Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share Re37-NOTES.pdf
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
Re37-NOTES.pdf
(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re37: Notes on Solutions to Conspiracy
Retraice^1
What it would take to secure our shared world and world model.
Air date: Tuesday, 1st Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
Targets and attacks
The solutions to the problems of conspiracy (attacks on our shared world) and conspiracy theory (attacks on our shared world model) are obvious.
Gold and silver: incentives and tests
Two general rules:
1. Align the incentives (or only look where they're aligned). "The gold and silver of science is original discovery."^2 2. Focus on what is knowable (by a standard of evidence^3); measure belief in degrees;^4 never completely trust a single source, and avoid situations where you might have no choice.
What's your gold and silver? (We can assume that ulterior, hidden^5 motives are always lurking in the background, no matter who you are.) Here are some obvious ones, and some guesses: * scientists: making original discoveries; * journalists: making original discoveries; * law enforcement officers: catching the bad guys; * lawyers: winning legal arguments; * politicians: winning elections, controlling laws and policies; * bureaucrats, government agents: doing right, important work.
Lead bullets: people, standards, tools
Silver bullets are a myth. We need lead bullets:^6 * People: a lot of eyes on this stuff. How many are there now? What eyes could be shifted to it? * Standards: + an absolute top-notch standard of evidence (including custody of evidence);^7 + an absolute top-notch standard of reasoning.^8 + answers to the questions: What do you think you know? Why do you think you know it?^9 * Trustable tools:
Computer scientist and voting machine expert Alex Halderman (interviewed by Sue Halpern):
"We don't have to just blindly trust that technology, and I think this is what the Stop the Steal movement misses, that we can make use of technology in elections without just having to have faith that it's operating correctly, and the people who are operating it are doing everything right. The most important part of that is auditing the results of the election in a statistically rigorous way, what's known as a risk-limiting audit. What a risk-limiting audit does is it has people go and look at the original, hopefully, hand-marked paper ballots, and you look at enough of them to rule out with high probability the possibility that the computer outcome is wrong. In an election that's a landslide, you only have to look at a few ballots to do that. If the elections are a tie, well, you want to go in and recount them all by hand the same way we might traditionally do a recount of a very, very close race. A risk-limiting audit lets you use technology to count quickly without having to blindly trust that technology to get the right answer."^10
Cf. Ken Thompson's talk `On trusting trust':
"You can't trust code that you did not totally create yourself."
"Perhaps it is more important to trust the people who wrote the software."^11
The hard thing: anything goes
`The hard thing about hard things' is that "there is no formula for dealing with them."^12 Compare the conclusion `against method': "The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes"^13
_
References
Brockman, J. (Ed.) (2016). Life: The Leading Edge of Evolutionary Biology, Genetics, Anthropology, and Environmental Science. Harper Perennial. ISBN: 978-0062296054. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780062296054 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780062296054 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016499276
Feyerabend, P. (1975). Against Method. Verso, 3rd ed. ISBN: 978-0860916468. First ed. 1975; this third ed. 1993. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780860916468 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780860916468 https://lccn.loc.gov/76352961
Feynman, R. (1974). Cargo cult science. Engineering and Science, 7(37), 10-13. http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/3043/1/CargoCult.pdf Retrieved 20th Mar. 2019.
Heuer, R. J. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Martino Fine Books. ISBN: 978-1684224128. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781684224128 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781684224128 https://lccn.loc.gov/99489116
Horowitz, B. (2014). The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answers. Harper Business. ISBN: 978-0062273208. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0062273208 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0062273208 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017448298
Horwich, P. (1982). Probability and Evidence. Cambridge. First published 1982; first paperback 2011; this Cambridge Philosophy Classics edition 2016. ISBN: 978-1316507018. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1316507018 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1316507018 https://lccn.loc.gov/2015049717
Okasha, S. (2002). Philosophy of Science: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 0192802836. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0192802836 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0192802836 https://lccn.loc.gov/2002510456
Polya, G. (1954). Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning [Two Volumes in One]. Martino Fine Books. ISBN: 978-1614275572. Originally published 1954. This ed. 2014. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781614275572 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781614275572 https://lccn.loc.gov/53006388
Simler, K., & Hanson, R. (2018). The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780190495992. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190495992 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190495992 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004296
Thompson, K. (1984). Reflections on trusting trust. Communications of the ACM, 27(8), 761-763. Aug. 1984. https://doi.org/10.1145/358198.358210 Also available at: https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rdriley/487/papers/Thompson_1984_ReflectionsonTrustingTrust.pdf Retrieved 4th Dec. 2020.
