0:00 Intro

2:00 Learning goals

SENSEMAKING 101

3:40 Assumed basics: philosophy of science, logical fallacies, critical thinking, Karl Popper

4:30 Science as subdomain within epistemology/sensemaking

5:08 Framework: replicability vs measurability

6:20 Real and objective are not synonymous; the limited usefulness of reductionism

8:40 Essence of sensemaking: earnestness, curiousity, humility

9:57 "Science is the earnest endeavour to put into order the facts and experiences" -- Sir Arthur Eddington

10:32 Types of bias; personal, emotional, cognitive, financial, institutional

15:23 We want to be friends with uncertainty

16:21 Certainty bias; science as fundamentalism, body of knowledge

17:21 Uncertainty bias; postmodernism as post truth, post fact

19:38 Complexity and W.E.I.R.D. bias within social science

22:17 Confidence and certainty; choosing the right epistemic process, axioms, basis for action

23:41 A mature relation to certainty

COMMON MISTAKES & COVID-19

25:52 The most common places where people mess up

27:00 Positivity bias (optimism)

31:28 Catastrophism bias (pessimism)

35:45 Authority bias

37:18 The benefit of not being an expert

38:48 The pro and anti authority memeplexes

43:21 Anti-Trump bias and the Benign China hypothesis

45:39 Hydroxychloroquine & placebo

55:37 David Icke and COVID-19 TRUTH

TOOLS AND PRINCIPLES

59:41 Favorite tools

1:01:20 Childhood bases for biases

1:04:39 Heal before acting

1:09:39 What it takes to lead change

1:10:52 Slow is smooth, smooth is fast

1:12:57 Bias towards analysis over synthesis

1:13:54 Where Occam's Razor fails

1:14:57 How to orient

1:16:57 Don't pollute the information ecology

1:19:28 On asking for help

1:20:46 Einstein's process

1:24:34 Inoculation against propaganda

CLOSING WORDS

1:25:28 On the love of wisdom

1:28:19 On acting from love