Attainable Econometrics and Demographic Inputs with Dennis McGill

Season 01 | Episode 10

In this episode, Randy C. Norton, Founder and Chairman of MultiGreen, interviews Dennis McGill, principal and Director of Research at Zelman & Associates. They discuss the possibility that the housing market is entering an overbuild cycle, and how the pandemic and current economic conditions may impact homebuilding.

(1:04) How Dennis started working with Ivy Zelman and co-founded Zelman & Associates(3:26) Zelman’s analysis during the 2007 subprime crisis(5:13) Current market conditions — market outlook is optimistic(6:59) Risk of overbuild cycle, but slow supply chain has increased delivery times(8:45) The supply deficit argument is uninformed(10:13) Pandemic’s influence on primary household formation — mostly negative(12:10) Demographic impacts on housing supply are often misunderstood(15:19) Consumers choose the type of housing before deciding to own vs. Rent(17:42) Current affordability crisis is worse than in 2017, especially for lower incomes(20:38) How inflation hurts the real estate market(24:34) Urban multi-family may be where growth is headed in the housing market(26:18) For Dennis, attainability means income should keep pace with housing costs

Additional mentionsIvy Zelman Subprime Crisis of 2007Harvard Joint Center for Housing StudiesNational Association of Realtors reports2010 Census: Housing2020 Census: HousingMultiGreen’s Housing Goal

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