Weston, A. (2000). A Rulebook for Arguments. Hackett, 3rd ed. ISBN: 0872205525. Also available at: https://archive.org/details/rulebookforargum00west_3 Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0872205525 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0872205525 https://lccn.loc.gov/00058121
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 E. O. Wilson in Brockman (2016) p. 72.
^3 E.g. Horwich (1982) pp. 3-10.
^4 Horwich (1982) p. 1.
^5 Simler & Hanson (2018).
^6 Horowitz (2014) p. 88 ff.
^7 Cf. science's `Photoshop problem'. Science Has a Nasty Photoshopping Problem, nytimes.com Oct. 29th, 2022. Retrieved 1st Nov. 2022. See also The ongoing replication crisis in science, wikipedia.org.
^8 Weston (2000); Feynman (1974); Heuer (1999); Okasha (2002); Polya (1954).
^9 The Fundamental Question of Rationality, Eliezer Yudkowsky, lesswrong.com. Retrieved 4th Nov. 2022.
^10 The Vulnerabilities of our Voting Machines, and How to Secure Them, New Yorker Radio Hour, wnycstudios.org, Oct. 21st, 2022. Retrieved 4th Nov. 2022.
^11 Thompson (1984) pp. 763, 761.
^12 Horowitz (2014) p. x.
^13 Feyerabend (1975) p. 5.
View all episodes
By Retraice, Inc.(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re37: Notes on Solutions to Conspiracy
Retraice^1
What it would take to secure our shared world and world model.
Air date: Tuesday, 1st Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
Targets and attacks
The solutions to the problems of conspiracy (attacks on our shared world) and conspiracy theory (attacks on our shared world model) are obvious.
Gold and silver: incentives and tests
Two general rules:
1. Align the incentives (or only look where they're aligned). "The gold and silver of science is original discovery."^2 2. Focus on what is knowable (by a standard of evidence^3); measure belief in degrees;^4 never completely trust a single source, and avoid situations where you might have no choice.
What's your gold and silver? (We can assume that ulterior, hidden^5 motives are always lurking in the background, no matter who you are.) Here are some obvious ones, and some guesses: * scientists: making original discoveries; * journalists: making original discoveries; * law enforcement officers: catching the bad guys; * lawyers: winning legal arguments; * politicians: winning elections, controlling laws and policies; * bureaucrats, government agents: doing right, important work.
Lead bullets: people, standards, tools
Silver bullets are a myth. We need lead bullets:^6 * People: a lot of eyes on this stuff. How many are there now? What eyes could be shifted to it? * Standards: + an absolute top-notch standard of evidence (including custody of evidence);^7 + an absolute top-notch standard of reasoning.^8 + answers to the questions: What do you think you know? Why do you think you know it?^9 * Trustable tools:
Computer scientist and voting machine expert Alex Halderman (interviewed by Sue Halpern):
"We don't have to just blindly trust that technology, and I think this is what the Stop the Steal movement misses, that we can make use of technology in elections without just having to have faith that it's operating correctly, and the people who are operating it are doing everything right. The most important part of that is auditing the results of the election in a statistically rigorous way, what's known as a risk-limiting audit. What a risk-limiting audit does is it has people go and look at the original, hopefully, hand-marked paper ballots, and you look at enough of them to rule out with high probability the possibility that the computer outcome is wrong. In an election that's a landslide, you only have to look at a few ballots to do that. If the elections are a tie, well, you want to go in and recount them all by hand the same way we might traditionally do a recount of a very, very close race. A risk-limiting audit lets you use technology to count quickly without having to blindly trust that technology to get the right answer."^10
Cf. Ken Thompson's talk `On trusting trust':
"You can't trust code that you did not totally create yourself."
