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This is not a bubble
The housing market is hot but leading economists say a crash is not imminent.
Causes of the last housing bubble (2007 - 2008)
- Low down payments
- Flexible mortgage rents
- Oversupply
Why 2021 is different?
The current combination of low inventory and a high buyer demand means the risk of overbuilding
Is minimal
Existing homes for sale 2021: 1.16 Million
Existing homes for sale July 2007: 4 Million
Down payments are up
More money down means more equity at the start. Leading up to the market crash in 2008 down payments
Were low
Typical Down payment in 2021: 15.9%
Down payment in 2007: 9%
More fixed-rate mortgages
Before the 2008 market crash, more buyers gambled with adjustable-rate and fixed-then adjustable-rate
Mortgages
Buyers with adjustable-rate and fixed-then adjustable-rate mortgages:
2020: 4%
2007: 15%
Lending Restrictions are tight
It's harder to qualify for a mortgage you can't afford. Foreclosure filings were at a 15-year low in February 2020 before pandemic forbearance.
Foreclosure filings:
March 2008: 234,685
February 2020: 48,004
April 2021:11,810
Listen to the podcast and find out more!
This is not a bubble
The housing market is hot but leading economists say a crash is not imminent.
Causes of the last housing bubble (2007 - 2008)
- Low down payments
- Flexible mortgage rents
- Oversupply
Why 2021 is different?
The current combination of low inventory and a high buyer demand means the risk of overbuilding
Is minimal
Existing homes for sale 2021: 1.16 Million
Existing homes for sale July 2007: 4 Million
Down payments are up
More money down means more equity at the start. Leading up to the market crash in 2008 down payments
Were low
Typical Down payment in 2021: 15.9%
Down payment in 2007: 9%
More fixed-rate mortgages
Before the 2008 market crash, more buyers gambled with adjustable-rate and fixed-then adjustable-rate
Mortgages
Buyers with adjustable-rate and fixed-then adjustable-rate mortgages:
2020: 4%
2007: 15%
Lending Restrictions are tight
It's harder to qualify for a mortgage you can't afford. Foreclosure filings were at a 15-year low in February 2020 before pandemic forbearance.
Foreclosure filings:
March 2008: 234,685
February 2020: 48,004
April 2021:11,810
Listen to the podcast and find out more!