Robert Kaplan is a bestselling author and geopolitical analyst, known for works like The Revenge of Geography. A longtime foreign affairs correspondent for The Atlantic, he has also advised the Pentagon and served as a leading voice in strategic analysis for decades.

In this episode, Kaplan explains how geography and human behavior together shape global conflict—from the Strait of Hormuz to Taiwan. He argues that while geography sets the stage, it is ultimately leaders, decisions, and historical memory that determine how events unfold.

The conversation explores the risks of a future U.S.-China conflict, why a war in the Pacific could be far more catastrophic than conflicts in the Middle East, and what a realistic outcome in Ukraine might look like. Kaplan also examines the weakening of NATO, the long-term instability facing Russia, and the dangers of what he calls “middle-sized wars”—conflicts that are large enough to be destructive but too small to fully capture public attention.

Drawing on lessons from Iraq and decades of geopolitical analysis, Kaplan offers a sobering warning: policymakers must think beyond immediate action and ask the critical question—“what happens next?”

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