Commander's Intent

Risk Is Not Certainty: How Leaders Decide What’s Worth It


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In this episode, Derek Oaks sits down with retired Air Force General Jim Slife to answer a critical leadership question: Who actually owns risk? 

From young pilots who believe they’re bulletproof to senior leaders managing global operations, this episode explores how understanding risk evolves with responsibility. General Slife shares powerful lessons from his 35-year career, including the lasting impact of Operation Gothic Serpent—better known as the Battle of Mogadishu—and introduces what he calls the Mogadishu Test: 

If this goes wrong tomorrow, would we still believe it was worth doing today?

Key themes include:

  • Why risk must be owned at the right level
  • The difference between high risk and unnecessary risk
  • How leaders balance requirements, resources, and risk
  • Why culture determines how risk is actually managed
  • The importance of clear intent and decentralized execution
  • How risk changes over time—and why timing matters

This episode isn’t about avoiding risk. It’s about understanding it, communicating it, and making disciplined decisions that align with mission, purpose, and long-term outcomes.
 
If you lead people, manage resources, or make high-stakes decisions—this conversation will change how you think about risk forever.

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Commander's IntentBy Derek Oaks