"Perhaps it is more important to trust the people who wrote the software."^11
The hard thing: anything goes
`The hard thing about hard things' is that "there is no formula for dealing with them."^12 Compare the conclusion `against method': "The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes"^13
_
References
Brockman, J. (Ed.) (2016). Life: The Leading Edge of Evolutionary Biology, Genetics, Anthropology, and Environmental Science. Harper Perennial. ISBN: 978-0062296054. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780062296054 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780062296054 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016499276
Feyerabend, P. (1975). Against Method. Verso, 3rd ed. ISBN: 978-0860916468. First ed. 1975; this third ed. 1993. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780860916468 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780860916468 https://lccn.loc.gov/76352961
Feynman, R. (1974). Cargo cult science. Engineering and Science, 7(37), 10-13. http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/3043/1/CargoCult.pdf Retrieved 20th Mar. 2019.
Heuer, R. J. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Martino Fine Books. ISBN: 978-1684224128. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781684224128 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781684224128 https://lccn.loc.gov/99489116
Horowitz, B. (2014). The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answers. Harper Business. ISBN: 978-0062273208. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0062273208 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0062273208 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017448298
Horwich, P. (1982). Probability and Evidence. Cambridge. First published 1982; first paperback 2011; this Cambridge Philosophy Classics edition 2016. ISBN: 978-1316507018. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1316507018 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1316507018 https://lccn.loc.gov/2015049717
Okasha, S. (2002). Philosophy of Science: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 0192802836. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0192802836 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0192802836 https://lccn.loc.gov/2002510456
Polya, G. (1954). Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning [Two Volumes in One]. Martino Fine Books. ISBN: 978-1614275572. Originally published 1954. This ed. 2014. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781614275572 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781614275572 https://lccn.loc.gov/53006388
Simler, K., & Hanson, R. (2018). The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780190495992. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190495992 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190495992 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004296
Thompson, K. (1984). Reflections on trusting trust. Communications of the ACM, 27(8), 761-763. Aug. 1984. https://doi.org/10.1145/358198.358210 Also available at: https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rdriley/487/papers/Thompson_1984_ReflectionsonTrustingTrust.pdf Retrieved 4th Dec. 2020.
Weston, A. (2000). A Rulebook for Arguments. Hackett, 3rd ed. ISBN: 0872205525. Also available at: https://archive.org/details/rulebookforargum00west_3 Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0872205525 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0872205525 https://lccn.loc.gov/00058121
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 E. O. Wilson in Brockman (2016) p. 72.
^3 E.g. Horwich (1982) pp. 3-10.
^4 Horwich (1982) p. 1.
^5 Simler & Hanson (2018).
^6 Horowitz (2014) p. 88 ff.
^7 Cf. science's `Photoshop problem'. Science Has a Nasty Photoshopping Problem, nytimes.com Oct. 29th, 2022. Retrieved 1st Nov. 2022. See also The ongoing replication crisis in science, wikipedia.org.
^8 Weston (2000); Feynman (1974); Heuer (1999); Okasha (2002); Polya (1954).
^9 The Fundamental Question of Rationality, Eliezer Yudkowsky, lesswrong.com. Retrieved 4th Nov. 2022.
^10 The Vulnerabilities of our Voting Machines, and How to Secure Them, New Yorker Radio Hour, wnycstudios.org, Oct. 21st, 2022. Retrieved 4th Nov. 2022.
^11 Thompson (1984) pp. 763, 761.
^12 Horowitz (2014) p. x.
^13 Feyerabend (1975) p. 5.