A Decision Intelligence briefing on the 2026 global macro shift: escalating transatlantic trade fracture risk (U.S.–Canada–EU), weaponized protectionism, and scenario-based outcomes for markets. We map the probabilities—Trade Siege (60%), Deal of the Strong (25%), Full Break (15%)—and explain what would trigger each path, from targeted tariffs to a universal baseline tariff regime.

We also unpack the defense supercycle (capital rotation toward hard power), Europe’s defense momentum (including CSG), India’s state-backed scaling (HAL “Maharatna” status), and the strategic implications of sovereign tech bifurcation—especially the role of compound semiconductors (GaN/SiC) across radar, 5G, EV power systems, and military applications. Finally, we explore why CEOs can no longer stay politically neutral and how operational, legal, and compliance risk is changing—plus the uncomfortable question of dedollarization driven by necessity rather than ideology.

If you follow macro, markets, FX, supply chains, defense, and geopolitical risk, this is your actionable framework for the week ahead.

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