🧵 Episode Summary

In this episode, Dan and Sean delve into the complexities of tariffs, the decline of U.S. manufacturing, and the philosophical underpinnings of leadership. They challenge conventional narratives around NAFTA, explore the historical impact of events like the bombing of Dresden, and discuss the strategic philosophies of Sun Tzu, Lao Tzu, and Donald Trump. The conversation also touches on the challenges of reshoring manufacturing, the intricacies of global supply chains, and the disparities faced by U.S. sellers on platforms like Amazon.

📚 References & Mentions

• Books:

  • The Maniac (historical fiction on John von Neumann)

  • A Splendid Exchange by William J. Bernstein

  • The Tao Te Ching – Lao Tzu

  • The Art of War – Sun Tzu

  • The Art of the Deal – Donald Trump

• Substacks:
  • Market Memo: Seeing the Stag from Citrini Research -

• Companies:

  • Amazon

  • Apple

  • Craftsman

  • Chevron

  • Exxon

  • Unusual Whales

🕰️ Chapter Breakdown

• 00:00 – Mustelid Mischief: A Ferret Allegory for Tariffs

• 01:18 – Who We Are: Sean and Dan Reintroduce Themselves

• 03:03 – Liberation Day and Tariff Mayhem

• 06:56 – Options, Whiplash, and Quiet Billionaires

• 09:21 – From Bretton Woods to Financialized Fragility

• 13:05 – The Myth of NAFTA and Manufacturing Decline

• 16:23 – America, Socks, and the Imaginary Labor Army

• 19:02 – Merchant Marines and Military Logistics

• 24:33 – Deep Supply Chains, Shallow Solutions

• 29:19 – Nukes and the Trigger Points of War

• 34:03 – The Compound Effects of Complexity

• 36:25 – The Tao of Strategy: Sun Tzu, Trump, and Lao Tzu

• 44:48 – Governance by Table: Three Philosophies Compared

• 48:20 – Amazon’s Tilted Playing Field and Ecom Frustrations

• 52:48 – Bezos vs. Jassy: Vision, Risk, and Systems Thinking

• 59:40 – An Economic NATO? Supply Chain Strategy for the Future

• 1:02:07 – Why We Can’t Make a Wrench

• 1:10:02 – Corporate Whiplash, Lead Times, and Stainless Steel

• 1:14:14 – The Stock Market Is Not the Economy

• 1:17:21 – Book Recs and Trading as Human Nature