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Re53-NOTES.pdf
(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re53: Big Questions About Strategic Intelligence
Retraice^1
WAAIT Part 4: What outsiders living in a world of intelligence can ask themselves.
Air date: Thursday, 17th Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
What can't we see?
We're living in a world affected by intelligence organizations, which are known to have kept very big secrets in the past. Our world might even be largely shaped by them. And now AI, perhaps the most powerful technology, is in the picture.
It's easy to remember that we live in nature's world, and in a world of many accidents--and a world of contingency.^2 It is harder to remember that we live in a world affected by intelligence organizations.
Examples of secrets kept (for a long time): o NSA;^3 o Church Committee revelations;^4 o Manhattan project;^5 o Area 51;^6 o The Rhodes-Milner group.^7
Observation selection effects: Biases in our judgments based on flawed gathering of sample data, i.e. flawed methods of observation, i.e. flawed assumptions about the world. What if some fish have evolved to escape our net?^8 What if our net was never designed with them in mind?^9
What about cumulative progress?
* adaptation begets adaptation; * leverage begets leverage; * money begets money; * power begets power; * control begets control;^10
Hence the seductive logic of a `breakaway civilization'--seductive and perilous to the reputation.^11
What about superpowers and secrecy?
Electricity and nuclear power (and weapons) are superpowers, though we're used to their presence. Now there is AI in the environment. Will we get used to it? Will something else happen? * DeepMind, OpenAI and others are publishing powerful new knowledge and tools. * Who's in a position to take action? Who has the time, money, knowledge, intent, `means, motive and opportunity'?^12 * Something can be `not secret' can still be `effectively unknown', i.e. `hidden in plain sight'.
On mental math (Re52 correction)
During Re52^13 I said that my interest in technical AI had begun in late 2011, 13 years ago. Correction: 11 years ago. My consolation:
"In the little evidence we have of his youthful characteristics there are no signs of any pronounced facility in computation, and indeed if he ever was an infant prodigy his later life reveals clearly that his arithmetical gifts soon degenerated to the level of no more than average competence.... The mistakes which occur in his lengthy calculations of hyperbola areas are damning evidence against the myth of Newton's prodigious facility in numerical calculation. Lengthy calculations appear frequently in his later scientific papers and not infrequently they too contain small numerical errors."^14
__
References
Andrew, C. (2018). The Secret World: A History of Intelligence. Yale University Press. ISBN in paperback edition printed as "978-0-300-23844-0 (hardcover : alk. paper)". Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0300238440 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0300238440 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018947154
Bamford, J. (1982). The Puzzle Palace: A Report on America's Most Secret Agency. Penguin. ISBN: 0140067485. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0140067485 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0140067485 https://lccn.loc.gov/82024608
Bostrom, N. (2002). Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. Routledge. ISBN: 0415938589. https://anthropic-principle.com/q=book/table_of_contents/ Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0415938589 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0415938589 https://lccn.loc.gov/2001058887
Brockman, J. (Ed.) (2019). Possible Minds: Twenty-Five Ways of Looking at AI. Penguin. ISBN: 978-0525557999. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0525557999 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0525557999 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018032888
Dolan, R. M. (2000). UFOs and the National Security State Vol. 1: An Unclassified History. Keyhole, 1st ed. ISBN: 0967799503. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0967799503 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0967799503 https://lccn.loc.gov/00691087
Dolan, R. M. (2014). UFOs for the 21st Century Mind: A Fresh Guide to an Ancient Mystery. Richard Dolan Press. ISBN: 978-1495291609. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781495291609 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781495291609
Eddington, S. A. (1938). The Philosophy Of Physical Science. Cambridge. No ISBN. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.425432 Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Philosophy+Of+Physical+Science+Arthur+Eddington https://www.google.com/search?q=Philosophy+Of+Physical+Science+Arthur+Eddington https://lccn.loc.gov/40000644
Hersh, S. M. (2018). Reporter: A Memoir. Vintage / Penguin Random House. ISBN: 978-0307276612. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0307276612 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0307276612 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017051856
Jacobsen, A. (2011). Area 51: An Uncensored History of America's Top Secret Military Base. Back Bay Books. ISBN: 978-0316202305. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780316202305 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780316202305 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011925205
Newton, I. (2008). The Mathematical Papers of Isaac Newton: Volume 1. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0521045957. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780521045957 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780521045957 https://lccn.loc.gov/65011203
Okasha, S. (2002). Philosophy of Science: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 0192802836. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0192802836 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0192802836 https://lccn.loc.gov/2002510456
Quigley, C. (1961). The Evolution of Civilizations. Macmillan (reprinted by Liberty Fund 1979). ISBN: 0913966576. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0913966576 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0913966576 https://lccn.loc.gov/79004091
Retraice (2020/09/07). Re1: Three Kinds of Intelligence. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re1 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.
Retraice (2020/09/08). Re2: Tell the People, Tell Foes. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re2 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.
