Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbreak of a war or regime change attempt in Iran. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, continuing to note the wild swings in individual names even as the overall indices look relatively flat on the surface, while wondering whether some of the recent attempts to play the AI winners/losers game has gone too far and if we could see some mean reversion. We run through a number of individual stock stories as well. Over in macro and FX we note the market shifting into limbo mode, which is raising uncertainty levels uncomfortably. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Two links for today. The one to a great recent podcast on all things FX, speculative stocks and more with Brent Donnelly and another some comments from Jeremy Grantham on the risks to the main indices if two of the "big three" IPOs happen this year.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, we discuss the ongoing "AI Overlay" trade, note another AI-related company that is not a hyperscaler, but is set to spend up to USD 200 billion on capacity expansions in coming years. Elsewhere, we discuss the strength of US treasury and Japans' government bond markets and whether this is contributing to pressure on precious metals. As well, we ponder whether both the US dollar and yen might strengthen against the other major currencies and the next keys for sterling direction. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, a look at everyone attempting to put on the "AI overlay" trade and whether this unsettles confidence in the market more broadly, or just deepens recent and very remarkable dispersion in the performance of many sectors. We also note the intense new focus on Walmart, which reports earnings later this week. Elsewhere, a rundown of macro and FX developments after soft US CPI data reported Friday and much more. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

A reminder to have a look at Friday's John J. Hardy substack post with some great additional links.

Other links discussed on today's pod:

Izabella Kaminska continues to provide some great thought leadership on the implications of widespread disruption from AI and how it can undermine its own future if we don't think through this carefully - particularly this post and her own response to a comment on that post are worth reading.

As mentioned, Michael Every appeared on Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money podcast with his latest thoughts. The overall uncertainty is very important to absorb from the conversation, in addition to the key points.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered an important speech to the Munich Security Conference. 

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, strong notes of general concern as yesterday could have marked the beginning of a broader weakening in risk sentiment, which has so far been avoided amidst the wild churn in individual stocks in the US even as the overall index has chopped around within the high end of the range. The worst thing for this market might be a sudden return of high correlation across stocks. Elsewhere, the JPY rally stalled out on a modest USD comeback as we await key US CPI data today, while treasuries showed interesting signs of serving as a safe haven yesterday and gold did not - stay tuned there!

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, a look at carnage for additional individual names on AI disruption fears even amidst relative market calm in US equities. Elsewhere, a break down of the US jobs report, going way beyond all of the headlines on the January numbers to indicate how little the wiser we are all on the actual state of the US labor market from this specific report. As well, a look at the chunky further JPY rally and whether and how a possible revaluation of the yen might unfold from here. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

A link to John's The FX Trader piece from today.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, we discuss another session marked by notable divergences within the US stock universe, oil markets heading into territory that is starting to look expensive unless geopolitical tensions spill over into actual confrontation, the idea that the best things for gold and silver bulls might be for the price action to just calm down for a while, and the macro backdrop heating up with key US data ahead - especially today's US payrolls revisions, which are far more important than the latest data print. Meanwhile, the JPY is rumbling - can it roar? Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today's episode features a very special guest, Peter Garnry, CEO and co-founder of Gesda Capital, as we discuss everything from Novo Nordisk's performance in the wake of its Wegovy pill release to nearly everything AI-adjacent, from the market's rough treatment of software-as-a-service names of late to the outlook for Mag7 stocks and hyperscalers on their massive AI capital spending arms race. We also look at the risks of passive investing, discuss the SpaceX IPO and much more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Link: The Acquired podcast episode on Google: The AI Company that we referenced on the podcast.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, a look at the US equity market suffering it first real broad sell-off in a while as nearly everything sold off yesterday, with the negative vibes intensifying after the close on news of Amazon.com's titanic spending plans on AI for the coming year. Elsewhere, crypto suffered one of its worst days ever, unsettling risk sentiment further. Also, a look at macro and FX, especially the wobbles in sterling on BoE and political developments. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, a look at a remarkable downdraft in nearly all AI-adjacent stocks, with no category escaping the selling, even as much of the rest of the market posted a positive and even strong day, the latest in wildly gyrating internals. We try to piece together a takeaway and wonder as well whether the European equity market performance has gotten overcooked. Perspectives on the Bitcoin sell-off, FX and macro and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER