Wednesday's essential intelligence for institutional capital navigating the $500B+ rare earth elements market. **Market Surge Analysis:** - NdPr oxide climbs 40% since July to $88/kg - two-year highs validate domestic production thesis - Terbium metal at $1,983/kg (+42% YTD) - heavy rare earth momentum accelerating - Dysprosium at $454/kg (+28.5% YTD) - institutional-scale price action driven by supply reconfiguration **Geopolitical Intelligence:** - China's August 22 quota expansion to imported raw materials - Beijing consolidating total supply chain control - 93.3% collapse in rare earth magnet exports to US - supply chain war metrics that matter - MP Materials halts China shipments, DoD partnership driving two-year price highs **Capital Formation Surge:** - $4.7 billion deployed across 23 rare earth projects in 2024-2025 - DOE announces nearly $1B critical minerals funding with $135M for REE demonstration facility - Lynas completes A$750M placement, launches "Towards 2030" strategy **Pentagon Contract Intelligence:** - Vulcan Elements secures $10M+ across all military branches - Metallium awarded Phase 1 SBIR for gallium recovery technology - DoD's "mine-to-magnet" strategy reshaping sector economics **Investment Thesis:** Heavy rare earths potentially decoupling from Chinese benchmarks. Dysprosium projected to hit $1,100/kg by 2034 as defense spending and EV demand create structural supply deficits. Essential listening for institutional investors, project sponsors, and capital allocators capable of $50M-$500M deployments in rare earth elements and critical minerals. Your competitive edge in the world's most critical elements.