Retraice (2022/10/28). Re33: Outsiders, Power and Waste. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re33 Retrieved 2nd Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/02). Re38: Follow up to `Re33: Outsiders, Power and Waste'. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re38 Retrieved 5th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/16). Re52: Big Questions About AI. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re52 Retrieved 17th Nov. 2022.
Wiener, N. (1954). The Human Use Of Human Beings: Cybernetics and Society. Da Capo, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-0306803208. This 1954 ed. missing `The Voices of Rigidity' chapter of the original 1950 ed. See 1st ed.: https://archive.org/details/humanuseofhumanb00wien/page/n11/mode/2up. See also Brockman (2019) p. xviii. Searches for the 2nd ed.: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780306803208 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780306803208 https://lccn.loc.gov/87037102
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Wiener (1954) p. 12: "[C]onsider not one world, but all the worlds which are possible answers to a limited set of questions concerning our environment."
^3 Bamford (1982) p. 16.
^4 Andrew (2018) pp. 687-689, including the generally unknown roll of the KGB opposite the well know actions of the CIA. On the contingency of history (a filing error) that saved some of the MKUltra documentary evidence from destruction in a CIA cover-up, see: Hersh (2018) pp. 210-211 on Helm's document destruction; Dolan (2000) p. 472 on Sidney Gottlieb's failure to destroy all the documents; and MKUltra, wikipedia.org (retrieved Nov. 18th, 2022) on the filing error that saved what documents did survive.
^5 Jacobsen (2011) p. xvi-xix
^6 Jacobsen (2011) p. 5.
^7 See Retraice (2022/10/28) and Retraice (2022/11/02) for details.
^8 Bostrom (2002) pp. 1-2, citing Eddington (1938) p. 16.
^9 See also Retraice (2020/09/07) on Vallee's `Major Murphy'. See Okasha (2002) p. 24 on assuming the `uniformity of nature' (I said `constancy of nature' during the livestream).
^10 See Retraice (2020/09/08) on Weizenbaum and "The test of absolute power is certain and absolute control."
^11 Dolan (2014) pp. 204-210. On what it takes to be a civilization, see Quigley (1961) pp. 132-153.
^12 See Retraice (2020/09/07) on Ferguson on the Rothschilds' communications network.
^13 Retraice (2022/11/16).
^14 Newton (2008) pp. 3-4.
View all episodes
By Retraice, Inc.(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)
Re53: Big Questions About Strategic Intelligence
Retraice^1
WAAIT Part 4: What outsiders living in a world of intelligence can ask themselves.
Air date: Thursday, 17th Nov. 2022, 11:00 PM Eastern/US.
What can't we see?
We're living in a world affected by intelligence organizations, which are known to have kept very big secrets in the past. Our world might even be largely shaped by them. And now AI, perhaps the most powerful technology, is in the picture.
It's easy to remember that we live in nature's world, and in a world of many accidents--and a world of contingency.^2 It is harder to remember that we live in a world affected by intelligence organizations.
Examples of secrets kept (for a long time): o NSA;^3 o Church Committee revelations;^4 o Manhattan project;^5 o Area 51;^6 o The Rhodes-Milner group.^7
Observation selection effects: Biases in our judgments based on flawed gathering of sample data, i.e. flawed methods of observation, i.e. flawed assumptions about the world. What if some fish have evolved to escape our net?^8 What if our net was never designed with them in mind?^9
What about cumulative progress?
* adaptation begets adaptation; * leverage begets leverage; * money begets money; * power begets power; * control begets control;^10
Hence the seductive logic of a `breakaway civilization'--seductive and perilous to the reputation.^11
What about superpowers and secrecy?
Electricity and nuclear power (and weapons) are superpowers, though we're used to their presence. Now there is AI in the environment. Will we get used to it? Will something else happen? * DeepMind, OpenAI and others are publishing powerful new knowledge and tools. * Who's in a position to take action? Who has the time, money, knowledge, intent, `means, motive and opportunity'?^12 * Something can be `not secret' can still be `effectively unknown', i.e. `hidden in plain sight'.
