Saxo Market Call

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Saxo Market Call episodes

October 13Are treasuries a safe haven again or is that too crazy a notion?
Today we look at yesterday's ugly session for tech and AI-related stocks, noting the follow on action once again in Asia overnight as well, all while the median stock was almost unchanged on the day. Elsewhere, we note US treasuries opening up heavily bid after the bank holiday and wonder whether US treasuries are suddenly serving their traditional role as a safe haven again. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
John's The FX Trader piece from yesterday.
A WSJ long read looks at the risk of a lost generation in China on the weakening economy there.
KKGB's 38-part thread that tries to pick apart the AI bull case, (you have to click around to find the entire thread).
Reuters story looks at the US auto loan market, noting record high defaults and the extension of financing on very old cars.
A hilarious AI-generated parody of a "MarsX colony" on the red planet.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
20 min
October 12A few drops of diesel from Russia and Palantir hits new all-time high.
Today we look at the Russia diesel deal that will, spoiler alert, fail to meaningfully impact the supply situation for any length of time, but also consider the risk of a Ukraine-US rift. Elsewhere, macro traders are holding their breath for this Wednesday's US September CPI report, Palantir has just bolted to a new all time high and earnings season is set to kick off in earnest tomorrow. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Ole's latest rundown of the weekly US futures COT positioning report.
Token prices are collapsing while GPU rents are steady at high levels - something doesn't add up.
Could OpenAI and/or Anthropic be scheming to manipulate US authorities into giving them a bailout and oligopoly status by triggering a harmful hacking event? Here's a possible playbook for the conspiracy theorists.
A geopolitical strategist says that all of the stress points globally are related and part of a wider war. Don't know what to make of his arguments, but worth considering.
FT Big Read looks at Trump's struggle to maintain control of the Senate. If polling is accurate, he should lose both houses, but polling has been very inaccurate in many recent US election cycles.
One forced seller of US treasuries may stop selling soon - a look at the US mortgage bond market - it is big, as in, really big.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
24 min
October 09Was that a market fragility fire drill we just saw there?
Today, a look at the sudden contagion across markets Thursday on the FT reporting that OpenAI's revenue run rate is supposedly lower than OpenAI has claimed, with subsequent analysis inconclusive because of the opacity of the data, allowing markets to largely come full circle from the reaction, but at the same time revealing the risk of market fragility should an important AI-linked company report something negative. Elsewhere, SpaceX is making waves in traditional telephony and earnings season is about to kick off. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
We often pass along plenty of links with skeptical takes on AI, but maybe we should balance out occasionally with more positive taks on potential for this wild AI spending to extend out over the horizon for years to come. Of course, if you would rather listen to uber-skeptic Ed Zitron, you can tune in here, here and here.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is in hot water after comments on the Manchester City FC case - not sure if this is existential for his status as the nation's leader, but a huge test.
The Insider reports on Russia's drone that fortunately failed in August to detonate an aircraft (at a German airport) carrying ammunition bound for Ukraine.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
18 min
October 08Markets on tilt: will we see a proper slide lower?
Today, we note the rather ugly risk off tone across markets, with strong Samsung and TSMC earnings reports received somewhat poorly by the market overnight in Asia. Europe is suffering another weak session even as the key US indices once again managed a resilient performance, but can they continue to do so with the worrisome backdrop? Also today, full coverage of the latest oil spike, EU's natural gas situation, sugar and gold and silver with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Today's FT Big Read is on the leveraging up of hedge fund and semi-institutional players like Citadel and Jane Street and how these have become cash cows for the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. How risky is all that leverage?
Another stab among many out there at how the AI bubble pops. Or will it be called the SI bubble at that point.
World War II sugar rationing in UK provided a valuable experiment on the impact of sugar in the first years of life. Certainly looks like sugar is hazardous for your developmental health.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
27 min
October 07Europe wobbling again as US posts another all-time high.
Today, a look at Europe and the euro looking suddenly troubled again today as France continues to draw negative attention and Eurozone sovereign yield spreads have widened again today after France's Le Pen presented a long term budget plan on Tuesday. Elsewhere, sterling is charging higher against the single currency and Musk's net worth is back close to a trillion USD, chiefly on his SpaceX holdings. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Liaquat Ahamed has written a new book - I have it down as my next read: 1873: The First Great Depression and the Making of the Modern World. It could be a timely one to consider if the current investment binge ends up driving a similar outcome.
