work loose.^2
How to allocate resources when the (real) deadline is unknown?
Let's call `real' deadlines the ones we don't decide for ourselves, the ones decided by nature.
The fog of the future
Important points about deadlines:
1. Deadlines are in the future. 2. The future is largely uncertain. 3. The deadlines, which are in the future, are largely uncertain. 4. If deadlines are uncertain, allocating resources is uncertain. 5. Allocating resources changes deadlines.
The deadline problem is that we don't have a good way of allocating resources when the real deadline is unknown. We do allocate, but how we do it is not adequate to NINFA (nature is not f-ing around) things. Evidence of this inadequacy is, say, every past collapsed civilization, every tragic death, and perhaps the Fermi paradox (see below).
Hypotheses and deadlines
More broadly we can say that, if `nature is not f-ing around', the hypotheses all likely have deadlines hiding in the fog of the future. * H-1. Space: Humans are now technologically capable of living in space. If our environment is Earth, or even the whole solar system^3 , then our new capacity to live in space expands our environment dramatically, to `the rest' of the world as we know it. Humans who are native to `the rest' will not think or behave the way that Earth humans do.^4 * H-2. Technology: Human technology risks are growing faster than their mitigation. Think: AI kills us all, nanotech kills us all, genetically modified superhumans kill us all, etc. * H-3. Death: Human lifespan is being prolonged by new technologies. Think: One group of effectively immortal humans against the rest.^5
This exercise in imagining the deadlines hidden in the future can be applied similarly to the other hypotheses: * H-4. China: The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely. * H-5. Civil War: The U.S. seems vulnerable to a civil war this decade. * H-6. Environment: Humans are changing their earthly environment faster than they can adapt to it. * H-7. Betterment: Some things make the future better than the past. * H-8. Intelligence: There are intelligence differences. * H-9. Darkness: There is a pervasive darkness in humans, even amongst the good guys. * H-10. Wealth: The current trend toward concentration of wealth is making human life worse. * H-11. Wildcards: New technologies, new discoveries about reality, and deception regularly cause historic changes. * H-12. Computers: Some humans now control others better, but machinery could take control.
Your groups and resources
What are your groups? Civilization, country, region, community, neighborhood, family? How do you allocate resources? Even if you could do the math of probability and decision theory, the deadline problem makes allocation hard. We usually just shoot from the hip.^6
Feedback loops
The problem is especially hard because of point 5 above, "Allocating resources changes deadlines". This is something like the way deliberation can make a person's actions highly unpredictable^7 and sometimes paralyzing.^8
Toy examples: stepping out of the path of an oncoming train; nudging the steering wheel of a car before it crashes.^9
The Fermi paradox
If the universe is so hospitable to life, where is everybody? It could be that we're seeing the results of many civilizations failing to meet nature's deadlines.^10
_
References
Andreou, C., & White, M. D. (Eds.) (2010). The Thief of Time: Philosophical Essays on Procrastination. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0195376685. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780195376685 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780195376685 https://lccn.loc.gov/2009021750
Bostrom, N., & Cirkovic, M. M. (Eds.) (2008). Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0199606504. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0199606504 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0199606504 https://lccn.loc.gov/2008006539
Evans, J., & Frankish, K. (Eds.) (2009). In Two Minds: Dual Processes and Beyond. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0199230167. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780199230167 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780199230167 https://lccn.loc.gov/2008043743
Horwich, P. (1987). Asymmetries in Time: Problems in the Philosophy of Science. MIT Press. ISBN: 0262081644. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0262081644 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0262081644 https://lccn.loc.gov/86028632
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN: 978-0374533557. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0374533557 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0374533557 https://lccn.loc.gov/2012533187
Kipling, R. (1907). The Sons of Martha. The Standard. April 29, 1907. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Sons_of_Martha Retrieved 17th Oct. 2022.
Liu, C. (2017). Death's End. Tor Books. ISBN: 978-0765386632. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780765386632 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780765386632 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016295859
Niven, L., Pournelle, J., & Barnes, S. (1987). The Legacy of Heorot. Simon & Schuster. ISBN: 978-1982124373. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781982124373 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781982124373 https://lccn.loc.gov/87004503
Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Hachette. ISBN: 978-0316484916. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0316484916 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0316484916 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019956459
Webb, S. (2015). If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody? Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life. Springer, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-3319132358. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9783319132358 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9783319132358 https://lccn.loc.gov/2015930256
Zubrin, R. (2019). The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility. Prometheus Books. ISBN: 978-1633885349. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1633885349 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1633885349 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018061068
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Kipling (1907). See also Niven et al. (1987).
^3 Zubrin (2019) p. 299.
^4 See Liu (2017) pp. 114-115 on the rapid emergence of totalitarianism and cannibalism.
^5 The plot of the movie In Time (2011).
^6 Kahneman (2011); Evans & Frankish (2009).
^7 Horwich (1987) p. 182 ff.
^8 Andreou & White (2010).
^9 See the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety: https://www.iihs.org/
^10 Webb (2015); Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008); Ord (2020).
View all episodes
By Retraice, Inc.(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re20: The Deadline Problem
Retraice^1
Real deadlines make allocating resources hard.
Air date: Sunday, 16th Oct. 2022, 11:25 PM Eastern/US.