On mental math (Re52 correction)
During Re52^13 I said that my interest in technical AI had begun in late 2011, 13 years ago. Correction: 11 years ago. My consolation:
"In the little evidence we have of his youthful characteristics there are no signs of any pronounced facility in computation, and indeed if he ever was an infant prodigy his later life reveals clearly that his arithmetical gifts soon degenerated to the level of no more than average competence.... The mistakes which occur in his lengthy calculations of hyperbola areas are damning evidence against the myth of Newton's prodigious facility in numerical calculation. Lengthy calculations appear frequently in his later scientific papers and not infrequently they too contain small numerical errors."^14
__
References
Andrew, C. (2018). The Secret World: A History of Intelligence. Yale University Press. ISBN in paperback edition printed as "978-0-300-23844-0 (hardcover : alk. paper)". Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0300238440 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0300238440 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018947154
Bamford, J. (1982). The Puzzle Palace: A Report on America's Most Secret Agency. Penguin. ISBN: 0140067485. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0140067485 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0140067485 https://lccn.loc.gov/82024608
Bostrom, N. (2002). Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. Routledge. ISBN: 0415938589. https://anthropic-principle.com/q=book/table_of_contents/ Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0415938589 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0415938589 https://lccn.loc.gov/2001058887
Brockman, J. (Ed.) (2019). Possible Minds: Twenty-Five Ways of Looking at AI. Penguin. ISBN: 978-0525557999. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0525557999 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0525557999 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018032888
Dolan, R. M. (2000). UFOs and the National Security State Vol. 1: An Unclassified History. Keyhole, 1st ed. ISBN: 0967799503. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0967799503 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0967799503 https://lccn.loc.gov/00691087
Dolan, R. M. (2014). UFOs for the 21st Century Mind: A Fresh Guide to an Ancient Mystery. Richard Dolan Press. ISBN: 978-1495291609. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781495291609 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781495291609
Eddington, S. A. (1938). The Philosophy Of Physical Science. Cambridge. No ISBN. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.425432 Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Philosophy+Of+Physical+Science+Arthur+Eddington https://www.google.com/search?q=Philosophy+Of+Physical+Science+Arthur+Eddington https://lccn.loc.gov/40000644
Hersh, S. M. (2018). Reporter: A Memoir. Vintage / Penguin Random House. ISBN: 978-0307276612. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0307276612 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0307276612 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017051856
Jacobsen, A. (2011). Area 51: An Uncensored History of America's Top Secret Military Base. Back Bay Books. ISBN: 978-0316202305. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780316202305 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780316202305 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011925205
Newton, I. (2008). The Mathematical Papers of Isaac Newton: Volume 1. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0521045957. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780521045957 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780521045957 https://lccn.loc.gov/65011203
Okasha, S. (2002). Philosophy of Science: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 0192802836. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0192802836 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0192802836 https://lccn.loc.gov/2002510456
Quigley, C. (1961). The Evolution of Civilizations. Macmillan (reprinted by Liberty Fund 1979). ISBN: 0913966576. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0913966576 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0913966576 https://lccn.loc.gov/79004091
Retraice (2020/09/07). Re1: Three Kinds of Intelligence. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re1 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.
Retraice (2020/09/08). Re2: Tell the People, Tell Foes. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re2 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.
Retraice (2022/10/28). Re33: Outsiders, Power and Waste. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re33 Retrieved 2nd Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/02). Re38: Follow up to `Re33: Outsiders, Power and Waste'. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re38 Retrieved 5th Nov. 2022.
Retraice (2022/11/16). Re52: Big Questions About AI. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re52 Retrieved 17th Nov. 2022.
Wiener, N. (1954). The Human Use Of Human Beings: Cybernetics and Society. Da Capo, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-0306803208. This 1954 ed. missing `The Voices of Rigidity' chapter of the original 1950 ed. See 1st ed.: https://archive.org/details/humanuseofhumanb00wien/page/n11/mode/2up. See also Brockman (2019) p. xviii. Searches for the 2nd ed.: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780306803208 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780306803208 https://lccn.loc.gov/87037102
Footnotes
^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice
^2 Wiener (1954) p. 12: "[C]onsider not one world, but all the worlds which are possible answers to a limited set of questions concerning our environment."
^3 Bamford (1982) p. 16.
^4 Andrew (2018) pp. 687-689, including the generally unknown roll of the KGB opposite the well know actions of the CIA. On the contingency of history (a filing error) that saved some of the MKUltra documentary evidence from destruction in a CIA cover-up, see: Hersh (2018) pp. 210-211 on Helm's document destruction; Dolan (2000) p. 472 on Sidney Gottlieb's failure to destroy all the documents; and MKUltra, wikipedia.org (retrieved Nov. 18th, 2022) on the filing error that saved what documents did survive.
^5 Jacobsen (2011) p. xvi-xix
^6 Jacobsen (2011) p. 5.
^7 See Retraice (2022/10/28) and Retraice (2022/11/02) for details.
^8 Bostrom (2002) pp. 1-2, citing Eddington (1938) p. 16.
^9 See also Retraice (2020/09/07) on Vallee's `Major Murphy'. See Okasha (2002) p. 24 on assuming the `uniformity of nature' (I said `constancy of nature' during the livestream).
^10 See Retraice (2020/09/08) on Weizenbaum and "The test of absolute power is certain and absolute control."
^11 Dolan (2014) pp. 204-210. On what it takes to be a civilization, see Quigley (1961) pp. 132-153.
^12 See Retraice (2020/09/07) on Ferguson on the Rothschilds' communications network.
^13 Retraice (2022/11/16).
^14 Newton (2008) pp. 3-4.