Catrin Campbell-Moore (University of Cambridge/MCMP) gives a talk at the Workshop on Five Years MCMP: Quo Vadis, Mathematical Philosophy? (2-4 June, 2016) titled "Self-Referential Probability". Abstract: In this talk we consider situations where what someone believes can affect what happens, for example: Bettie will be able to jump across a river just if she's confident that she'll be able to do so. These situations can cause problems in formal epistemology: what beliefs are rational for such agents? Such situations bear a close relationship to sentences that say something about their own truth, such as the liar paradox, and the vast amount of work in mathematical philosophy on theories of truth can give insights into how to think about these more realistic situations too. Instead of studying type-free truth, then, we think about type-free (subjective) probability, but there are very similar considerations. This therefore provides a traditional area of mathematical philosophy a new and exciting application.