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Re48-NOTES.pdf
(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re48: From Drugs to Mao to Money
Retraice^1
China Part 2: A sketch of China from the Opium Wars to 2012.
Air date: Saturday, 12th Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
Our China model and H4
Model of China: The most people with the most history, mostly doing well, except lately (1839-1976), and now making a comeback: 1.4 billion people striving; intense competition in business and mating; government by a single party; risen in a U.S. world; speaking a different language.
The most relevant hypothesis is:
H4 China: `The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely.'
See Retraice (2022/03/07) for details and citations.
What happened in China (before Xi)?
We don't know for sure, we only know what historians tell us, for which a trust model would be ideal. But short of that, we know (better) things that are present-tense:
The Chinese call it the `century of humiliation'.^2
Whatever else we accept about the history of China, that sentiment is present-tense.
Now, on the history of China before Xi:^3 * Drugs: pursuing `better' (H7) via trade and substances (wealth, H10). + the Opium Wars (1839-1860): tea sold to the West, and opium sold to China, two drugs with very different effects (one stimulative, one destructive); it started with an imbalance in trade, because China sold tea, but didn't want anything the British were selling, so the British started pushing opium from India; + the `Century of Humiliation' (1839-1949); Western technology (boats, guns) won wars, lead to economic exploitation. * Mao: pursing `better' via technical modernization (technology, H2, H12). + civil war between nationalists (Chiang Kai-shek) and communists (Mao Zedong) (1927-1949); + `The Great Leap Forward' (1958-1962, 20-30 million died), peasants died, few knew at the time; + `The Cultural Revolution' (1966-1976, up to a million died), city-folk died, everybody knew at the time; + UN recognizes PRC (mainland China) over ROC (Taiwan) (1971); + Nixon visits China (1972). * Money: pursing `better' via economic reform toward the Western model (wealth, H10). + Deng Xiaoping ('70s and '80s), economic reform, `hide and bide'; + Jiang Zemin ('90s), economic reform, globalization; + Hu Jintao (2000s), economic reform, the Internet; + Economic miracle, Western companies trying to get in and profit, extraction resisted by China; + China's ideas about the top spot: `Unrestricted Warfare' (1999), `The China Dream' and the `100 Year Marathon' (2005, 2009).
__
References
Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Mariner Books. ISBN: 978-1328915382. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328915382 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328915382 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017005351
Ames, R. T. (1993). Sun Tzu: The Art of Warfare. Random House. ISBN: 034536239X. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=034536239X https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+034536239X https://lccn.loc.gov/92052662
Keay, J. (2009). China: A History. HarperCollins. ISBN: 978-0007221783. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780007221783 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780007221783 https://lccn.loc.gov/2009930982
Pillsbury, M. (2015). The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. St. Martin's Griffin. ISBN: 978-1250081346. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781250081346 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781250081346 https://lccn.loc.gov/2014012015
Qiao, L., & Wang, X. (1999). Unrestricted Warfare: China's Master Plan to Destroy America. Echo Point, reprint ed. ISBN: 978-1626543058. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781626543058 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781626543058 https://lccn.loc.gov/2006504536
Retraice (2022/03/07). Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Retrieved 17th Mar. 2022.
World Book, E. (2017). World Book Encyclopedia 2018, 22 Volume Set. World Book, Inc., 2018 ed. ISBN: 978-0716601180. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780716601180 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780716601180 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017034899
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 For China, the history that matters is still the `century of humiliation', Michael Zhou, scmp.com, Sep. 28th, 2021.
^3 Sources covering most of what follows: Keay (2009) pp. 455-460, 464-466, 523-529, 534-535; World Book (2017) vol. 3, pp. 502-507; Pillsbury (2015) pp. 27-30; Qiao & Wang (1999) pp. xvii-xxii; Ames (1993); Allison (2018).
View all episodes
By Retraice, Inc.(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re48: From Drugs to Mao to Money
Retraice^1
China Part 2: A sketch of China from the Opium Wars to 2012.
Air date: Saturday, 12th Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
Our China model and H4
Model of China: The most people with the most history, mostly doing well, except lately (1839-1976), and now making a comeback: 1.4 billion people striving; intense competition in business and mating; government by a single party; risen in a U.S. world; speaking a different language.
The most relevant hypothesis is:
H4 China: `The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely.'
See Retraice (2022/03/07) for details and citations.
What happened in China (before Xi)?
We don't know for sure, we only know what historians tell us, for which a trust model would be ideal. But short of that, we know (better) things that are present-tense:
The Chinese call it the `century of humiliation'.^2
Whatever else we accept about the history of China, that sentiment is present-tense.
Now, on the history of China before Xi:^3 * Drugs: pursuing `better' (H7) via trade and substances (wealth, H10). + the Opium Wars (1839-1860): tea sold to the West, and opium sold to China, two drugs with very different effects (one stimulative, one destructive); it started with an imbalance in trade, because China sold tea, but didn't want anything the British were selling, so the British started pushing opium from India; + the `Century of Humiliation' (1839-1949); Western technology (boats, guns) won wars, lead to economic exploitation. * Mao: pursing `better' via technical modernization (technology, H2, H12). + civil war between nationalists (Chiang Kai-shek) and communists (Mao Zedong) (1927-1949); + `The Great Leap Forward' (1958-1962, 20-30 million died), peasants died, few knew at the time; + `The Cultural Revolution' (1966-1976, up to a million died), city-folk died, everybody knew at the time; + UN recognizes PRC (mainland China) over ROC (Taiwan) (1971); + Nixon visits China (1972). * Money: pursing `better' via economic reform toward the Western model (wealth, H10). + Deng Xiaoping ('70s and '80s), economic reform, `hide and bide'; + Jiang Zemin ('90s), economic reform, globalization; + Hu Jintao (2000s), economic reform, the Internet; + Economic miracle, Western companies trying to get in and profit, extraction resisted by China; + China's ideas about the top spot: `Unrestricted Warfare' (1999), `The China Dream' and the `100 Year Marathon' (2005, 2009).
__
References
Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Mariner Books. ISBN: 978-1328915382. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328915382 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328915382 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017005351
Ames, R. T. (1993). Sun Tzu: The Art of Warfare. Random House. ISBN: 034536239X. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=034536239X https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+034536239X https://lccn.loc.gov/92052662
Keay, J. (2009). China: A History. HarperCollins. ISBN: 978-0007221783. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780007221783 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780007221783 https://lccn.loc.gov/2009930982
Pillsbury, M. (2015). The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. St. Martin's Griffin. ISBN: 978-1250081346. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781250081346 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781250081346 https://lccn.loc.gov/2014012015
Qiao, L., & Wang, X. (1999). Unrestricted Warfare: China's Master Plan to Destroy America. Echo Point, reprint ed. ISBN: 978-1626543058. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781626543058 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781626543058 https://lccn.loc.gov/2006504536
Retraice (2022/03/07). Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Retrieved 17th Mar. 2022.
World Book, E. (2017). World Book Encyclopedia 2018, 22 Volume Set. World Book, Inc., 2018 ed. ISBN: 978-0716601180. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780716601180 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780716601180 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017034899
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 For China, the history that matters is still the `century of humiliation', Michael Zhou, scmp.com, Sep. 28th, 2021.
^3 Sources covering most of what follows: Keay (2009) pp. 455-460, 464-466, 523-529, 534-535; World Book (2017) vol. 3, pp. 502-507; Pillsbury (2015) pp. 27-30; Qiao & Wang (1999) pp. xvii-xxii; Ames (1993); Allison (2018).