Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks.

• Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%).

• Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance.

Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form.

• What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance.

Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India.

• Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...]

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Outline:

(00:19) Executive summary

(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence

(09:22) Geopolitics

(09:24) Middle East

(11:18) Europe

(13:18) The Americas

(13:21) Latin America

(16:06) North America

(20:22) Asia

(21:22) Africa

(21:43) Biorisk

(23:07) Economy

(25:08) Nature and climate

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis.

• Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability.

• Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance.

• Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability.

• Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance.

Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Europe

(05:38) Middle East

(08:33) The Americas

(08:36) Latin America

(09:09) North America

(14:51) Asia

(16:26) Africa

(16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

(20:12) Economy

(22:15) Biorisk

(22:43) Nature and climate

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Executive summary

Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase.

• Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI.

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention.

• Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026.

• They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:11) Geopolitics

(03:14) Europe

(07:44) Middle East

(11:58) The Americas

(12:01) Latin America

(13:25) United States

(15:00) Asia

(15:20) Africa

(15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence

(19:11) Economy

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil.

• Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.

• They think there's a 23% chance (10% to 40%) that the US annexes, acquires or enters into a compact of free association with Greenland in 2026. Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 36.5% for the remainder of Trump's term.

• They think there's a 2.5% chance (0.5% to 7%) that the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which can remove the sitting President, will be invoked [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:56) Geopolitics

(03:59) Middle East

(06:07) Europe

(09:42) The Americas

(09:45) Latin America

(13:33) United States

(16:24) Asia

(16:56) Africa

(17:03) Technology and artificial intelligence

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran.

• Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly produced child sexual abuse imagery that was shared on social media.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters believe there's a 42% chance (10% to 75%) that the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall by the end of 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer having power.

• Forecasters think there's a 36.5% chance (34% to 40%) that the US will annex, acquire or enter into a compact of free association with Greenland by January 20, 2029, up from 25% (12% to 40%) at the end of March 2025.

• They believe there's a 67% chance (50% to 90%) that the US will strike a country in Latin America other than Venezuela in 2026.

• They think there's a 43% chance that interim President Delcy Rodríguez will still be the de facto [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:33) Geopolitics

(02:36) Latin America

(09:35) Europe

(11:29) Middle East

(13:37) Asia

(14:09) Technology and artificial intelligence

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Executive summary

Top items

Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites.

• 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US will intervene militarily in a Latin American country in 2026, which could involve airstrikes or strikes from ships, a ground invasion or limited actions on land.

Tech and AI: China is reportedly worried that AI could threaten Communist Party rule in the country but also doesn’t want to overregulate AI and fall behind in a “race” with the US.

• 8.6% (2.2% to 20%) chance that more than 10 people will die in a drone attack (which could involve multiple drones and either state or non-state actors) in an advanced economy (as defined by the IMF) in 2026. Conditional on such an attack, we also estimate that there is a 16% (6.0% to 30%) chance that more than 100 people would die from a drone attack in 2026.

• 83% (75% to 90%) [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(02:03) Geopolitics

(02:06) Europe

(03:41) Asia

(05:39) Middle East

(06:40) The Americas

(06:43) Latin America

(09:01) United States

(09:11) Africa

(09:34) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:56) Biorisk

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Executive summary

Top items

• Geopolitics: The EU opted not to use Russian assets either directly or as collateral to fund Ukraine's defence. The US seized an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and pursued another; one of them was Chinese-owned. The US Congress renewed its military commitments to Ukraine, Taiwan and other allies in Europe and Asia.

• Tech and AI: METR found that Claude Opus 4.5 has the highest measured time horizon on their suite of multi-step software and reasoning tasks, at around 4 hours and 49 minutes. A former DeepMind Director of Engineering thought, very likely incorrectly, that he had solved a Millennium Prize problem with AI assistance, potentially in an example of AI psychosis/AI-catalyzed hubris.

Forecasts

This week, we forecasted on a few of the things we think may or may not happen in 2026. We’ll have more for you next week.

• Forecasters think there's a 5.7% (3% to 15%) chance that the US unemployment rate will rise above 10% at any point in 2026.

• They think there's a 44% (39% to 50%) probability that a major AI lab will hold an IPO.

• They believe [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:39) Geopolitics

(02:42) Europe

(03:46) The Americas

(03:48) Latin America

(06:52) United States

(07:35) More Epstein files were released by the Department of Justice following the success of a discharge petition in Congress, but they were criticised for being heavily redacted. They feature photographs and other materials related to Donald Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Bill Clinton and others.

(09:24) Middle East

(10:26) Asia

(10:52) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:03) Biorisk

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027.

  • Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 80%) probability that they will carry out a strike on Venezuelan land in the next three months.

  • They believe there's a 32% (15% to 50%) probability that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030. Back in February, they gave this a 10% (5% to 25%) chance.

  • They also think there's a 23% (15% to 30%) chance that the EU will use frozen Russian assets (either directly or as collateral) to fund Ukraine's defence by the end of January 2026.

• Tech and AI: Trump signed an executive order aiming to restrict the ability of US states to regulate artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched GPT-5.2.

  • And they estimate a 60% (35% to 75%) probability that the US will have federal or [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:52) Geopolitics

(02:55) Europe

(06:06) Asia

(06:38) The Americas

(12:22) United States

(13:28) Middle East

(13:42) Africa

(13:59) Technology and artificial intelligence

(17:49) Economy

(18:12) Climate and Nature

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027.

• Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of recursive self-improvement.

• Economy: Rumours swirl that Kevin Hassett will be announced as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Trump singling him out as the potential pick.

Forecasts:

• Considering the flurry of recent model releases from the likes of Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek, forecasters updated their estimates on which company they think will be ‘in the lead’ over the next year or so. They estimated the following relatively casual probabilities over who will top Epoch's Capabilities Index on December 31, 2026: Google: 42% (20% to 55%); OpenAI 35% (25% to 45%); Anthropic: 8% (5% to 30%); Others: 13% (8% to 25%).

• Meanwhile, they think there's a 21% (10% to 35%) probability that a humanoid robot will be reported to have been used in combat by the end of 2026.

• [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:30) Geopolitics

(02:33) Europe

(05:08) Asia

(07:06) Middle East

(07:27) The Americas

(08:46) United States

(10:22) Africa

(11:16) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:41) Economy

(14:31) Biorisk

(14:42) Climate and Nature

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Executive summary

Top items:

• Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue.

• Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, and says it's getting harder to rule out that its models are crossing some dangerous thresholds. DeepSeek released a model that reached gold level in the International Mathematics Olympiad.

Forecasts:

• Forecasters believe there's a 6.4% (5.0% to 10%) probability that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January 2026.

• They think there's a 55% (30% to 71%) chance that the US military will attack Venezuelan territory by the end of 2025.

• And they assign a 69% (40% to 81%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026.

Geopolitics

Europe

Talks about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, with US officials in discussions with both sides. US Army Secretary Dan [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(01:40) Geopolitics

(01:43) Europe

(02:37) The Americas

(02:40) Latin America

(04:03) United States

(05:42) Middle East

(07:09) Asia

(08:15) Africa

(08:59) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:54) Biorisk

(11:01) Climate and Nature

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