Executive summary

Geopolitics: The Iran War widened, with a port in Egypt being hit, Tehran threatening Cyprus and Bulgaria, and Ukraine striking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Hamas said it would give up its heavy weapons if Israel withdraws from Gaza, but Israel said it would not withdraw until Hamas gives up the weapons.

• Will Iran or its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) strike the territory of Bulgaria or Romania before October 1, 2026 with a ballistic missile, drone, or covert attack that is credibly attributed? Our forecasters think there's a 9% (5% to 15%) chance.

• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be selected by the President of Israel and successfully form a government after the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026? Our forecasters give this a 47% (30% to 65%) probability.

Technology and AI: OpenAI and Anthropic said they found more evidence of their models having been involved in attempted or actual cyber breaches. More than 1 thousand employees of frontier AI labs signed an open letter calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools to “pace” the frontier of automated AI development.

• In the US [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:27) Geopolitics

(02:30) Middle East

(05:29) Europe

(06:38) Asia

(07:04) United States

(09:13) North Africa

(10:27) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:49) Biorisk

(14:53) Economy

(19:15) Climate and nature

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Executive summary

Technology and AI: A combination of OpenAI models was revealed to be behind the recent cybersecurity breach at Hugging Face (🟡). A bipartisan bill named the AI Kill Switch Act was introduced to the US House of Representatives.

• Will the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before January 3, 2027? Our forecasters think there's an 18% (12% to 27%) chance.

• By December 31, 2027, will OpenAI or any of its directors, officers, or employees be arrested, charged, penalized, or subjected to formal regulatory or criminal enforcement action for conduct related to the Hugging Face attack? Our forecasters believe there's a 2.6% (1% to 9%) probability.

Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis carried out strikes on each other, while the US and Iran paused fighting for over two days, with Oman attempting to mediate a fresh ceasefire deal.

• Will the United States and Iran announce a new ceasefire by the end of August? Our forecasters think there's a 60% (40% to 70%) chance.

Biorisk: The number of confirmed deaths in the Ebola outbreak reached 1,407, up from 930 last week.

• How many confirmed deaths will there [...]

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Outline:

(00:18) Executive summary

(02:11) Technology and artificial intelligence

(05:29) Geopolitics

(05:32) Middle East

(07:11) Europe

(09:18) Latin America

(09:48) Asia

(10:15) Africa

(10:25) United States

(12:50) Biorisk

(14:53) Economy

(16:58) Climate and nature

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continued its nightly strikes on Iranian territory, while Iran retaliated against Gulf states and against US bases in Jordan and Iraq, killing at least three US servicemembers. Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis ended a four-year truce, and the Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which could disrupt shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

• Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before September 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (10% to 45%) chance.

• Will a new temporary or permanent ceasefire agreement be reached and put into effect between Iran and the US before September 2026? The team believes there's a 53% (21% to 70%) probability.

• Will the price of Brent crude oil reach $100 per barrel before 2027? Our forecasters believe there's a 68% (60% to 80%) chance.

• Will the Houthis attempt to seize or sink at least one ship before September 2026? Forecasters think there's a 69% (51% to 77%) chance.

Technology and AI: Chinese startup Moonshot AI launched Kimi K3, an open-weight model that approaches frontier models produced by OpenAI and Anthropic in its capabilities. [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:23) Geopolitics

(02:26) Middle East

(04:34) Europe

(07:35) Asia

(09:13) United States

(12:05) Technology and artificial intelligence

(15:01) Biorisk

(18:05) Economy

(18:39) Climate and nature

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman.

• Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 64% (60% to 68%) probability that this will occur.

• Between now and the end of the year, will Brent crude reach a price of $100 per barrel again? Forecasters give this a 29% (20% to 34%) chance.

Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-5.6 following a US government review process and claimed that it produced a proof of a decades-old mathematical conjecture in under an hour. The US government is considering an executive order that would regulate open-source AIs, while China is mulling export controls on its most advanced models.

• Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher? We give this a 73% (65% to 80%) chance.

• Will China restrict foreign usage of its top AI models by March 2027? We’re broadly unsure, at a 45% (22% to 55%) chance.

Biorisk: The Ebola outbreak [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(02:30) Geopolitics

(02:33) Middle East

(04:47) Europe

(06:03) United States

(08:23) Asia

(08:41) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:13) Biorisk

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No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :(

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops.

• Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilization that involves at least one of the following: involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of active-duty reservists to combat zones, or involuntary mobilization of at least 300k male civilians above and beyond the compulsory 12-month draft requirement? We think there's a 41% (15% to 85%) chance.

• Will at least 100 Russian troops enter Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and/or Estonia in hostility (in total), by July 1, 2027? Irregular forces will count. We think there's a 4% (0.5% to 25%) probability.

  • If so, will NATO forces capture or kill at least 100 Russian troops in one or more of these countries, combined, by July 1, 2027 as reported by ISW? There's forecaster dissent [58% (11% to 90%)] as to this probability.

