Rolling Trades with RJO Futures

Senior Market Strategist John Caruso examines the key economic forces shaping markets in early 2026. In this episode, he analyzes moderating GDP growth, stabilizing but vulnerable inflation, and emerging weakness in the labor market. Caruso also explores the impact of surging oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and what these dynamics could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move. With stagflation risks rising and recession probabilities climbing, the discussion breaks down how growth, inflation, labor data, and energy markets are converging to influence policy decisions and market outlook

In this episode, Market Strategist Lane Dungan walks through what’s driving today’s grain markets, including how the Iran conflict is shaping trade sentiment. He also covers the latest developments in South American and U.S. export flows and what they could mean for your marketing decisions.

Senior Market Strategist Bill Dixon analyzes how markets may react to the upcoming US Iran talks in Geneva, breaking down potential scenarios for equities, crude oil, and precious metals.

He examines the impact of a surprise 16 million barrel crude build, seasonal energy patterns, and geopolitical risk premiums currently capping stock performance.

Bill also reviews gold’s technical structure, the dollar’s strength near resistance, and shifting expectations around July rate cuts.

Finally, he connects recent tariff commentary and energy policy themes to broader commodity demand, offering a framework for navigating headline driven volatility in the weeks ahead. 

Market Strategist Lane Dungan delivers a comprehensive overview of the weekly grain outlook, highlighting key fundamental indicators such as export inspections and EIA ethanol production data, along with insights from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum.

He evaluates where the markets currently stand and what shifting fundamentals may signal for the weeks ahead. Lane also breaks down the technical landscape—examining open interest, price action, and chart structure—to help clarify market momentum and identify potential opportunities in today’s trading environment.

Market Strategist Lane Dungan delivers an in-depth breakdown of the February WASDE report, along with a detailed outlook for corn, soybean, and wheat futures. He reviews where the markets stand today and what to expect in the months ahead. Lane also explains the drivers behind the recent soybean rally and shares practical strategies for preparing for similar market-moving events, including how to implement effective risk management.

Senior Market Strategist Eli Tesfaye breaks down the Morning Commodity Insight newsletter, a daily market report designed to bring clarity and structure to trading across 39 markets and nine sectors.

Eli explains how the Trend Probability Index identifies bullish, bearish, and neutral conditions using a single systematic methodology, along with defined entry points, stop levels, and validation markers to support disciplined decision making. The conversation also covers managing trade conviction, using both full size and micro contracts, and staying mindful of major market events.

This episode highlights how a data driven, structured approach can help traders move beyond gut based decisions and build consistency, risk control, and long term confidence.

Market Strategist Lane Dungan delivers a detailed breakdown of current grain market technicals, explaining where the market stands now and how he expects it to move in the coming days and weeks. He reinforces his technical outlook with real‑world fundamental insights that frame today’s grain environment and inform his forward-looking perspective.

Market Strategist Lane Dungan provides an in-depth analysis of the latest USDA reports, including the Quarterly Grain Stocks and January WASDE. He compares forecasted figures with actual results and examines how these updated data points are likely to influence market dynamics. Additionally, Lane offers a technical outlook, highlighting key chart patterns, support and resistance levels, and discussing potential market trends as we move into 2026.

Crude oil continues to hover near sixty dollars a barrel as the market digests OPEC’s decision to hold production steady, rising inventories, and signs of softening global demand. Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Market Strategist, breaks down what is driving the current mild surplus backdrop, why the front month keeps gravitating toward the sixty dollar level, and how a flat forward curve reflects tempered long-term expectations. 

He also digs into the latest EIA data, China’s slower manufacturing activity, and the technical setup pointing to contained downside momentum — including what a break below fifty five could mean. Daniel highlights the key catalysts to watch from OPEC signals and capacity audits to macro trends, geopolitics, and yield movements shaping the narrative heading into 2026

Senior Market Strategist John Caruso breaks down the latest jobs numbers, including the missing October employment report and the jump in Challenger job cuts, and explains what they signal for unemployment and market volatility. He walks through his TRM grid, momentum indicators, and the recent five percent S&P correction to sixty six hundred, noting how Nvidia helped steady the broader market.

John also shares his outlook on precious metals, highlighting consolidation patterns in gold and silver, supply tightness, and the bullish setup he sees heading into 2026. He closes with an update on crude oil’s continued downtrend and the macro forces shaping energy prices.