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Re49-NOTES.pdf
(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re49: China is Not F-ing Around
Retraice^1
China Part 3: A sketch of Xi's country.
Air date: Sunday, 13th Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
Something is happening in China
"The China we once knew no longer exists. The China that was with us for forty years--the China of `reform and opening up'--is making way for something new. It's time for us to start paying attention. Something is happening in China that the world has never seen before. A new country and a new regime are being born." -- Kai Strittmatter^2
Our China model
Model of China: The most people with the most history, mostly doing well, except lately (1839-1976), and now making a comeback: 1.4 billion people striving; intense competition in business, love and life; government by a single party; risen in a U.S. world; speaking a different language.
The most relevant hypothesis is:
H4 China: `The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely.'
See Retraice (2022/03/07) for details and citations.
What happened in China (before Xi)?
Drugs, Mao, money; betterment, technology, economics.
China now: the best
The tier-one cities, especially, are remarkable things to behold (via YouTube). A Chinese who wanted to visit the United States once complained that "Every time I visit New York it's the same." Not so Chinese cities. While it is easy to hear about and see `tofu-dreg projects', i.e. shoddy construction and consequent disasters, the tier-one cities do not seem to be affected. o Is it now the #1 economy? Close enough: prosperity. o Belt-and-Road initiative: lower trade friction. o Corruption purge: less corruption (hopefully). o Evergrande crisis: risk-taking, aggressive growth. o TikTok (ByteDance) (also on the Worst list): innovation. o Military buildup (also on the Worst list): a natural consequence of economic success.
China now: the worst
* Military buildup: ominous, threatening behavior. * TikTok (ByteDance): spying, manipulation, coercion.^3 * Organ harvesting: the worst thing.^4 * Uyghurs in Xinjiang: internment camps. * Falun Gong: internment camps. * Surveillance state.^5 Cf. Russell (1952):
"In future [sic] such failures are not likely to occur where there is dictatorship. Diet, injections, and injunctions will combine, from a very early age, to produce the sort of character and the sort of beliefs that the authorities consider desirable, and any serious criticism of the powers that be will become psychologically impossible. Even if all are miserable, all will believe themselves happy, because the government will tell them that they are so." p. 66. Cf. Horesh (2020):
"Meanwhile, a previously unimaginable level of thought control is fast being made accessible for every middle-income autocracy that chooses to use it. Visit the wrong website and your social credit score declines, look up the wrong book and it drops further, mention the wrong phrases on social media and it sinks so low that alarms go off in the camera rooms when your face flashes on the screen. The opportunities this presents for behavioral modification are simply astonishing, as the exploration of every forbidden idea or acquaintance can be made part of a social credit score, whose every drop causes another shock in the hearts of the lowly ranked.... Yet, whether or not China goes so far, they have developed the tools needed to implement a security regime more totalitarian than even that of the East German Stasi, at a fraction of the effort and far lower cost, for any autocrat who chooses to go that far. Russians and Turks, Poles and Hungarians, could soon find themselves entering a vise from which they never escape. For once such a security regime is implemented, resistance can be shut down in ways not previously imagined, while independent thinking is gradually snuffed out." p. 158. * Covid origins and the opacity of the response. * Zero Covid and lockdowns: draconian, cruel. * Hong Kong crackdowns: against freedom and democracy. * Pelosi Visit, Taiwan military exercises: against freedom and democracy.
China now: war
* Constant outward pushing in South China Sea; * Tacit support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine invasion; * What does all this mean for H4, war with the U.S.? + You can't stop humans from hustling; + You can't stop competition between great powers; + You can stop evil;^6 + You can stop catastrophic war.^7
Haunting questions:
* What would a mobilization look like? * Can you stop an Artilect War^8 ? Who will the sides be?
__
References
Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Mariner Books. ISBN: 978-1328915382. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328915382 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328915382 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017005351
Andersen, R. (2020). The panopticon is already here. The Atlantic. Sep. 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/china-ai-surveillance/614197/ Retrieved 8th Nov. 2022.
de Garis, H. (2005). The Artilect War: Cosmists vs. Terrans: A Bitter Controversy Concerning Whether Humanity Should Build Godlike Massively Intelligent Machines. ETC Publications. ISBN: 0882801546. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0882801546 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0882801546
Horesh, T. (2020). The Fascism this Time: and the Global Future of Democracy. Cosmopolis Press, Kindle ed. ISBN: 0578732939. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0578732939 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0578732939
Retraice (2022/03/07). Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Retrieved 17th Mar. 2022.
Russell, B. (1952). The Impact Of Science On Society. George Allen and Unwin Ltd. No ISBN. https://archive.org/details/impactofscienceo0000unse_t0h6 Retrieved 15th, Nov. 2022. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=The+Impact+Of+Science+On+Society+Bertrand+Russell https://www.google.com/search?q=The+Impact+Of+Science+On+Society+Bertrand+Russell https://lccn.loc.gov/52014878
Strittmatter, K. (2018). We Have Been Harmonized: Life in China's Surveillance State. Custom House, revised, updated ed. ISBN: 978-0063027305. Published in Germany, 2018. This paperback edition 2021. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780063027305 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780063027305 https://lccn.loc.gov/2020288922
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Strittmatter (2018) p. 1.
^3 "The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads. That sucks." -- Jeff Hammerbacher. We misattributed this to Andrew Ng during the livestream. The Best Minds of My Generation Are Thinking About How To Make People Click Ads, quoteinvestigator.com, Jun. 12th. 2017.
^4 Forced Organ Harvesting in China: Examining the Evidence, Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, humanrightscommission.house.gov, May 12, 2022; China: UN human rights experts alarmed by `organ harvesting' allegations, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), ohchr.org, Jun. 14th, 2021.
^5 Strittmatter (2018); Andersen (2020); City Brain, wikipedia.org, retrieved Nov. 15th, 2022.
^6 "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." -- variously attributed. The Only Thing Necessary for the Triumph of Evil is that Good Men Do Nothing, quoteinvestigator.com, Dec. 4th, 2010.
^7 Allison (2018).
^8 de Garis (2005).
View all episodes
By Retraice, Inc.(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re49: China is Not F-ing Around
Retraice^1
China Part 3: A sketch of Xi's country.
Air date: Sunday, 13th Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
Something is happening in China
"The China we once knew no longer exists. The China that was with us for forty years--the China of `reform and opening up'--is making way for something new. It's time for us to start paying attention. Something is happening in China that the world has never seen before. A new country and a new regime are being born." -- Kai Strittmatter^2
Our China model
Model of China: The most people with the most history, mostly doing well, except lately (1839-1976), and now making a comeback: 1.4 billion people striving; intense competition in business, love and life; government by a single party; risen in a U.S. world; speaking a different language.
The most relevant hypothesis is:
H4 China: `The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely.'
See Retraice (2022/03/07) for details and citations.
What happened in China (before Xi)?
Drugs, Mao, money; betterment, technology, economics.
China now: the best
The tier-one cities, especially, are remarkable things to behold (via YouTube). A Chinese who wanted to visit the United States once complained that "Every time I visit New York it's the same." Not so Chinese cities. While it is easy to hear about and see `tofu-dreg projects', i.e. shoddy construction and consequent disasters, the tier-one cities do not seem to be affected. o Is it now the #1 economy? Close enough: prosperity. o Belt-and-Road initiative: lower trade friction. o Corruption purge: less corruption (hopefully). o Evergrande crisis: risk-taking, aggressive growth. o TikTok (ByteDance) (also on the Worst list): innovation. o Military buildup (also on the Worst list): a natural consequence of economic success.