  • If so, will the following countries all come to the military aid of the invaded country(ies): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, France, and Britain? We think there's a 91% (50% [...]

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Outline:

(00:26) Executive summary

(03:03) Geopolitics

(03:06) Europe

(06:22) Middle East

(07:09) Asia

(07:30) United States

(07:57) Africa

(08:52) Technology and artificial intelligence

(11:16) Biorisk

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& Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an emergency following supply shortages and power cuts resulting from Ukrainian attacks.

• Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 43% (30% to 62%) chance.

  • What about on October 15, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 71% (60% to 80%) chance.

• Will Ukraine control all of Crimea by the end of 2026? Our forecasters give this a 14% (3% to 75%) probability.

• Will Putin still be the President of the Russian Federation on July 1, 2027? We think there's a 87% (65% to 94%) chance.

• Will more than 5,000 Pakistani law enforcement, other security personnel and troops be killed in 2026 within Pakistan? Our forecasters think there's a 3.4% (0.1% to 15%) probability.

Technology and AI: Alex Bores, who co-authored one of the world's few pieces of legislation that attempts to mitigate catastrophic risks [...]

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Outline:

(00:29) Executive summary

(02:55) Geopolitics

(02:58) Middle East

(04:46) Europe

(06:11) United States

(08:08) Asia

(08:55) Africa

(09:11) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:22) Biorisk

(14:28) Nature and climate

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Ebola is really about to take off.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest attack on Moscow to date, striking an oil refinery, and began EU accession talks.

• Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 43% (30% to 60%) probability, but see below for the operationalization of the question.

  • What about on October 15, 2026? Forecasters think there's a 61% (60% to 65%) chance.

• Will Ukraine become a full member of the European Union before 2030? Our forecasters believe there's a 22% (11% to 45%) probability.

Technology and AI: Open-weight models are narrowing the gap with closed-weight frontier models on some benchmarks. The US fears that China has access to a lithography machine used to manufacture chips that is produced exclusively by Dutch company ASML.

• Will the US government explicitly prevent an AI model trained by a company other than Anthropic from being released to [...]

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Outline:

(00:28) Executive summary

(02:43) Geopolitics

(02:45) Middle East

(04:25) Europe

(05:46) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:18) Biorisk

(12:32) Nature and climate

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy.

• Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability.

• Before August 2026, will a US-Iran peace deal be signed, involving a cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (with or without a toll system)? Our forecasters think there's a 76% (70% to 85%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic's Fable 5 model was released to the general public, before access was revoked for everyone after the US government imposed export controls. The US's Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) was barred from publishing model assessments.

• Will access to Anthropic's Fable 5 model be restored to the US general public before July 2026? Our forecasters are broadly uncertain, giving this a 64% (50% to 75%) chance.

• If so, will non-US citizens residing in Europe gain access to it again? Our forecasters are fairly confident about [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:28) Geopolitics

(03:31) Middle East

(04:30) Europe

(05:02) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:42) Biorisk

(10:19) Economy

(10:49) Nature and climate

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania.

• Before September 2026, will a NATO country invoke Article 4 consultations in response to suspected or proven Russian aggression? Our forecasters think there's a 21% (12% to 40%) chance.

• Will a peace agreement between the US and Iran, that includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping with or without a toll system, be signed before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 28% (21% to 35%) chance.

Technology and AI: Trump signed an executive order that calls on frontier AI labs to provide the US government with early access to their models for pre-deployment testing.

• Will Anthropic, OpenAI and Google DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump's executive order 14409 through the end of 2026? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 77% (63% to 93%) probability.

Biorisk: While the Ebola outbreak continues to grow, hundreds of suspected cases and deaths were removed from official case tallies, with the WHO now reporting 93 confirmed deaths. The New World screwworm has been found [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:23) Geopolitics

(02:26) Middle East

(03:51) Europe

(05:32) The Americas

(05:49) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:12) Biorisk

(11:37) Economy

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Executive summary

Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza.

• Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action between June 1 and September 1, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (7% to 35%) chance.

Biorisk: Reported Ebola deaths continued to rise, though at a slower pace. There are currently between 220 and 300 suspected deaths.

• Will at least two countries besides the DRC have at least 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Bundibugyo Ebolavirus by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% (20% to 50%) chance.

• Will there be more than 20,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola in the current outbreak by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 55% (35% to 70%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic surpassed OpenAI's valuation in its latest funding round.

• What is the chance that Anthropic's valuation will exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 35% (20% to 51%) probability.

Economy:

• Will the hourly Brent crude oil futures [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:11) Geopolitics

(02:14) Middle East

(03:55) Europe

(05:00) Asia-Pacific

(05:33) The Americas

(05:36) Latin America

(05:59) The United States

(07:12) Africa

(07:25) Technology and artificial intelligence

(11:27) Biorisk

(14:00) Economy

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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