The restaurant and bar industry continues to face challenges in 2025, with recent data highlighting ongoing concerns around inflation, labor shortages, and shifting consumer behaviors. According to the National Restaurant Association's latest report released yesterday, 61% of operators reported declining customer traffic in the past year, while nearly 40% of restaurants were unprofitable in 2024. Rising costs remain a major issue, with food costs and wages both up over 30% compared to 2019 levels.
Despite these headwinds, there are some signs of cautious optimism. The James Beard Foundation's 2025 Independent Restaurant Industry Report, published earlier this week, found that business performance showed encouraging improvement in some areas last year. However, independent restaurants still face mounting pressure on multiple fronts, including persistent inflation and impacts from extreme weather events.
Supply chain disruptions continue to pose challenges for the industry. A report from Supply Chain Dive noted that geopolitical tensions and severe weather are creating uncertainty around food supplies in 2025. Specific shortages in eggs and cocoa were highlighted as ongoing concerns that could impact menu offerings and pricing.
In response to these challenges, many restaurant chains are adapting their strategies. McDonald's announced yesterday the creation of a new "restaurant experience" team focused on menu innovation, particularly around chicken, beef, and beverage/dessert offerings. Meanwhile, Domino's promoted a long-time executive to COO and US president as part of a larger organizational restructuring aimed at improving operations.
Technology adoption remains a key focus for many operators looking to enhance efficiency and customer experience. PAR Technology has been actively acquiring software firms to build out its enterprise restaurant tech systems, targeting major chain clients.
On the regulatory front, the industry is closely watching potential changes to tariff policies. President Trump has threatened to levy new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which experts warn could significantly impact food and beverage supplies. The National Restaurant Association expressed concern about how such moves could further strain already thin profit margins.
Looking ahead, the Association projects industry-wide sales to reach $1.5 trillion in 2025, with the addition of over 200,000 new jobs. However, competition for consumer dollars is expected to intensify, with 48% of operators anticipating a tougher battle compared to last year.
As the industry navigates these complex market conditions, innovation in menu offerings, technology integration, and operational efficiency will likely be key differentiators for success in the coming months.