China now: the worst
* Military buildup: ominous, threatening behavior. * TikTok (ByteDance): spying, manipulation, coercion.^3 * Organ harvesting: the worst thing.^4 * Uyghurs in Xinjiang: internment camps. * Falun Gong: internment camps. * Surveillance state.^5 Cf. Russell (1952):
"In future [sic] such failures are not likely to occur where there is dictatorship. Diet, injections, and injunctions will combine, from a very early age, to produce the sort of character and the sort of beliefs that the authorities consider desirable, and any serious criticism of the powers that be will become psychologically impossible. Even if all are miserable, all will believe themselves happy, because the government will tell them that they are so." p. 66. Cf. Horesh (2020):
"Meanwhile, a previously unimaginable level of thought control is fast being made accessible for every middle-income autocracy that chooses to use it. Visit the wrong website and your social credit score declines, look up the wrong book and it drops further, mention the wrong phrases on social media and it sinks so low that alarms go off in the camera rooms when your face flashes on the screen. The opportunities this presents for behavioral modification are simply astonishing, as the exploration of every forbidden idea or acquaintance can be made part of a social credit score, whose every drop causes another shock in the hearts of the lowly ranked.... Yet, whether or not China goes so far, they have developed the tools needed to implement a security regime more totalitarian than even that of the East German Stasi, at a fraction of the effort and far lower cost, for any autocrat who chooses to go that far. Russians and Turks, Poles and Hungarians, could soon find themselves entering a vise from which they never escape. For once such a security regime is implemented, resistance can be shut down in ways not previously imagined, while independent thinking is gradually snuffed out." p. 158. * Covid origins and the opacity of the response. * Zero Covid and lockdowns: draconian, cruel. * Hong Kong crackdowns: against freedom and democracy. * Pelosi Visit, Taiwan military exercises: against freedom and democracy.
China now: war
* Constant outward pushing in South China Sea; * Tacit support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine invasion; * What does all this mean for H4, war with the U.S.? + You can't stop humans from hustling; + You can't stop competition between great powers; + You can stop evil;^6 + You can stop catastrophic war.^7
Haunting questions:
* What would a mobilization look like? * Can you stop an Artilect War^8 ? Who will the sides be?
__
References
Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Mariner Books. ISBN: 978-1328915382. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328915382 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328915382 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017005351
Andersen, R. (2020). The panopticon is already here. The Atlantic. Sep. 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/china-ai-surveillance/614197/ Retrieved 8th Nov. 2022.
de Garis, H. (2005). The Artilect War: Cosmists vs. Terrans: A Bitter Controversy Concerning Whether Humanity Should Build Godlike Massively Intelligent Machines. ETC Publications. ISBN: 0882801546. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0882801546 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0882801546
Horesh, T. (2020). The Fascism this Time: and the Global Future of Democracy. Cosmopolis Press, Kindle ed. ISBN: 0578732939. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0578732939 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0578732939
Retraice (2022/03/07). Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Retrieved 17th Mar. 2022.
Russell, B. (1952). The Impact Of Science On Society. George Allen and Unwin Ltd. No ISBN. https://archive.org/details/impactofscienceo0000unse_t0h6 Retrieved 15th, Nov. 2022. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=The+Impact+Of+Science+On+Society+Bertrand+Russell https://www.google.com/search?q=The+Impact+Of+Science+On+Society+Bertrand+Russell https://lccn.loc.gov/52014878
Strittmatter, K. (2018). We Have Been Harmonized: Life in China's Surveillance State. Custom House, revised, updated ed. ISBN: 978-0063027305. Published in Germany, 2018. This paperback edition 2021. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780063027305 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780063027305 https://lccn.loc.gov/2020288922
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Strittmatter (2018) p. 1.
^3 "The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads. That sucks." -- Jeff Hammerbacher. We misattributed this to Andrew Ng during the livestream. The Best Minds of My Generation Are Thinking About How To Make People Click Ads, quoteinvestigator.com, Jun. 12th. 2017.
^4 Forced Organ Harvesting in China: Examining the Evidence, Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, humanrightscommission.house.gov, May 12, 2022; China: UN human rights experts alarmed by `organ harvesting' allegations, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), ohchr.org, Jun. 14th, 2021.
^5 Strittmatter (2018); Andersen (2020); City Brain, wikipedia.org, retrieved Nov. 15th, 2022.
^6 "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." -- variously attributed. The Only Thing Necessary for the Triumph of Evil is that Good Men Do Nothing, quoteinvestigator.com, Dec. 4th, 2010.
^7 Allison (2018).
^8 de Garis (2005).