Do or die
They do not preach that their God will rouse them a little before the nuts work loose.^2
How to allocate resources when the (real) deadline is unknown?
Let's call `real' deadlines the ones we don't decide for ourselves, the ones decided by nature.
The fog of the future
Important points about deadlines:
1. Deadlines are in the future. 2. The future is largely uncertain. 3. The deadlines, which are in the future, are largely uncertain. 4. If deadlines are uncertain, allocating resources is uncertain. 5. Allocating resources changes deadlines.
The deadline problem is that we don't have a good way of allocating resources when the real deadline is unknown. We do allocate, but how we do it is not adequate to NINFA (nature is not f-ing around) things. Evidence of this inadequacy is, say, every past collapsed civilization, every tragic death, and perhaps the Fermi paradox (see below).
Hypotheses and deadlines
More broadly we can say that, if `nature is not f-ing around', the hypotheses all likely have deadlines hiding in the fog of the future. * H-1. Space: Humans are now technologically capable of living in space. If our environment is Earth, or even the whole solar system^3 , then our new capacity to live in space expands our environment dramatically, to `the rest' of the world as we know it. Humans who are native to `the rest' will not think or behave the way that Earth humans do.^4 * H-2. Technology: Human technology risks are growing faster than their mitigation. Think: AI kills us all, nanotech kills us all, genetically modified superhumans kill us all, etc. * H-3. Death: Human lifespan is being prolonged by new technologies. Think: One group of effectively immortal humans against the rest.^5
This exercise in imagining the deadlines hidden in the future can be applied similarly to the other hypotheses: * H-4. China: The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely. * H-5. Civil War: The U.S. seems vulnerable to a civil war this decade. * H-6. Environment: Humans are changing their earthly environment faster than they can adapt to it. * H-7. Betterment: Some things make the future better than the past. * H-8. Intelligence: There are intelligence differences. * H-9. Darkness: There is a pervasive darkness in humans, even amongst the good guys. * H-10. Wealth: The current trend toward concentration of wealth is making human life worse. * H-11. Wildcards: New technologies, new discoveries about reality, and deception regularly cause historic changes. * H-12. Computers: Some humans now control others better, but machinery could take control.
Your groups and resources
What are your groups? Civilization, country, region, community, neighborhood, family? How do you allocate resources? Even if you could do the math of probability and decision theory, the deadline problem makes allocation hard. We usually just shoot from the hip.^6
Feedback loops
The problem is especially hard because of point 5 above, "Allocating resources changes deadlines". This is something like the way deliberation can make a person's actions highly unpredictable^7 and sometimes paralyzing.^8
Toy examples: stepping out of the path of an oncoming train; nudging the steering wheel of a car before it crashes.^9
The Fermi paradox
If the universe is so hospitable to life, where is everybody? It could be that we're seeing the results of many civilizations failing to meet nature's deadlines.^10
_
References
Andreou, C., & White, M. D. (Eds.) (2010). The Thief of Time: Philosophical Essays on Procrastination. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0195376685. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780195376685 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780195376685 https://lccn.loc.gov/2009021750
Bostrom, N., & Cirkovic, M. M. (Eds.) (2008). Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0199606504. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0199606504 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0199606504 https://lccn.loc.gov/2008006539
Evans, J., & Frankish, K. (Eds.) (2009). In Two Minds: Dual Processes and Beyond. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0199230167. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780199230167 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780199230167 https://lccn.loc.gov/2008043743
Horwich, P. (1987). Asymmetries in Time: Problems in the Philosophy of Science. MIT Press. ISBN: 0262081644. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0262081644 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0262081644 https://lccn.loc.gov/86028632
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN: 978-0374533557. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0374533557 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0374533557 https://lccn.loc.gov/2012533187
Kipling, R. (1907). The Sons of Martha. The Standard. April 29, 1907. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Sons_of_Martha Retrieved 17th Oct. 2022.
Liu, C. (2017). Death's End. Tor Books. ISBN: 978-0765386632. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780765386632 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780765386632 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016295859
Niven, L., Pournelle, J., & Barnes, S. (1987). The Legacy of Heorot. Simon & Schuster. ISBN: 978-1982124373. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781982124373 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781982124373 https://lccn.loc.gov/87004503
Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Hachette. ISBN: 978-0316484916. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0316484916 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0316484916 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019956459
Webb, S. (2015). If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... Where Is Everybody? Seventy-Five Solutions to the Fermi Paradox and the Problem of Extraterrestrial Life. Springer, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-3319132358. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9783319132358 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9783319132358 https://lccn.loc.gov/2015930256
Zubrin, R. (2019). The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility. Prometheus Books. ISBN: 978-1633885349. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1633885349 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1633885349 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018061068
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Kipling (1907). See also Niven et al. (1987).
^3 Zubrin (2019) p. 299.
^4 See Liu (2017) pp. 114-115 on the rapid emergence of totalitarianism and cannibalism.
^5 The plot of the movie In Time (2011).
^6 Kahneman (2011); Evans & Frankish (2009).
^7 Horwich (1987) p. 182 ff.
^8 Andreou & White (2010).
^9 See the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety: https://www.iihs.org/
^10 Webb (2015); Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008); Ord (2020).