Russia is one of the world’s largest economies. It’s a top energy exporter and a major supplier of wheat, fertilizers, wood, and metals. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Western governments have tried to squeeze Russia’s revenues through unprecedented sanctions, price caps, and export controls. How Russia’s economy responds to war and sanctions doesn’t just matter for Moscow or Kyiv — it matters for the price of fuel in India, the cost of bread in Egypt, and the margins for factories in China.

Understanding what’s really going on in the Russian economy has become essential for anyone trying to design more painful sanctions or predict where global commodity prices are headed next. But what if our model of the Russian economy is fundamentally wrong?

Nicholas Trickett is a political economist and writer who has spent years analysing the Russian economy. When he is not working on his forthcoming book, Empire of Austerity, Nick is covering the global mining and metals industry as an Associate Director at S&P Global.

The Sanctions Age is hosted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj. The show is produced by Spiritland Productions.

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