Dan and Sean kick off 2026 with a look back at their 2025 predictions—what hit, what missed, and what's carrying over into the new year. From government shutdowns to Big Tech dominance to the DEI pendulum swing, they grade their calls before diving into what's ahead.

The big theme for 2026? Geopolitics. With power shifting in Venezuela, potential regime change in Iran, and Trump making noise about Cuba, the hosts break down their "cold Fourth Turning" thesis—consequential global realignment without World War-scale conflict.

On AI, they push back on the "hype bubble bursting" narrative with real examples of transformative use (including Dan having Claude work on projects while he slept). They also dig into economic policy critique, the resilience of the American economy despite central planning missteps, and why they're cautiously bullish on 2026.

Key Topics:

• 2025 predictions scorecard
• Geopolitics as the defining story of 2026
• Taiwan's slow-motion transition (the Hong Kong playbook)
• AI: public perception vs. actual capability
• Aggregation theory and ecosystem opportunities
• Economic outlook: muddling through despite bad policy

Links & References:

• Ben Thompson's Aggregation Theory: stratechery.com
• The Road to Serfdom by Friedrich Hayek (and the 1940s cartoon adaptation)
• The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe
• JOLTS Data: Bureau of Labor Statistic