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S1E4 - When the Fed and FRED Seem to Disagree
A lot of retail investors pull up a FRED chart, read a Fed forecast, and assume one of them must be wrong. This episode explains why both can be right at the same time, by unpacking the difference between a monthly inflation reading and the Fed’s year-end projection framework. The factual setup comes from the Fed’s March 18, 2026 SEP, which lists 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7 percent and defines inflation projections as fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter changes, alongside BEA and FRED’s definition of PCEPILFE as the monthly core PCE price index.
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By VoxA lot of retail investors pull up a FRED chart, read a Fed forecast, and assume one of them must be wrong. This episode explains why both can be right at the same time, by unpacking the difference between a monthly inflation reading and the Fed’s year-end projection framework. The factual setup comes from the Fed’s March 18, 2026 SEP, which lists 2026 core PCE inflation at 2.7 percent and defines inflation projections as fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter changes, alongside BEA and FRED’s definition of PCEPILFE as the monthly core PCE price index.