Today's episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast covers the biggest Russia developments from December 29, 2025—and it's one of those days where diplomacy looks promising in headlines while the Kremlin is busy loading the fine print with landmines.

The centerpiece is the Trump–Zelensky meeting at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, where the two leaders worked through a revised 20-point peace plan aimed at ending Russia's war in Ukraine. President Trump told reporters a deal is "maybe very close," but also warned it might not happen and said the next few weeks will determine whether this becomes a real agreement or another stalled draft. Zelensky called it a "great meeting" and said the joint U.S.–Ukraine proposal is nearly complete, emphasizing that security guarantees must be strong enough to prevent a repeat of 2022.

A major update from the New York Times reporting: Trump said he spoke with Vladimir Putin for more than two hours before meeting Zelensky—and claimed Putin wants a deal, adding: "I believe him." That's not a throwaway line; it's Trump personally vouching for Putin's stated intent, even as Russia continues rejecting several Western-backed concepts. European leaders stayed plugged in, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen describing an hourlong call with Trump and Zelensky and saying Europe welcomes progress but insists on ironclad security guarantees from day one.

And here's the friction point: Russia is still swatting down key elements. Moscow rejected the idea of European peacekeepers in Ukraine, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went further—calling any such troops "legitimate targets" and accusing Europe of being the main obstacle to peace. Meanwhile, the hardest issues remain unresolved: territory in Donetsk/Donbas and the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP)—Europe's largest, seized by Russia in 2022. Trump suggested Putin is interested in working with Ukraine to get the plant operating, but Ukraine has repeatedly rejected joint operation under Russian occupation. Adding to the day's significance, the IAEA said it brokered a local multi-day ceasefire so crews can restore key power transmission links near the ZNPP complex—an operational reminder that nuclear infrastructure is still a live risk factor, not just a bargaining chip.

On the battlefield-information front, ISW assessed Russia is escalating an influence campaign using more sophisticated flag-raising montage videos to exaggerate "seizures" like Myrnohrad and Hulyaipole, while open-source evidence indicates contested control and infiltration-style activity rather than clean takeovers. At the same time, Russia continued drone strikes affecting Ukrainian energy systems, and Ukraine hit back with reported strikes on the Syzran oil refinery, an alleged Shahed drone depot in Makiivka, and reported hits on Russian special-operations and naval-drone infrastructure in occupied territory.

We also break down a key Baltic signal: Estonia's foreign intelligence chief says Russia is not currently preparing to attack NATO, but urges calling sabotage and cyberattacks by their real names—not softening them as "hybrid." And we close on Russia's internal tightening: a new law enabling Moscow to ignore certain foreign and international criminal court rulings, plus a court move dismissing a WhatsApp/Telegram class-action challenge to Roskomnadzor restrictions—underscoring the Kremlin's continued push to control both accountability abroad and communications at home.

If you're tracking Russia, Ukraine peace talks, Trump, Zelensky, Putin, Donbas, Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, European peacekeepers, IAEA ceasefire, Russian information operations, drone strikes, and refinery attacks.

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