The War Lab: Exploring the Future of Conflict

Russia's New Way of War: Understanding Cross-Domain Coercion

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Russia's approach to conflict has evolved beyond traditional military might. It's now playing a complex game of coercion, blending nuclear, conventional, and informational tools into a unified strategy designed to manipulate its adversaries' perceptions and achieve its goals without necessarily firing a shot. This is "cross-domain coercion," and it's rewriting the rules of international security.

In this episode, we delve into the intricacies of Russia's strategic thinking, drawing on expert analysis from Dmitry Adamsky's groundbreaking work, "From Moscow with Coercion." We'll decode the Kremlin's playbook, revealing how Russia is seeking to deter and influence its rivals in a new era of great power competition.

Join us as we explore:

  • The Evolution of Russian Deterrence: Trace the development of Russian strategic thought from its early post-Soviet reliance on nuclear weapons to the sophisticated, integrated approach of cross-domain coercion.
  • The Three Waves of Influence: Discover how Russia's concept of deterrence evolved, first focusing on nuclear might, then incorporating conventional forces, and finally embracing the power of information warfare.
  • New Generation Warfare (NGW): The Blueprint for Influence: Understand how the concept of NGW, with its emphasis on soft power, cyberattacks, and manipulating perceptions, shaped Russia's current strategy.
  • The "Battlefield" of Perception: Explore how Russia views the information domain as a critical battleground, seeking to control the narrative and influence decision-making through a combination of digital, technological, and psychological tools.
  • Beyond Cyber Warfare: Learn how Russia's concept of "informational struggle" goes far beyond hacking and social media manipulation, encompassing a holistic approach to shaping an adversary's understanding of reality.
  • Non-Nuclear Deterrence: Flexing Conventional Muscle: Examine how Russia is using advanced conventional weapons, such as precision-guided munitions and long-range strike capabilities, to deter and coerce its rivals.
  • The Nuclear Shadow: Understand the continuing role of nuclear weapons in Russia's deterrence strategy, including the controversial concept of using limited nuclear strikes for de-escalation.
  • "Bor'ba": The Unending Struggle: Grasp the deeply rooted Russian concept of "bor'ba," or "struggle," which views competition as a continuous state, blurring the lines between peace and war.
  • The Cultural Roots of Coercion: Explore how Russia's strategic culture, with its emphasis on asymmetry, "military cunning," and a holistic approach to problem-solving, informs its unique approach to coercion.
  • The Dangers of Miscommunication: Analyze the risks of misperception and inadvertent escalation that arise from Russia's complex signaling and the challenges of interpreting its actions.
  • The Culminating Point of Coercion: Understand how Russia's strategy can become self-defeating if pushed too far, potentially provoking the very conflict it seeks to avoid.

    • We'll also discuss:

    • The limitations and procedural deficits within Russia's cross-domain coercion framework.
    • The need for Western policymakers to develop a deeper understanding of Russian strategic culture.
    • The potential for academic exchanges and track-two diplomacy to bridge the gap in understanding and reduce the risk of conflict.

      • This episode offers a crucial look inside the mind of a major strategic competitor. Tune in to decode Russia's strategy of cross-domain coercion and understand its implications for the future of international security.

      Tags: Russia, Deterrence, Cross-Domain Coercion, New Generation Warfare, NGW, Information Warfare, Cyber Warfare, Nuclear Weapons, Conventional Weapons, Strategic Culture, Military Strategy, International Security, Geopolitics, Dmitry Adamsky.

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      The War Lab: Exploring the Future of ConflictBy CJH