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Ed and Paul dive deep into OpenAI’s massive long-term compute commitments and what it means for the company’s economics, competitive positioning, and the broader AI arms race. They break down the tension between explosive revenue growth and unprecedented spending, the venture-logic behind “land-grab” behavior, and the risks these commitments pose to both vendors and competitors.
In the second half, the conversation turns to Microsoft Teams, the EU’s antitrust ruling, and the messy realities of bundling, competition, and predatory pricing — all served with classic Results Junkies candor, startup-operator logic, and more than a few cheeseburger metaphors.
Topics & Timestamps
00:05 – Opening banter & travel logistics Ed and Paul compare time zones, Vegas scenery, and the eternal quest for a cheeseburger.
01:04 – Housekeeping Where to find Ed and Paul online; quick reminders for Results Junkies listeners.
01:20 – OpenAI’s staggering compute spend Discussing the article outlining OpenAI’s commitment to tens of billions in annual compute spending — and why the math seems wild compared to current revenue.
03:20 – Revenue vs. spend: does the model scale? How OpenAI reportedly moved from $1.7B to $12B annualized revenue in ~18 months — and whether that trajectory justifies a $60B/year commitment.
04:40 – Venture-style land-grab logic Why this looks like a classic “spend now, dominate later” strategy — just at an unprecedented scale.
06:00 – What happens if OpenAI misses the commitment? Exploring the vendor-risk problem: what does a partner do when they’re left $10–20B short?
07:27 – Founders vs. investors: who’s really risking what? Why downside risk isn’t shared equally — especially when founders have little capital invested.
08:04 – Barriers to competition increase dramatically The larger these commitments get, the harder it becomes for smaller AI startups to realistically compete.
08:35 – Capacity lock-up strategies Why monopolizing vendor resources may be a conscious competitive tactic.
09:17 – Transition to Microsoft Teams & Slack’s EU complaint Ed outlines the EU’s ruling requiring Microsoft to unbundle Teams and adjust pricing.
10:58 – Is this really a European-only issue? A look at how bundling plays out in the US market as well.
11:36 – The role of precedent Can EU regulatory pressure spill into US practice?
12:22 – Government-mandated pricing: tricky territory Paul reacts to the idea of regulators dictating price gaps — and why it feels risky through a startup-operator lens.
14:01 – Is Teams effectively a “free burger”? Ed argues that bundling Teams at near-zero cost resembles predatory pricing designed to box out Slack.
15:49 – Revisiting antitrust basics Where’s the line between aggressive competition and anti-competitive behavior?
17:33 – Airline analogy: when incumbents crush challengers Ed recounts how United Airlines once priced a regional competitor out of existence — and why the dynamic resembles the Microsoft–Slack situation.
18:59 – Could giants always “out-capacity” challengers? Why big players can add supply and out-discount smaller competitors indefinitely.
20:01 – Independence Air and the Dulles example A real-world case study in predatory pricing and market power.
22:12 – The free-market debate A nuanced discussion on where regulators should intervene.
23:01 – US vs. Microsoft (2000s) Why the landmark browser-bundling case still matters today.
25:17 – How defaults create de-facto monopolies Browsers then; team-collaboration suites now.
27:01 – Why Teams frustrates so many users Ed’s legendary rant: stability issues, UX complaints, and cross-platform challenges.
28:29 – The cheeseburger episode idea A running joke about turning Results Junkies into a Bourdain-style food-and-business hybrid.
28:48 – More Vegas talk & logistics Travel schedule, long hotel stays, and construction-trip life.
30:07 – How Vegas won over Dana Why today’s Vegas is more dining and convenience than chaos.
30:30 – Cheeseburger Day, store openings & invites Future events, potential travel, and family logistics.
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If you've got a comment or question for the show, you can e-mail us at [email protected]. You can find Paul and Ed online @paulsingh and @pizzainmotion.
