Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group’s explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime.

TRENDS

• The Polls Are Wrong—Here’s Why
• There IS a Shy Trump Voter 
• Correcting for Social Desirability Bias
• Nate Silver and the $10,000 Challenge

TRADES (8)

• Swinging in FL, NC, PA & WI
• GA & MI Senate Seats
• ECMoV
• Third-Party Smarty

THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT

• Hint: Three Coins in the Mountains

Follow Robert Cahaly on Twitter @RobertCahaly and check out @Trafalgar_Group at thetrafalgargroup.org

 

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