A strange move in SOFR futures can look like the market expects the Fed to cut in one month and change its mind in the next. This episode explains why that reading is often too literal, and why contract design, meeting timing, and liquidity can matter as much as the policy story itself. The factual setup is that CME’s 3-Month SOFR futures reflect expectations over rolling IMM-based periods rather than simple calendar-month policy bets, and the 2026 FOMC calendar places meetings around late July and mid-September, not in August.