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Re27: Now That's a World Model - WM4

Retraice^1

A world model should model the world.

Air date: Sunday, 23rd Oct. 2022, 11:45 PM Eastern/US.

Natural intelligence is threat modeling

The intelligence part of what we are does at least one major thing: threat modeling^2 : o Self model: (see below). o Locale model: the hypotheses, i.e. guesses about current history (H1-H13 and beyond). o World model: a guess about cosmology (God? Physics/entropy/many-worlds? Simulation?). o Threat models of catastrophic risk:

- Micro: loss of moments, time, attention.

- Partial: limb or limitation risk.

- Individual: single human.

- Local: all group.

- Global: all human.

Self model: survivors and thrivers

And what are we? Survival machines (or escape machines). First, we must rage against the dying of the light (survive).^3 Then we must do everything else (thrive), which is the stuff we care about^4 , and secondary. * Individuals escape from the four F's.^5 * Populations over time evolve to get better at escape.

Motivation model: fun and doom

What would motivate us against doom, compared to near-term fun? The problem is that wealth and power are so motivating. But loss feels twice as intense as gain.^6 Is the solution to arouse the anticipation of loss without overdosing on it?^7

Decisions: The two problems of life and the problem of death

Two problems of life:

1. To change the world?

2. To change oneself (that part of the world)?

Problem of death:

1. Dead things rarely become alive, whereas alive things regularly become dead. What to do?

Nature is physics, selection and not f-ing around

Think: physics, evolutionary biology, computer science, economics, complexity, resource constraints. * Genetics is about replicators (genes) and vehicles (organisms),^8 i.e. biological `mechanically advantaged energy' (MAE or `leverage') in the contest between inanimate and animate matter via natural selection.^9 * Kardashev scale of civilization types^10 : 0.70: Robotics, human-scale MAE. 0.73: Nanotech, or nano-scale MAE. 1.0: planetary-scale MAE. 2.0: solar-scale MAE. 3.0: galactic scale MAE.

Strategic intelligence is game theory

1. Blue and red, bipolar human group conflict: the most basic game in game theory, which gives rise to strategy.

2. Multipolar conflicts give rise to group strategy (intelligence organizations).

3. Trust is the main problem in the prisoner's dilemma, and intelligence organizations.

Artificial intelligence is computer control

* Leverage mechanisms explode in complexity, which leads to the need for computers (think Turing machines). * Leverage mechanisms explode in power, which leads to the need for control (think cybernetics). * Computer control, then, is: Turning-machine cybernetics. * Control of computer artifacts (hardware) is physics, chemistry and engineering. * Control of computer electrons (voltages, code) is coding. * AI is: classical code (steps yield precise results) and AI code (steps improve imprecise results).^11

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References

Benson, A. C. (1916). Escape, and Other Essays. Echo Library. ISBN: 978-1847029010. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1847029010 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1847029010 https://lccn.loc.gov/15019279

Dawkins, R. (2016). The Selfish Gene. Oxford, 40th anniv. ed. ISBN: 978-0198788607. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780198788607 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780198788607 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016933210

Dyson, G. (2020). Analogia: The Emergence of Technology Beyond Programmable Control. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN: 978-0374104863. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780374104863 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780374104863 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780374104863

Frankfurt, H. G. (1988). The Importance of What We Care About. Cambridge. ISBN: 978-0521336116. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0521336116 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0521336116 https://lccn.loc.gov/87026941

Gopnik, A., Meltzoff, A. N., & Kuhl, P. K. (1999). The Scientist in the Crib: What Early Learning Tells Us About the Mind. Perennial / HarperCollins. ISBN: 0688159885. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0688159885 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0688159885 https://lccn.loc.gov/99024247

Kissinger, H. A., Schmidt, E., & Huttenlocher, D. (2021). The Age of AI. Little, Brown and Company. ISBN: 978-0316273800. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780316273800 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780316273800 https://lccn.loc.gov/2021943914

Retraice (2020/11/10). Re13: The Care Factor. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re13 Retrieved 10th Nov. 2020.

Schneier, B. (2000). Secrets and Lies: Digital Security in a Networked World. Wiley. ISBN: 0471453803. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0471453803 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0471453803 https://lccn.loc.gov/00042252

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice

^2 Schneier (2000) chpt. 19.

^3 Do not go gentle into that good night, Thomas (1951)

^4 Retraice (2020/11/10); Frankfurt (1988).

^5 Benson (1916) on escape. Gopnik et al. (1999) p. 158 on the "central evolutionary business" of fighting, fleeing, feeding and fornicating. We can think of these as `escaping' from noxious feelings or stimuli.

^6 Loss aversion.

^7 Something else that might motivate us is love.

^8 Dawkins (2016) pp. x-xiii. Other considerations: memes (Dawkins (2016) chpt. 11), analogia (Dyson (2020)).

^9 We are asserting here that genetics and biology are ultimately about physical leverage. We have no source, as yet, to support this view. MAE is our term, as far as we know.

^10 Kardashev Scale and Sagan interpolation.

^11 Kissinger et al. (2021) p. 58.