What does it look like when a recession is already baked in — but most investors haven't noticed yet? In this episode, Litan Yahav sits down with Jeremy Roll, a seasoned real estate and alternative asset investor managing 60+ LLCs, to dig into the macro signals that have him hoarding cash, avoiding private credit, and waiting for one final downturn before deploying capital aggressively into real estate.

They cover recession timing, why private credit funds can fail even when assets perform, the hidden CapEx pause that will slow AI adoption, and the specific metrics Jeremy uses to evaluate real estate deals in a high-rate environment.

Highlights:

• Why PE ratios at the 97th-99th percentile historically precede 30-40%+ market corrections — and why this time isn't different

• The "fire door" problem in private credit: how redemption waves can force solvent funds into distressed liquidations with no warning

• Oil prices as the #1 historical cause of US recessions — and why the current geopolitical setup has Jeremy watching it multiple times a day

• Mobile home parks vs. multifamily: why a 9-year average tenant tenure (vs. 50% annual turnover in apartments) fundamentally changes risk math

• The 1,000-day Bitcoin cycle and how Jeremy is positioning around it with puts rather than outright shorts

Jeremy Roll is a full-time real estate and alternative asset investor based in the US, managing capital across 60+ LLCs spanning multifamily, mobile home parks, senior housing, and more. No guest contact information was shared during this call.

Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7F0JHBoB5SWvAi12WNmR2e

Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/vyzer-weekly/id1859061480

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVH9Pz5-HyDBtJSrgG6tbZhhdX1v-6G6E

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