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Re36: Notes on Conspiracy

Retraice^1

To secure our shared world model against devastating attack is going to take some doing.

Air date: Monday, 31st Oct. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.

Conspiracy and conspiracy theory

Conspiracies are things that happen in the world. Conspiracy theories, we generally assume, are false convictions about things that didn't happen in the world.

Securing our shared world against devastating attack by conspiracy is the job of leadership (politicians), law enforcement (police, law courts) and journalism.

To secure our shared world model against devastating attack (i.e. conspiracy) or devastating error (i.e. conspiracy theory) is going to take some doing. The main task is calibration: tests for conspiracy and conspiracy theory.

Problem 1: Consistency in conspiracy theory

To the outsider, who only has access to public information, the evidence in conspiracy theories^2 is consistent with: o A: conspiracy (attack on world); o B: conspiracy to disinform (attack on world model); o C: incompetence (error on the part of the observers or messengers).

This problem applies to outsiders. Insiders (those with access to private information) have less cause for doubt since their knowledge is more direct and their world models are more accurate in the relevant parts.

Problem 2: Don't forget the obvious

* Science is not up to the challenge of counterintelligence, especially denial and deception.^3 * Trusting institutions is a vulnerability. * Deception is profound: Intelligence analyst Cynthia Grabo on deception:

"Confidence [in our] judgment of the adversary's intentions fades as one contemplates the chilling prospect of deception. There is no single facet of the warning problem so unpredictable, and yet so potentially damaging in its effect, as deception.... [T]he most brilliant analysis may founder in the face of deception and ... the most expert and experienced among us on occasion may be as vulnerable as the novice."^4

Problem 3: If there is neglect, why?

If others who should or would be focused on a given conspiracy (assuming it's actually happening) aren't focused on it, why? Why are they neglecting it?

1. lack of plausibility (they're guessing that it's nothing, or something benign);

2. reasons of conformity (since no one is doing it, they won't either);

3. fear;

4. complicity;

5. the price of information.^5

These considerations remind me of John Gatto's research,^6 and to some extent Chomsky's.^7 Both authors had a difficult case to make with respect to the general neglect of their target conspiracies.

Amendment: Re32 -- `BIM'

"Building Information Modeling (BIM) is the holistic process of creating and managing information for a built asset. Based on an intelligent model and enabled by a cloud platform, BIM integrates structured, multi-disciplinary data to produce a digital representation of an asset across its lifecycle, from planning and design to construction and operations."^8

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References

Gatto, J. T. (2006). The Underground History of American Education. Oxford Village Press. ISBN: 0945700040. https://archive.org/details/TheUndergroundHistoryOfAmericanEducation_643 Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0945700040 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0945700040

Grabo, C. M. (2002). Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning. Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. ISBN: 0965619567 https://www.ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf Retrieved 7th Sep. 2020.

Herman, E. S., & Chomsky, N. (1988). Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media. Pantheon. ISBN: 0679720340. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0679720340 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0679720340 https://lccn.loc.gov/88042614

Lowenthal, M. M. (2020). Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy. CQ Press / SAGE Publications, 8th ed. ISBN: 978-1544358345. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1544358345 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1544358345 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019027254 Other editions available at: https://archive.org/search.php?query=Intelligence%3A%20From%20Secrets%20to%20Policy

Retraice (2020/09/07). Re1: Three Kinds of Intelligence. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re1 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.

Retraice (2022/10/27). Re32: AI News. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re32 Retrieved 31st Oct. 2022.

Vallee, J. (1979). Messengers of Deception: UFO Contacts and Cults. And/Or Press. ISBN: 0915904381. Different edition and searches: https://archive.org/details/MessengersOfDeceptionUFOContactsAndCultsJacquesValle1979/mode/2up https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0915904381 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0915904381 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=0915904381

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice

^2 Cf. Retraice (2020/09/07) on `Secrets--Likely and Unlikely'.

^3 Vallee (1979) p. 66 ff.; Lowenthal (2020) p. 95, and chpt. 7, especially pp. 212-213.

^4 Grabo (2002) p. 119.

^5 Vallee (1979), `Major Murphy' p. 66 ff. And see Retraice (2020/09/07): "The question, then, is whether there's a difference between information that is expensive by accident (being on Mars) and information that is expensive on purpose (being camouflaged)."

^6 Gatto (2006).

^7 Most of his non-linguistic work suffers this problem; Herman & Chomsky (1988) is an example.

^8 Autodesk on BIM. See also Retraice (2022/10/27) notes.