In this episode Dr. Matthew Ford, an Associate Professor for Strategy Division at Swedish Defence University, explores the role of smartphones in modern warfare, particularly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. He discusses how smartphones and the Internet of Things transformed the battlefield, making war more participatory and decentralized. Civilians, through smartphones, have become major players in the information space, blurring the lines between military and civilian roles.

Parts of weapons, including drones, litter the battlefields of Ukraine, yet each fragment is potentially an important clue that can help us understand the dynamics behind the conflict. Damien Spleeters, Deputy Director of Operations at Conflict Armament Research has devoted his career to investigating these ‘little pieces of truth’, using them to hunt down sources of illicit weapons transfers.

As the world comes to increasingly rely on AI systems for generating and handling information, we may become more beholden to systems that we simply don’t understand. Dave Sully, CEO of adversarial AI company Advai, talks us through how and why we need to ‘break’ AI to fully understand and mitigate the potential risks, if we’re going to take advantage of all the potential upsides.

Outline

• AI systems, their vulnerabilities, and testing methods with a UK-based adversarial AI company. (0:00)
• AI systems, their limitations, and the current state of experimentation and development. (4:09)
• AI capabilities, including language translation and agent systems, with a focus on unpredictability and potential risks. (11:58)
• Challenges in deploying AI systems due to lack of understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. (17:02)
• Limitations of current AI tools in generating creative content. (23:35)
• AI systems vulnerability to manipulation through adversarial attacks. (30:19)
• AI security risks and potential flaws. (36:05)
• Integrating AI systems with potential limitations and risks. (40:39)
• AI regulation and ethics, with a focus on potential risks and gaps in current regulations. (46:55)
• AI potential and risks with a focus on mitigating downsides. (52:57)

Intelligence is about understanding the future, but what does the future hold for intelligence? Can the agencies keep up with the rapidly evolving world around us? We discuss these questions with Shay Hershkovitz, author of the Future of National Intelligence and delve into how the combination of new technology, generational shifts, climate change, and the competition for attention are changing the art of intelligence.

Outline

• Intelligence, technology, and national security (0:00)
• Future of intelligence profession, focusing on emerging technologies and their impact. (5:04)
• Transforming intelligence gathering in a rapidly changing world. (10:54)
• Emerging technologies impacting intelligence work, with AI and IoT as key areas of focus. (16:28)
• AI and IoT impact on national security and intelligence, with a focus on the limitations of AI and the importance of human cognition. (20:21)
• Using AI to enhance structured analytic techniques for better insights. (25:19)
• Using large language models to mimic adversary thinking in geopolitical scenarios. (32:04)
• Intelligence failures and the need for a new framework to evaluate effectiveness. (36:33)
• Limitations of early warning systems in predicting strategic surprises. (41:08)
• Using crowdsourcing and AI to improve intelligence gathering. (49:07)
• Outdated intelligence cycle model and its challenges in modern era. (57:54)
• The role of AI in intelligence work, potential benefits and limitations. (1:02:08)
• Transforming intelligence agencies with AI and collaboration. (1:07:59)
• Climate change's impact on national security and intelligence agencies. (1:16:29)

New technology, particularly generative AI, is enabling us to produce and collect information faster and in greater quantities than ever before. But how do we trust what we see and hear? This is the key question we discuss with Sally Walker, a former director at GCHQ, who now advises organisations on creating human-centric information environments.

Outline

• Using data and technology to inform decision-making, with a focus on human capacity and effective leadership. (0:03)
• Challenges in analyzing large amounts of data in various industries. (9:47)
• Diversity, values, and decision-making in intelligence organizations. (14:47)
• Values in organizations and society, with a focus on the challenges of establishing and maintaining values in the modern world. (21:03)
• Information overload and media literacy in the digital age. (29:29)
• Teaching children critical thinking in the digital age. (37:10)
• Social media's impact on decision making and leadership. (42:14)
• Balancing tech advancements with human potential. (47:57)
• Improving critical thinking skills and verifying information in the digital age. (53:14)

Sensing the Signal is a bi-weekly podcast produced by Atreides. In conversations with expert practitioners, we discuss the overlap between data, technology, intelligence, and national security and what it all means for analysts everywhere. How do we know AI is trustworthy? Can battlefield debris hunt down weapon transfers? How is technology transforming national intelligence? Find out answers to these questions and more from leaders in the field.