Sentinel Minutes

By Sentinel Team

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out.

Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team ... more

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FAQs about Sentinel Minutes:

How many episodes does Sentinel Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 51 episodes available.

Sentinel Minutes episodes:

December 22, 2025″🟩 AI unemployment and IPOs in 2026, EU funds Ukraine from its own pockets, US seizes Chinese-owned tanker || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #51/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
Top items

Geopolitics: The EU opted not to use Russian assets either directly or as collateral to fund Ukraine's defence. The US seized an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and pursued another; one of them was Chinese-owned. The US Congress renewed its military commitments to Ukraine, Taiwan and other allies in Europe and Asia.

Tech and AI: METR found that Claude Opus 4.5 has the highest measured time horizon on their suite of multi-step software and reasoning tasks, at around 4 hours and 49 minutes. A former DeepMind Director of Engineering thought, very likely incorrectly, that he had solved a Millennium Prize problem with AI assistance, potentially in an example of AI psychosis/AI-catalyzed hubris.
Forecasts
This week, we forecasted on a few of the things we think may or may not happen in 2026. We’ll have more for you next week.

Forecasters think there's a 5.7% (3% to 15%) chance that the US unemployment rate will rise above 10% at any point in 2026.

They think there's a 44% (39% to 50%) probability that a major AI lab will hold an IPO.

They believe [...]

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Outline:
(00:22) Executive summary
(02:39) Geopolitics
(02:42) Europe
(03:46) The Americas
(03:48) Latin America
(06:52) United States
(07:35) More Epstein files were released by the Department of Justice following the success of a discharge petition in Congress, but they were criticised for being heavily redacted. They feature photographs and other materials related to Donald Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Bill Clinton and others.
(09:24) Middle East
(10:26) Asia
(10:52) Technology and artificial intelligence
(14:03) Biorisk

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First published:
December 22nd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-unemployment-and-ipos-in-2026

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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16min
December 15, 2025″🟩EU freezes Russian assets, US and Iran seize oil tankers, Trump restricts AI regulation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #50/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027.

Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 80%) probability that they will carry out a strike on Venezuelan land in the next three months.

They believe there's a 32% (15% to 50%) probability that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030. Back in February, they gave this a 10% (5% to 25%) chance.

They also think there's a 23% (15% to 30%) chance that the EU will use frozen Russian assets (either directly or as collateral) to fund Ukraine's defence by the end of January 2026.

Tech and AI: Trump signed an executive order aiming to restrict the ability of US states to regulate artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched GPT-5.2.

And they estimate a 60% (35% to 75%) probability that the US will have federal or [...]

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Outline:
(00:20) Executive summary
(02:52) Geopolitics
(02:55) Europe
(06:06) Asia
(06:38) The Americas
(12:22) United States
(13:28) Middle East
(13:42) Africa
(13:59) Technology and artificial intelligence
(17:49) Economy
(18:12) Climate and Nature

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First published:
December 15th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-freezes-russian-assets-us-and

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
19min
December 08, 2025″🟩US signals diminished role in NATO, Russia-Ukraine talks falter, Hassett likely to become next Fed chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #49/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027.

Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of recursive self-improvement.

Economy: Rumours swirl that Kevin Hassett will be announced as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Trump singling him out as the potential pick.
Forecasts:

Considering the flurry of recent model releases from the likes of Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek, forecasters updated their estimates on which company they think will be ‘in the lead’ over the next year or so. They estimated the following relatively casual probabilities over who will top Epoch's Capabilities Index on December 31, 2026: Google: 42% (20% to 55%); OpenAI 35% (25% to 45%); Anthropic: 8% (5% to 30%); Others: 13% (8% to 25%).

Meanwhile, they think there's a 21% (10% to 35%) probability that a humanoid robot will be reported to have been used in combat by the end of 2026.

[...]

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Outline:
(00:20) Executive summary
(02:30) Geopolitics
(02:33) Europe
(05:08) Asia
(07:06) Middle East
(07:27) The Americas
(08:46) United States
(10:22) Africa
(11:16) Technology and artificial intelligence
(13:41) Economy
(14:31) Biorisk
(14:42) Climate and Nature

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First published:
December 8th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-signals-diminished-role-in-nato

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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16min
December 01, 2025″🟩 Airspace closed over Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine talks continue, DeepSeek reaches gold IMO level || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #48/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue.

Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, and says it's getting harder to rule out that its models are crossing some dangerous thresholds. DeepSeek released a model that reached gold level in the International Mathematics Olympiad.
Forecasts:

Forecasters believe there's a 6.4% (5.0% to 10%) probability that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January 2026.

They think there's a 55% (30% to 71%) chance that the US military will attack Venezuelan territory by the end of 2025.

And they assign a 69% (40% to 81%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026.
Geopolitics
Europe
Talks about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, with US officials in discussions with both sides. US Army Secretary Dan [...]

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Outline:
(00:20) Executive summary
(01:40) Geopolitics
(01:43) Europe
(02:37) The Americas
(02:40) Latin America
(04:03) United States
(05:42) Middle East
(07:09) Asia
(08:15) Africa
(08:59) Technology and artificial intelligence
(10:54) Biorisk
(11:01) Climate and Nature

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First published:
December 1st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/airspace-closed-over-venezuela-russia

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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12min
November 24, 2025″🟩 Ukraine peace plan, US continues activity around Venezuela, state AI regulation moratorium round 2 || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #47/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week

Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue.

Forecasters believe there's a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026.

They estimate that there's a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026.

Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated [...]