Michael Burry recommended a paid substack with a deep-dive on Nvidia and its prospects.
Don't know what to say about this other than to put it out there, but there has been some considerable speculation that Xi Jinping may be suffering from poor health.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
23 min
October 05Rough seas, but calm sailing for equities?
Today, we note the confounding combination of very rough seas in macro and FX as EU sovereign debt stress, yield volatility and a strong US dollar weigh, and yet equities seem to be sailing along as if nothing malicious is afoot. Some coverage of why Tesla and especially SpaceX rallied hard on Friday as the latter moves closer to its plans to launch space-based AI data centers, with Google test units already along for the ride. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Anthropic takes a stab at estimating how quickly (or slowly, actually) the robot overlords will take over human labor.
Ukraine is already deploying robots on the battlefield, with some success.
The Half Macro Half Climate substack points to the tensions that will continue to aggravate the risks for French debt and France's status within the EU on the exodus of assets from the financially troubled republic.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
21 min
October 02Beware the steepening or what's the message?
Today we look at the crush lower in short term sovereign bond yields, especially in Europe, where Germany's bonds were bid while French and even Italian longer dated bonds remain stressed, a key focus for European markets and increasingly for the euro currency. The retreat in most sovereign bond yields has buoyed market sentiment today, but some underlying stress signs are still there, and credit spreads were wider yesterday elsewhere as well. Elsewhere, new geopolitical developments are worth paying attention to, including this weekend's election in Brazil. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Is dynamic AI pricing a great way to optimize your business or will it just annoy customers into going elsewhere? Reuters covers McDonald's attempt to find out. Looks risky.
KKGB notes the risk of a self-reinforcing negative spiral in the current French debt situation from local debt without some dramatic change of course.
BBC says that Meta's Muse is about to make the internet more annoying.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
30 min
October 01Yields must turn here, especially in Europe, or else.
Today, focusing chiefly on the implications for stocks and risk sentiment broadly if yields don't turn lower very soon, especially in Europe, where the focus on France is intensifying while Germany-France yield spreads blow wider and France puts together its budget proposal for the coming year. Some perspectives on how poorly the median US stock is doing relative to the strong overal indices as well and much more on macro and FX.
Links
Rosenberg and Gundlach talk shop for nearly 90 minutes and how the bond market might respond to a coming slowdown and/or crisis.
An audiophile talks what it means to be an audiophile. A bit over the top, but we could all be listening to much better music if we ditch the Bluetooth and ANC.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
20 min
September 30Burnham declares end of Thatcherism. Micron earnings on tap.
Today, a look at a calm market as a massive downdraft in US Consumer Confidence in September failed to weigh. Lots more data ahead before we know where we are with yields through Friday's US September payrolls and others jobs data. Elsewhere, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham declared the end of Thatcherism and prospect for a much more visible hand from the UK government. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Regarding Micron's earnings after the close today, What would Warren Buffett think of Micron? asks the Parabolic substack.
Part 2 of the Michael Every interview on all things geo-strategic, with a particularly compelling discussion on the AGI race between US and China.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
20 min
September 29Stress levels are rising if still not flashing red.
Today, a look back at another dicey day for risk sentiment as global bond yields continued to ratchet higher as we head into month-end and quarter-end with possible portfolio rebalancing in the mix after a remarkable period for fixed income. Elsewhere, our overall global risk indicator is under the most pressure since the Liberation Day episode in the spring of 2025, even if equity market sentiment remains relatively stable. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Michael Every's latest global macro piece: A great deal of concern.
Michael Kao makes a great point on the "rate sensitive narrative" not adding up.
Alexander Stahel claims Hormuz Strait flows are 94% of normal. So what is the oil price doing here still? To be fair, he still points out some concerns.
Izabella Kaminska on how AI assistants might contribute to a rise in funding costs for banks.
FTAlphaville covers US Treasury Secretary Bessent's hire of David Zervos, recycling the latter's own comments on markets.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
25 min

About Saxo Market Call

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For the aspirational trader and financial markets professional. Coming at you most trading days, the Saxo Market Call is the high frequency podcast for real-time analysis of the financial markets…