Attainable Demographics and the Shifts Ahead with John Burns

Season 01 | Episode 11

In this episode, Randy C. Norton, Founder and Chairman of MultiGreen and John Burns, CEO and Founder of John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC), explore how the interplay of supply-side issues, government policy, and consumer choices affect housing markets. They identify key contributors to relative market stability and examine demographic elements playing a key role in driving real estate trends.

(1:10) Impact of money supply on inflation(2:20) Effect of recent federal stimulus initiatives on real estate markets(3:20) Labor and housing markets are giving conflicting signals about “people supply”(4:15) Demographics and inflation as key considerations along with location(5:35) Potential effect of inflation on 30-year fixed mortgage rates(6:25) Federal government’s significant ownership of US mortgages(6:55) Potential of domestic real estate markets to be stable(7:25) Yield curve interpretation and manipulation(8:20) How individuals’ decisions determine whether federal stimulus creates inflation(9:43) How consumers are achieving affordability in the face of housing market chaos(11:18) The varied extent of increased rent nationwide(12:20) Whether current levels of home price appreciation are sustainable(13:10) Why Las Vegas is currently leading the US in employment growth(14:18) Demographic and geopolitical causes of growth in the west, southwest, and southeast(15:20) Unpacking assumptions in inventory shortage estimates to get a more accurate measure(17:20) How housing prices and rents react to supply issues and broader economic events(18:03) How long it will take to resolve the supply shortage(18:45) Understanding and measuring housing supply that is not yet fully accounted for(19:55) Role of high-risk activities as contributors to recession(22:30) Whether we have a housing crisis depends on who you ask(23:35) How Burns defines attainability

Additional mentionsMilton Friedman Jonathan GrayBruce FlattLabor shortage inspiring restaurants to offer worker incentives  Big Shifts Ahead (By Chris Porter and John Burns)Federal ReserveMortgage backed securitiesYield curveSurprising supply elements delaying home building nationwideBaby BoomersShadow inventorySubprime mortgagesAmerican Dream

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