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Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(02:45) Geopolitics
(02:48) Europe
(05:35) The Americas
(05:37) Latin America
(08:39) United States
(09:26) Middle East
(10:37) Asia
(10:46) Technology and artificial intelligence
(14:26) Economy
(15:29) Biorisks

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First published:
November 24th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-peace-plan-us-continues-activity

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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17min
November 17, 2025″🟩 Rising China-Japan tensions, Iran seizes oil tanker, AI-directed cyberattacks disrupted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #46/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it disrupted an AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign.

Economy: The President of the New York Federal Reserve convened an emergency meeting with top Wall Street dealers to discuss signs of stress in money markets.
Forecasts:

Forecasters estimate that there's a 61% (45% to 75%) chance that the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan will resume peace talks by the end of March 2026.

They think there's a 70% (50% to 90%) chance that the Houthis will refrain from attacking ships in the Red Sea through the end of March 2026.

They believe there's a 73% (50% to 90%) chance that the US will carry out an attack on Venezuelan territory before the end of 2025, and a 47% (20% to 70%) chance that Nicolás Maduro will still be [...]

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Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(01:51) Geopolitics
(01:54) Asia
(04:44) Middle East
(06:50) The Americas
(06:53) Latin America
(09:23) United States
(10:26) Africa
(10:37) Europe
(11:04) Technology and artificial intelligence
(13:28) Economy
(14:20) Biorisks
(14:50) Climate

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First published:
November 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/rising-china-japan-tensions-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
16min
November 10, 2025″🟩 Iran drought warning, rebels agree to Sudan ceasefire, Trump tariffs threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher.

Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deployed by the end of the year, and it may be state-of-the-art on some benchmarks.

Economy: The US Supreme Court hinted that it would rule against most of Trump's second-term tariffs.
Forecasts:

Forecasters estimate that there's a 25% chance (18% to 35%) that any form of ceasefire between Sudan's government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be in place on January 1, 2026.

They think there's a 13% chance (6.0% to 25%) that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January.

And they believe there's a 71% chance (55% to 90%) that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump's use of a 1977 law to impose the majority of his second term tariffs was [...]

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Outline:
(00:20) Executive summary
(01:45) Geopolitics
(01:47) Middle East
(06:02) Africa
(06:54) The Americas
(06:57) South America
(08:24) United States
(09:18) Europe
(09:39) Asia
(10:04) Technology and artificial intelligence
(12:39) Economy

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First published:
November 10th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-drought-warning-rebels-agree

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
15min
November 03, 2025″🟩 Trump threatens to send troops to Nigeria and denies Venezuela attack plans, China-US trade détente || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #44/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan.

Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of attacking Venezuela. Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan.

Tech and AI: OpenAI plans to develop an automated research intern by September 2026, and a true AI researcher by March 2028. Its restructuring into a for-profit Public Benefit Company was approved by the Attorneys General of California and Delaware.

Economy: A one-year trade truce between China and the United States was agreed, covering tariffs and export controls.
Forecasts:

Forecasters now believe there's a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week.

They think there's a 2.2% chance (range: 1% to [...]

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Outline:
(00:31) Executive summary
(02:22) Geopolitics
(02:25) The Americas
(02:28) South America
(04:40) United States
(06:08) Middle East
(09:04) Africa
(10:37) Europe
(11:07) Asia
(11:24) Technology and artificial intelligence
(13:48) Economy
(15:19) Biorisk

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First published:
November 3rd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-to-send-troops-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
17min
October 27, 2025″🟩 Aircraft carrier ordered to the Venezuelan coast, chance of Trump 3rd term, bird flu spreading with fall migration || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #43/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, belikewater
Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies.

Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from Geoffrey Hinton to Steve Bannon to Prince Harry.

Economy: Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on imports from Canada after Ontario aired an anti-protectionism ad featuring clips of Ronald Reagan.

Biorisk: The fall migration of wild birds is causing bird flu to spread rapidly in Europe, with the highest number of countries reporting early outbreaks for at least a decade, though there haven’t been as many total outbreaks as in 2022.
Forecasts:

Forecasters believe that there's a 6% chance (range: 1.5% to [...]

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Outline:
(00:22) Executive summary
(02:06) Geopolitics
(02:09) The Americas
(02:12) South America
(06:20) United States
(09:00) Asia
(10:02) Middle East
(11:53) Africa
(12:25) Europe
(13:34) Technology and artificial intelligence
(16:34) Economy
(17:06) Biorisk

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First published:
October 27th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/aircraft-carrier-ordered-to-the-venezuelan

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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19min
October 20, 2025″🟢 CIA authorized to operate in Venezuela, Trump walks back China tariff threat, Budapest to host US-Russia meeting on Ukraine || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #42/2025.” by Nuño Sempere
90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted.

Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Trump authorized the CIA to carry out covert and lethal operations in Venezuela. Putin and Trump agreed to meet in Budapest for a fresh discussion on how to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried but failed to secure Tomahawk missiles from the US.

Economy: Trump said that imposing an additional 100% tariff on China would not be workable. Two regional banks in the US disclosed issues with bad loans.

Tech and AI: The UK's internal security agency, MI5, warned of scenarios in which humans might lose oversight and control of AI.

Biorisk: We may be [...]

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Outline:
(00:28) Executive summary
(02:34) Geopolitics
(02:37) Middle East
(05:09) Europe
(07:03) The Americas
(07:06) South America
(09:42) United States
(12:43) Asia
(14:34) Africa
(15:34) Technology and artificial intelligence
(18:14) Economy
(21:49) Biorisk
(23:54) Nature and climate

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First published:
October 20th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/cia-authorized-to-operate-in-venezuela

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
...more
25min

FAQs about Sentinel Minutes:

How many episodes does Sentinel Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 51 episodes available.