Executive summary

Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan.

• Will direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, with representatives from both nations present in the same country, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's an 80% (75% to 85%) chance.

• Will the US end its naval blockade of Iranian ports before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 47% (33% to 70%) chance.

• Will US strikes on Iranian territory, excluding strikes on boats, ships and waterborne drones, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 46% (40% to 55%) probability.

Technology and AI: Unauthorized users reportedly gained access to Anthropic's Mythos model.

• Will Anthropic release a model to the general public that outperforms Mythos Preview on over 50% of examined benchmarks including the words “agentic” and “coding” before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 73% (51% to 90%) chance.

Economy: The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Trump's nominee to be Federal Reserve Chair looks set to get a Senate hearing after the Department of Justice dropped its case [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:31) Geopolitics

(02:34) Middle East

(04:18) Asia

(05:26) The Americas

(05:29) The United States

(06:26) The Rest of the Americas

(07:05) Europe

(07:17) Economy

(08:24) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:59) Nature and climate

(12:57) Miscellaneous

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends.

• Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance.

• Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability.

• Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance.

  • If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability.

  • If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate.

    • If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Executive summary

(03:50) Geopolitics

(03:53) Middle East

(06:34) The Americas

(06:37) The United States

(08:55) The Rest of the Americas

(09:33) Asia

(10:08) Africa

(10:23) Economy

(12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place.

• What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance.

• What is the chance that the IRGC will attack a US Navy vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf before June 1 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 50% (40% to 60%) probability.

• What is the chance that Trump will no longer be in office (permanently) before December 2026? Forecasters think there's a 6.7% (4% to 16%) chance.

• Will Israel conduct fewer than 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon during the month of June? Forecasters assign a 65% (45% to 80%) probability to this outcome.

Technology and AI: Anthropic announced that it has developed a new model, Claude Mythos, but it considers the model to be sufficiently dangerous that it has limited access to the model to large tech and [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:45) Geopolitics

(02:48) Middle East

(06:18) Europe

(07:45) The Americas

(07:48) The United States

(09:42) The Rest of the Americas

(10:01) Asia

(10:14) Economy

(11:17) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:54) Nature and climate

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to bomb power and desalination plants in Iran if they do not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after indicating that he’d be willing to walk away from the war without its reopening earlier in the week. Pakistan submitted a fresh ceasefire proposal to both parties.

• Will the US and Israel end hostilities against Iran by April 21, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 20% (8% to 42%) probability.

• Will the US place more than 1,000 troops on the ground in Iran before July 2026? We think there's a 39% (20% to 55%) chance.

  • If so, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate estimate is August 12 2026 (80% CI: May 24 2026 - June 3 2030).

  • If not, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate is May 30 2026 (80% CI: April 20 2026 - Sept 13 2027).

• Will Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party win the Hungarian parliamentary election? We think there's a 44% (35% to 60%) chance.

Technology and AI: The authors of AI 2027 updated their forecasts. Anthropic accidentally leaked the source code to Claude Code.

• [...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(03:36) Geopolitics

(03:39) Middle East

(08:22) Europe

(09:52) The Americas

(10:41) Asia

(10:55) Economy

(11:56) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:26) Biorisk

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Israel attacked a number of steel and nuclear sites in Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the beginning of the Iran War. US Marines and Special Operations Forces have arrived in the Middle East, amid increasing discussion of the potential deployment of US combat forces in Iran.

• Will the Houthis attack or seize at least one ship before May 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 64% (50% to 77%) chance.

• Will the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 25% (18% to 30%) probability of a government being in power that does not include the IRGC.

• Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 66% (55% to 80%) chance.

Technology and AI: Epoch announced that one of its FrontierMath open problems was solved for the first time, by GPT-5.4 Pro. A federal judge temporarily halted the Pentagon's designation of Anthropic as a supply-chain risk.

• Will AI have solved at least 1 problem that qualifies as a “solid result” in Epoch's FrontierMath: Open Problems collection [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Middle East

(08:03) Europe

(09:05) Asia

(09:55) The Americas

(10:21) Economy

(14:11) Technology and artificial intelligence

(16:19) Biorisk

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: More oil and gas facilities in the Middle East were targeted in Israeli and Iranian attacks. Another US Marine unit is being deployed to the Middle East. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power infrastructure, and Iran threatened to retaliate against critical sites including desalination plants; Trump has backed down for now and says US-Iran talks are ongoing.

• Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% chance (14% to 55%).

• Will the US place >10,000 boots on the ground before July? Our forecasters think there's a 13.5% probability (4% to 27%).

Technology and AI: An AI agent at Meta reportedly went rogue recently, exposing sensitive data to those who should not have had access. An AI security researcher says that there have been other “loss of control” incidents over the past year.

• Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 5% chance (3% to 7%).

Economy: The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly closed for over three weeks, and several more weeks of [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:46) Geopolitics

(02:49) Middle East

(07:44) Asia

(08:09) The Americas

(09:29) Europe

(09:45) Economy

(12:40) Technology and artificial intelligence

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US bombed Kharg Island, home to Iran's main oil terminal, but spared its oil facilities. A US Marine Expeditionary Unit is being sent from Japan to the Middle East. Trump said that NATO faces a “very bad future” if its members don’t send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 42% (20% to 75%) chance,

• Will 10 or more desalination plants in the Middle East be attacked from March 16 to April 15, 2026? Our forecasters assign a 11% (5% to 20%) probability of this happening.

• When will the US cease major military operations against Iran's territory along with air and naval assets? Our forecasters’ aggregate point estimate is April 19 (March 28 to May 10).

Technology and AI: Anthropic is suing the Pentagon for designating the company a supply-chain risk, with Microsoft filing an amicus brief in support of Anthropic's case. A wide range of voices, including Yoshua Bengio, Steve Bannon and Susan Rice, signed the Pro-Human AI Declaration, with polling [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Middle East

(09:52) Asia

(10:10) Europe

(10:54) The Americas

(12:18) Economy

(14:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The Iran War continues, with the US and Israel continuing to strike targets in Iran and Iran continuing to launch drone and missile attacks. Iran is launching decreasing numbers of missiles over time.

• Will the US place at least 1,000 US troops in Iran before May? Our forecasting team gives this a 21% (7% to 38%) chance.

• Will there be more than 100 combined US and Israeli deaths before July? Forecasters think there's a 38% (15% to 60%) chance.

• Will weekly shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to at least 75% of pre-war levels before April and before May? Our forecasters think there's a 39% (20% to 58%) probability before April, and a 61% (50% to 75%) chance before May.

• What will be the maximum Brent crude oil price before April and before May? Forecasters estimated maxima of $135 ($110 to $150) and $143 ($112 to $175) respectively.

• Will the month of April see no airspace closures outside Iran that are related to the Iran War? Forecasters think there's a 39% (30% to 55%) chance of this happening.

And: Trump continues to hint that he’d like to see [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:18) Geopolitics

(03:21) Middle East

(06:52) Asia

(08:51) Europe

(09:19) The Americas

(10:08) Economy

(13:00) Technology and artificial intelligence

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly.

• Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof.

• Will there be >50 US fatalities (civilian or uniformed) anywhere in the world linked to the conflict in Iran or attributed to Iran or its proxies by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (35% to 60%) chance.

• Will there be >100 Israeli fatalities (civilian or uniformed) linked to the conflict in Iran by the end of 2026? The team believes there's a 58% (45% to 70%) probability.

• Will Israel's airspace reopen before April 2026? With Israeli authorities saying they may very gradually reopen their airspace over the next week, most forecasters are now at >95% here.

• Will the Houthis seize or sink at least one ship before May 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 42% (20% to 68%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic was designated a [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:02) Geopolitics

(03:05) Middle East

(07:35) Asia

(08:11) Latin America

(08:31) Technology and artificial intelligence

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly.

• Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof.

• Will there be >50 US fatalities (civilian or uniformed) anywhere in the world linked to the conflict in Iran or attributed to Iran or its proxies by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (35% to 60%) chance.

• Will there be >100 Israeli fatalities (civilian or uniformed) linked to the conflict in Iran by the end of 2026? The team believes there's a 58% (45% to 70%) probability.

• Will Israel's airspace reopen before April 2026? With Israeli authorities saying they may very gradually reopen their airspace over the next week, most forecasters are now at >95% here.

• Will the Houthis seize or sink at least one ship before May 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 42% (20% to 68%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic was designated a [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:02) Geopolitics

(03:04) Middle East

(07:36) Asia

(08:12) Latin America

(08:31) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.