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S10 E37 LEADING INDICATORS with William Eastman
Like last month's show, we have used the latest numbers from the US govrnment for our analysis.
If you have been following the new, especially IBGR.News, the picture isn't pretty and the contraction has just started.
For definitions, reference show FOUNDER SERIES: S10.2.
If forced to provide an explanation, the answer remains we are in the early stages of a recession. With more announcements by major employeers of layoffs by the end of the year, a forecasted reduction in the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index),and the #rd Quarter in a rom of negative GDP, these events will accelerate the contraction. By the end of the year the picture will be clear.
One additional note, we have recalibrated our numbers as the govermen has adjusted the numbers. Today we are using 'official' numbers as it is available.
EPISODE 37: LEADING INDICATORS Leading Indicators July August September Yield Curve 2yr - 3.10 10yr - 2.73 2yr - 3.42 10yr - 3.04 2yr - 4.168 10yr - 3.703 Durable Goods 1.9+ .9+ 0.0 Stock Market 8.39- 9.11+ 4.42- Manufacturing Jobs 12,794 12,852 ? Building Permits 1890m 1517m ?
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By IBGR onAir Talent William EastmanLike last month's show, we have used the latest numbers from the US govrnment for our analysis.
If you have been following the new, especially IBGR.News, the picture isn't pretty and the contraction has just started.
For definitions, reference show FOUNDER SERIES: S10.2.
If forced to provide an explanation, the answer remains we are in the early stages of a recession. With more announcements by major employeers of layoffs by the end of the year, a forecasted reduction in the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index),and the #rd Quarter in a rom of negative GDP, these events will accelerate the contraction. By the end of the year the picture will be clear.
One additional note, we have recalibrated our numbers as the govermen has adjusted the numbers. Today we are using 'official' numbers as it is available.
EPISODE 37: LEADING INDICATORS Leading Indicators July August September Yield Curve 2yr - 3.10 10yr - 2.73 2yr - 3.42 10yr - 3.04 2yr - 4.168 10yr - 3.703 Durable Goods 1.9+ .9+ 0.0 Stock Market 8.39- 9.11+ 4.42- Manufacturing Jobs 12,794 12,852 ? Building Permits 1890m 1517m ?