Can we use evidence from the social epidemiology carried out in previous times to help us predict the likely effect of the present recession on public health? Mortality in unemployed men in the 1970s and 80s was around 30% higher than average. However, the 1980s saw a rapid increase in life expectancy in the population as a whole. Professor Bartley argues that we can now use evidence from longitudinal studies to understand the complex impact of recession on public health.