Runaway-Feedbacks-Best-Of.mp3

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ABOUT THE SONG

The Arctic is warming far faster than the global average — ~2-3°C already, about 3-4 times faster than the planet as a whole. Projections vary:

Consequences include seasonal ice-free summers by mid-century, permafrost fires releasing CO2 and methane, and destabilization of AMOC, accelerating sea-level rise and global weather extremes.

If multiple tipping points reinforce each other, the climate may enter a self-perpetuating heating cycle beyond human control. The main candidates include:

Temperature outcomes:

As global mean temperature exceeds 1.5 °C and multiple climate tipping points activate, the critical question is not simply how much warmer the planet becomes, but how quickly feedbacks amplify that warming.

Scientific consensus: Current models suggest that carbon-cycle feedbacks — permafrost thaw, weakening ocean and land sinks, methane release from wetlands, and fire-driven emissions — could add ~0.2-1.0 °C of warming by 2100 on top of direct human emissions. This range reflects assumptions that:

Under a high-emissions trajectory, with multiple tipping elements engaged, the upper end of this estimate (or beyond) becomes more plausible.

My concern: These consensus estimates are already lagging reality. Observations suggest that at least nine major tipping points are not only triggered but are now reinforcing each other. Instead of unfolding over centuries or millennia, the pace is measured in years or decades. Models have struggled to keep up with this rapid nonlinearity.

Regardless of the rise in global mean temperature, cascading feedbacks are already reshaping weather extremes.

In just ten days during July 2025, the U.S. experienced:

These events illustrate how tipping feedbacks manifest in human terms — not only as gradual warming, but as sudden escalations in climate volatility and infrastructure failure.

* Our probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model — which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system — projects that global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops — the domino effect.

From the album “Lulu“